博碩士論文 89426012 詳細資訊


姓名 尚靜宜(Ching-I Shang)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 工業管理研究所
論文名稱 專案範圍變動下應變成本之重新配置:系統動態學在專案風險管理的應用
(System Dynamics in Project Risk Management:Reallocating the Contingency Cost under the Project Scope Change)
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摘要(中) The fast changing environment and the complexity of projects has increased risk exposure. Traditional tools and technologies used in the process of risk management are not appropriate owning to its static analysis attribute. The project manager perceives the importance of taking prospective tools to face the challenge and keep the effort to control the project. This research proposes a project risk dynamics model to lead the project manager how to reallocate the contingency cost under the project scope change with a holistic view. By combining the process of risk management and system dynamics analysis in the project management, early signs of risk emergence, which would remain unperceived until problems would aggravate, can be identified in the project. Hence, the project manager can take better advantage offered by System Dynamics modeling, while enhancing the performance of the existing risk management process.
Project scope change creates a series of effects and causes cost overruns that affect the schedule and lower performance in the long run. This research presents a risk dynamics framework that displays a trade-off process between cost and schedule and thereby attempts to revise the contingency cost and keep it under control. A pipeline work package is modeled and discussed.
摘要(英) The fast changing environment and the complexity of projects has increased risk exposure. Traditional tools and technologies used in the process of risk management are not appropriate owning to its static analysis attribute. The project manager perceives the importance of taking prospective tools to face the challenge and keep the effort to control the project. This research proposes a project risk dynamics model to lead the project manager how to reallocate the contingency cost under the project scope change with a holistic view. By combining the process of risk management and system dynamics analysis in the project management, early signs of risk emergence, which would remain unperceived until problems would aggravate, can be identified in the project. Hence, the project manager can take better advantage offered by System Dynamics modeling, while enhancing the performance of the existing risk management process.
Project scope change creates a series of effects and causes cost overruns that affect the schedule and lower performance in the long run. This research presents a risk dynamics framework that displays a trade-off process between cost and schedule and thereby attempts to revise the contingency cost and keep it under control. A pipeline work package is modeled and discussed.
關鍵字(中) ★ 應變成本
★ 專案範圍
★ 系統動態
關鍵字(英) ★ Contingency cost
★ System dynamics
★ Project scope
論文目次 Table of contents
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Research Motivation 2
1.3 Research Objective 3
1.4 Research Method 4
1.5 Research Framework 6
Chapter 2 Literature Review 8
2.1 Project scope changes 8
2.1.1 Causes of Project Scope Changes 8
2.1.2 The Process of Scope Change Control 10
2.2 Contingency Cost 10
2.3 System Dynamics Method 13
2.3.1 Definitions of System Dynamics 13
2.3.2 The Negative and Positive Feedback Loop Structures 14
2.3.3 The Basic Principle of System Dynamics 14
2.3.4 System Dynamics Implementation Procedures 16
2.4 System Dynamics for Project Management 17
2.5 The SYDPIM Framework 21
2.6 Using SYDPIM to Manage Risk Dynamics within the PMBOK Framework 21
Chapter 3 Research Design 24
3.1 Conceptual Framework 24
3.2 Causal Loop Diagrams 27
3.3 Building The Risk Dynamic Model 31
Chapter 4 Modeling Pipeline Work Package 32
4.1 System Dynamic Tool-Stella 32
4.2 Case Background 33
4.3 Model Pipeline Work Package 35
4.4 Concrete Tests on Building Confidence 39
4.5 Model Validation and Calibration 40
4.6 Test the Impact of Policies 49
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 57
5.1 Research Conclusions 57
5.2 Future Research Direction 58
Reference 59
Appendix: Equations of SD for pipeline work case 62
Figures
Figure 1-1 Overview of the SYDPIM process logic 5
Figure 1-2 The framework of this thesis 7
Figure 2-1 A standard system dynamics flow diagram 15
Figure 2-2 Forester’s seven stage of implementation 16
Figure 2-3 Tao’s system dynamics approach 17
Figure 3-1 Overview of project management 24
Figure 3-2 The risk dynamics model framework 25
Figure 3-3 The rework cycle 26
Figure 3-4 Approved process to the scope change project 29
Figure 3-5 Adjustment process between cost and schedule trade-off 30
Figure 4-1 Model pipeline work package 38
Figure 4-2 Contingency cost on different level of scope change 42
Figure 4-3 No change at each period (0% change) 43
Figure 4-4 100% change at the design phase and 0% at pipe work phase 44
Figure 4-5 Contents of contingency cost (100% at design phase and 0% at pipe work phase) 44
Figure 4-6 75% change at design phase and 20% change at pipe work phase 47
Figure 4-7 Contents of contingency cost (75% change at design phase and 20% at pipe work phase) 47
Figure 4-8 Change of overtime policy 50
Figure 4-9 Change workforce policy 51
Figure 4-10 Change of delivery way policy 52
Figure 4-11 Canceling of delivery way policy 52
Figure 4-12 Change of skipping on QA 54
Tables
Table 2-1 Application of system dynamics to project management 19
Table 4-1 Possible contingency items 40
Table 4-2 Contents of contingency cost data 42
Table 4-3 100% at design phase and 0% at pipe work phase 45
Table 4-4 Contents of each contingency cost item (100% at design phase and 0% at pipe work phase) 45
Table 4-5 75% at design phase and 20% at pipe work phase 48
Table 4-6 Contents of each contingency cost item (75% at design phase and 20% at pipe work phase) 48
Table 4-7 Change of overtime policy 50
Table 4-8 Change workforce policy 51
Table 4-9 Change of delivery way policy 53
Table 4-10 Canceling of delivery way policy 53
Table 4-11 Change of Skipping on QA 55
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Chinese literature
1. 陶在樸, “系統動態學”, 五南出版社, 1999
指導教授 曾清枝(Ching-chih Tseng) 審核日期 2002-7-4
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