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姓名 歐曜薪(Yao-Shin Ou)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 企業管理學系
論文名稱 分析師預測與現金增資偏低定價關係之研究
(The Relation Between Analysts' Forecasts and Underpricing of Seasoned Equity Offerings)
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摘要(中) 本研究旨在探究分析師盈餘預測對上市公司現金增資成效之影響。本文從企業生命週期角度切入,首先檢視企業生命週期(Business Life Cycle)是否會成為公開上市公司再回到資本市場進行現金增資的考量因素;其次,本文探討分析師對公司現金增資時是否會產生盈餘預測的樂觀性,並採取Mishkin(1983)的架構驗證市場投資人是否能洞悉分析師預測的特質,以及我國資本市場是否符合效率市場之假說。最後,則以偏低定價作為衡量現金增資公司募資成效的指標,驗證分析師預測偏誤、企業生命週期等變數對偏低定價的影響。
實證結果顯示,位處生命週期中成長期階段的公司與成熟期、衰退期階段的公司相較起來確實比較會從事現金增資,而分析師對成長期公司從事現金增資時的盈餘預測出現了明顯高於位處其他階段公司的樂觀情形,同時市場投資人並無法洞悉分析師的樂觀特質,並反映公司應有的價值在股價之上,顯然我國資本市場的投資人遭受了分析師的愚弄。現金增資公司成效的良窳,經過本研究的實證發現會受到分析師預測偏誤、企業生命週期的影響,而且兩項變數也有交互影響的現象存在。
關鍵字(中) ★ 偏低定價
★ 分析師預測
★ 生命週期
關鍵字(英) ★ Analysts' Forecast Errors
★ Life Cycle
★ Underpricing
論文目次 第一章 緒論..............................................................................................................1
第一節 研究動機與研究問題………………………………………………...…1
第二節 我國上市公司現行現金增資股票承銷方式簡介………………………3
第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………………………...…….5
第一節 企業生命週期……………………………………………………...…….5
第二節 分析師預測………………………………………………….…..……….5
第三節 現金增資…………………………………………………...…………….6
第三章 研究假說………………………………………………………….………..7
第四章 研究方法…………………………………………………………….……..8
第一節 樣本選取……………………………………………………….……….8
第二節 變數衡量……..………………………………………………….………9
第三節 實證模式……..………………………………………………….…….13
第五章 實證結果……..………………………………………………….….…….16
第一節 敘述統計量……..………………………………………………….….16
第二節 企業生命週期評價分析………………………………………………18
第三節 分析師預測偏誤…………………………………………………..….19
第四節 市場效率性之測試…………………………………………………….20
第五節 偏低定價分析……………………………………………………..….21
第六章 結論…………………………………………………………………..….22
參考文獻………………………………………………………………………..….23
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指導教授 曹壽民(Shou-Min Tsao) 審核日期 2004-7-1
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