台灣地區強地動衰減式研究與路徑效應分析

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姓名

林柏伸(Po-Shen Lin) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

地球物理研究所

論文名稱

台灣地區強地動衰減式研究與路徑效應分析
(Ground-motion attenuation relationship and path-effect studyusing Taiwan Data set)

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摘要(中)

為了建立適合台灣地區機率式地震危害度分析(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, PSHA)使用的反應譜強地動衰減式(spectral ground motion attenuation relationship)，本研究以中央氣象局的自由場強地動觀測網計畫(TSMIP)豐富之強震資料，挑選了60個地殼地震共計5968筆經過基線校正及帶通濾波的強震資料，利用混合效應模型(mixed-effect model)以最大概似法來進行本研究衰減式的迴歸分析，透過非線性迴歸分析來探討地動值與震源、路徑及場址之間的關係，以地震學理論基礎的衰減模型，考慮場址特性(Vs30)、震源機制以及地體構造特性差異，完成適合台灣地區之地殼地震PGA及各週期反應譜衰減式及其殘差分析。
本研究選取有收錄超過20的地震資料的測站，進行路徑效應對於衰減式影響的研究，將這些測站所記錄到的資料進行分析，瞭解路徑以及場址效應對於衰減式標準偏差的影響。對於PGA而言，事件內的對數標準差為0.54，並且可以拆解為測站項0.238、路徑項0.317及剩餘的隨機變異。對於事件間的對數標準差0.342則可以拆解為震源區域項0.177及剩下的隨機變異，如果把測站項、路徑項及震源區域項移除僅考慮自然的隨機變異，則衰減式的標準差將可降低28%。由此結果我們將可以定義一個空間相關的邏輯樹來進行不考慮遍歷性假設的機率式地震危害度分析，獲得更好的成果。

摘要(英)

A strong ground-motion attenuation equation is essential and influential for seismic hazard analysis. Therefore, we need to study the strong ground-motion attenuation relationship for earthquakes in Taiwan. A suitable attenuation equation can express the characteristics of the strong ground-motion attenuation for a region, and can be used to predict the ground-motion value of a specific site for seismic resistance design.
In this study, well processed strong ground-motion data from TSMIP in Taiwan are used to establish PGA and SA attenuation equations. A total of 60 earthquakes with 5968 records are selected and nonlinear mixed-effect model with maximum likelihood method is used to accomplish the regression analysis of ground-motion attenuation relationships for PGA and SA. From the analysis we can estimate ground-motion value with certain earthquake source, distance and site condition.
Strong motion data from Taiwan with at least 20 earthquakes recorded at each station are used to estimate the site and path effects on the standard deviation of empirical ground motion models. For PGA, the intra-event standard deviation of 0.54 ln units is separated into an inter-site term (0.238), an inter-path term (0.317), and the remaining aleatory variability. The inter-event standard deviation of 0.342 is separated into an inter-region term (0.177) and the remaining aleatory variability. Removing inter-site, inter-path, and inter-region terms, the aleatory standard deviation is 28% lower than the total standard deviation with the ergodic assumption. Models of the spatial correlation of the intra-event path terms and the inter-event source region terms are developed for PGA and spectral periods of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 3.0, and 5.0 seconds. These models can be used to define spatially correlated logic trees to capture the epistemic uncertainty in the median ground-motion value needed to conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard without the ergodic assumption, and better achievement would be derived.

關鍵字(中)

★ 反應譜
★ 強地動衰減式
★ 路徑效應

關鍵字(英)

★ response spectra
★ Ground-motion attenuation relationship
★ path-effect

論文目次

中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 v
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 x
符號說明 xi
第一章緒論 1
1.1研究動機與目的 1
1.2文獻回顧 2
1.3 本文研究流程與範疇 8
第二章資料蒐集與處理 13
2.1 強震資料蒐集 13
2.2 強震資料處理 14
2.3 強震資料庫系統之建立 16
2.3.1 地震資訊蒐集 16
2.3.2 測站資訊蒐集 17
2.3.3 地動參數建立 19
2.4 台灣與加州強地動資料特性比較 19
2.4.1 Abrahamson and Silva (AS2006) 20
2.4.2 Boore and Atkinson (BA2006) 20
2.4.3 Campbell and Bozorgnia (CB2006) 20
2.4.4 Chiou and Youngs (CY2006) 21
2.4.5 小結 21
第三章研究方法 40
3.1 衰減模型 40
3.2 衰減式迴歸分析方法 40
3.2.1 最大概似法 40
3.2.2 混合效應模型 42
第四章台灣地區強地動衰減式建立 46
4.1 衰減模式 46
4.2 衰減式迴歸分析成果 47
第五章衰減式標準差的拆解與路徑效應分析 56
5.1 簡介 56
5.2 衰減式標準差的分解 57
5.3 量化路徑效應 60
第六章討論 68
6.1 衰減式比較 68
6.2 衰減式的殘差分析 69
6.3 標準差拆解 69
第七章結論與建議 80
7.1 結論 80
7.2 建議 80
參考文獻 82
附錄 90

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指導教授

李錫堤(Chyi-Tyi Lee)

審核日期

2009-7-30

推文