博碩士論文 91433001 詳細資訊


姓名 柯富聰(Danny Ke)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 資訊管理學系在職專班
論文名稱 電信產業的劇烈變動與管理應變
(Business Strategies and Managerial Measures during the Telecom Bubble)
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摘要(中) 從1997年開始,網際網路上的資料傳輸量(Internet traffic)每年呈現倍數成長,隨著dotcom公司興起,預期大量頻寬的爆炸性成長需求促使通訊產業之蓬勃發展,所以無論是dotcom、datacom、或是telecom公司,股價在1999年或2000年上半年間都達到了頂點,投資人瘋狂買進股票,經營者不斷的以購併的手段來擴大自己的版圖,整個通訊產業(communications)呈現一片欣欣向榮的景象。然而在2000年下半年開始,網路股泡沫化後(dotcom crash),實際的頻寬成長需求亦遠低於預期,過度投資加上經濟不景氣,電信產業也產生史上最大的崩盤現象(The Economist, The Great Telecoms Crash, 2002),其嚴重程度10倍於網路股泡沫化所帶來之影響,全球銀行業因電信業大崩盤所引發的債務風險(exposure)超過一兆美元。許多電信公司的執行長及高階主管相繼被撤換,有的公司在一夕之間進入破產法保護之列,產業大幅裁員也造成數十萬的電信從業人員失去工作,還有為數眾多的投資大眾因為電信業大崩盤而蒙受巨大的損失。
本研究從全球電信產業裡面,挑選數家具代表性的電信設備供應商(telecom equipment supplier)與電信服務商(telecom operator),分別從整體產業面之科技創新、市場需求和投機風潮,個別公司面之營運策略與管理應變,廣泛收集各公司所發佈的消息和各項相關資料、報導,予以徹底之整理與分析,並找出此次電信業大崩盤的關鍵因素,希望能提供給企業高階管理者、投資人與學術研究者一個未來思考的方向,以歷史為殷鑑,避免重蹈泡沫覆轍、做出錯誤的投資決策。
摘要(英) Since 1997, Internet traffic had roughly doubled every year. But much of the industry was betting on it doubling every 100 days. The mythical growth rate was then expected to apply to all forms of telecom traffic. The stock prices of telecom firms soared up in 2000, and M&A activities pervaded the whole industry worldwide. However, since the second half of 2000, the Internet bubble crashed and the global economy also came into slowdown, then the great telecom crash happened. The telecom bust is some ten times bigger than the better-known dotcom crash. The rise and fall of telecoms may indeed qualify as the largest bubble in history. Telecom firms have run up total debts of around $1 trillion.
In this thesis research, several telecom equipment suppliers and operators were picked up for analysis. From the views of technology innovation, market requirement, speculations, telecom firms’ business strategies and managerial measures, many of the related industry reports, market research reports, business news and company announcements were collected and analyzed to find out the root causes for this telecom bubble.
關鍵字(中) ★ 電信產業
★ 電信設備供應商
★ 管理應變
★ 營運策略
★ 電信服務商
關鍵字(英) ★ business strategy
★ telecom operator
★ telecom equipment supplier
★ telecommunication industry
★ telecom bubble
論文目次 目錄 I
圖目錄 III
表目錄 IV
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 2
1.3 研究目的 3
1.4 預期貢獻 3
1.5 研究流程 5
1.6 論文架構 5
第2章 文獻探討 7
2.1 電信產業發展源起 7
2.1.1 電話的發明 7
2.1.2 美國電報電話公司 (AT&T) 8
2.1.3 北電網絡 (Nortel Networks) 9
2.2 電信業的創新技術 10
2.2.1 數位交換機 (Circuit Switching) 10
2.2.2 數據交換機 (Packet Switching) 12
2.2.3 無線通訊系統 16
2.2.4 光纖傳輸系統 21
2.3 電信業投資狂潮 ( 1997 ~ 2000 ) 23
2.4 電信業大崩盤 ( 2001 ~ 2002 ) 25
2.4.1 「經濟學人」專題報導 -- The Great Telecoms Crash 25
2.4.2 美國 -- 世界通訊破產重整、奎斯特通訊假帳醜聞 25
2.4.3 歐洲 -- 德意志電信、法國電信巨額虧損 27
2.4.4 電信設備供應商 -- 北電網絡、朗訊、阿爾卡特大幅虧損 29
2.5 全球經濟史上重大的投資泡沫事件 30
2.5.1 1630年代荷蘭的鬱金香球莖炒作風潮 30
2.5.2 1840年代的鐵路公司風潮 31
2.5.3 1980年代末期的日本不動產狂飆 32
2.6 高科技產業的創新與行銷管理模式 35
2.6.1 維持性(sustaining)創新 vs. 破壞性(disruptive)創新 35
2.6.2 技術採用生命週期 40
第3章 研究架構與研究方法 42
3.1 研究架構 42
3.2 研究方法 45
第4章 資料分析 46
4.1 電信設備供應商 (Equipment Supplier) 53
4.1.1 阿爾卡特 (Alcatel) 53
4.1.2 北電網絡 (Nortel Networks) 57
4.1.3 朗訊科技 (Lucent Technologies) 61
4.1.4 康寧公司 (Corning Incorporated) 65
4.1.5 美商光炬 (JDSU) 68
4.2 電信服務商 (Telecom Operator) 72
4.2.1 世界通訊 (WorldCom) 72
4.2.2 美國電報電話公司 (AT&T) 77
4.2.3 英國電信 (British Telecom) 81
4.3 電信公司所面臨的問題與管理應變 85
第5章 結論與建議 90
5.1 研究結論 90
5.1.1 產業風暴前的營運策略 90
5.1.2 產業風暴後的管理應變 91
5.1.3 歷史的教訓 92
5.2 研究限制 93
5.3 後續的研究建議 94
參考文獻 95
附錄 研究後之補充 101
圖目錄
圖1-1:研究流程 5
圖2-1:X.25與Frame Relay網路通訊協定示意圖 14
圖2-2:GSM網路示意圖 18
圖2-3:IMT-2000空中介面與核心網路標準 20
圖2-4:破壞性創新模型的三度空間圖 36
圖2-5:以採用的相對時間為基礎的採用者分類 40
圖2-6:技術採用生命週期 41
圖3-1:研究架構 44
圖4-1:Alcatel股價走勢圖 (Paris) 56
圖4-2:Alcatel股價走勢圖(NYSE) 56
圖4-3:Nortel股價走勢圖(NYSE) 60
圖4-4:Lucent股價走勢圖(NYSE) 64
圖4-5:Corning股價走勢圖(NYSE) 67
圖4-6:JDSU每季營收統計 69
圖4-7:JDSU股價走勢圖(Nasdaq) 71
圖4-8:AT&T股價走勢圖(NYSE) 80
圖4-9:BT Group股價走勢圖(London) 84
表目錄
表2-1:CENTREX與PBX比較表 11
表4-1:Alcatel營業額 (1999-2002) 55
表4-2:Nortel營業額 (1999-2002) 60
表4-3:Lucent營業額 (1999-2002) 64
表4-4:Corning營業額(1999-2002) 67
表4-5:JDSU營業額(1999-2002) 71
表4-6:WorldCom營業額 (1999-2002) 76
表4-7:AT&T營業額 (1999-2002) 80
表4-8:BT Group營業額 (1999-2002) 84
表4-9:2001-2003相關電信設備供應商之累計裁減員工人數 87
表4-10:2002-2004相關電信服務商之累計裁減員工人數 89
表5-1:電信設備供應商與服務商在產業風暴後之管理應變比較表 91
參考文獻 《中文部份》
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Grove, Andrew S. (1996) Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points That Challenge Every Company and Career, Currency.
2. 李芳齡、李田樹 譯,創新者的解答,天下雜誌股份有限公司,2004年。
Christensen, Clayton M. and Raynor, Michael E. (2003) The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth.
3. 陳正平 譯,龍捲風暴,麥田出版,1999年。
Moore, Geoffrey A. (1995) Inside the Tornado: Marketing Strategies from Silicon Valley’s Cutting Edge, HarperBusiness.
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Moore, Geoffrey A. (1999) Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers, HarperBusiness.
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Chancellor, Edward (1999) Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, Plume.
7. 劉世平 譯,北電網絡,商週出版,2002年。
MacDonald, Larry (2000) Nortel Networks : how innovation and vision created a network giant, John Wiley & Sons.
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Gilder, George (2000) Telecosm: How Infinite Bandwidth Will Revolutionize Our World, Simon & Schuster/The Free Press.
《英文部份》
1. Afuah, Allan (2003) Internet Business Models and Strategies (2nd Edition), McGraw-Hill.
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6. Cowell, Alan (2002) “World Business Briefing Europe: Britain: BT Reverses Loss,” New York Times (Late Edition (East Coast)), New York, N.Y.: Nov 8, 2002, p. W.1.
7. Dillon, Nancy (2002) “Lucent Technologies Cuts 10,000 More Jobs,” Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, Washington: Oct 12, 2002, p. 1.
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《網站》
1. Alcatel,http://www.alcatel.com/,1998 ~ 2002 annual reports & business highlights.
2. British Telecom,http://www.bt.com/,1998 ~ 2002 annual reviews.
3. Corning,http://www.corning.com/,1998 ~ 2002 annual reports.
4. Economist,http://www.economist.com/,telecom related reports.
5. Euroland,http://www.euroland.com/,stock price charts.
6. Google,http://www.google.com.tw/,business news searching.
7. JDSU,http://www.jdsu.com/,1998 ~ 2002 annual reports.
8. Lucent,http://www.lucent.com/,1998 ~ 2002 financial highlights.
9. Nasdaq,http://www.nasdaq.com/,stock price charts.
10. Nortel,http://www.nortelnetworks.com/,1998 ~ 2002 financial reviews.
11. ProQuest,http://proquest.umi.com/,business news searching.
12. Yahoo,http://tw.yahoo.com/,business news searching.
13. 工研院,http://www.itri.org.tw/,industry research reports.
14. 中華電信,http://www.cht.com.tw/,technology explanations.
15. 中華電信企業電子商務網站,http://www.hib2b.com.tw,technology explanations.
16. 文艷,http://china.sina.com.tw/tech/it/t/2003-03-18/0808172178.shtml,全球電信巨頭喊虧 惟英國電信成行業獨秀。
指導教授 林子銘(Jim Lin) 審核日期 2004-7-3
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