博碩士論文 93421030 詳細資訊


姓名 蘇宸霆(Chen-Ting Su)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 企業管理學系
論文名稱 融入效率衡量於評價模式之研究---以台灣電子產業為例
(Incorporating Efficiency Measurement into Valuation Model---An Empirical Research of Electronics Industry in Taiwan)
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摘要(中) 企業評價乃是將所有已知資訊與預測性資訊納入考量以求得公司價值的過程。隨著財務理論的發展,評價模式亦日趨多元,其中,Ohlson於1995年以剩餘所得模型(Residual Income Model)為基礎,推衍出企業股價為帳面價值、異常盈餘與非會計資訊的線性組合評價模式。然而,此模式中對於「非會計資訊」未能明確的定義,導致模式的運用上有其未逮之處,因此,本研究導入營運效率的衡量於Ohlson模式中。
本研究利用資料包絡分析法來評估營運效率。而研究之標的為台灣電子業,研究期間為1998年第一季至2005年第三季;經過選樣過程後,計有73間公司、31季的季資料,共計有2263筆資料,運用靜態與動態縱橫資料分析法以觀測融入效率衡量於Ohlson模式的適切性與動態調整過程。
透過上述分析,本研究發現:(1)在靜態分析中,適用固定效果模式,且帳面價值、異常盈餘與效率值對股價都具有顯著的解釋力,其中,帳面價值與效率值對股價有正向影響。(2)在動態分析中,帳面價值、異常盈餘與效率值對股價依然都具有顯著的解釋力,且皆為正向關係;而求算遞延效果發現,遞延一期對當期股價有最大的影響力,之後呈現逐年遞減的現象,直至遞延六期之效果轉而為負。
摘要(英) Valuation is the procedure of transforming current and predictive information into firm’s value. Ohlson (1995) derived from the residual income model (RIM) to deduce that market price of a firm is the linear relation composed of book value, abnormal earning, and non-accounting information. Despite of being comprehensively adopted, the “non-accounting information” item has not been explicitly defined. Therefore, the research introduces the concept of efficiency measurement to revise the Ohlson model.
The methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to make efficiency ratings. And the sample set is the companies of Electronics industry in Taiwan with research window spans from Q1 1998 to Q3 2005, 31 quarters totally. Through the selecting criteria, 73 companies are qualified. Hence, panel data are used to analyze not only static but also dynamic regression.
In static regression, fixed effects model is adopted. Book value, abnormal earning, and efficiency rating have statistic significance on market price; furthermore, book value and efficiency rating have positive relationship to market price. In dynamic regression, book value, abnormal earning, and efficiency rating all have statistic significance with positive relation on market price. Moreover, Lag 1 has the largest effect upon the current market price, and then declining year after year. Finally, the lag effects turn into negative until Lag 6.
關鍵字(中) ★ 遞延效果
★ 資料包絡分析法
★ Ohlson評價模式
★ 動態縱橫資料分析法
關鍵字(英) ★ Ohlson's model
★ Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
★ Lag effects
★ Dynamic panel data analysis
論文目次 TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT... I
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... III
TABLE OF CONTENTS... IV
List of Tables... VI
List of Figures... VI
Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION... 1
Chapter 2 LITERATURE RIVIEW... 4
2.1 OHLSON MODEL... 4
2.2 DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS... 8
2.2.1 CCR MODEL... 9
2.2.1 BCC MODEL... 11
Chapter 3 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY... 13
3.1 EMPIRICAL MODEL AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTION... 13
3.2 SAMPLE SELECTION... 15
3.3 STATIC ONE-WAY PANEL DATA ANALYSIS... 15
3.3.1 FIXED EFFECTS MODEL... 16
3.3.2 RANDOM EFFECTS MODEL... 17
3.3.3 HAUSMAN TEST... 17
3.4 DYNAMIC PANEL DATA (DPD) MODEL... 18
3.4.1 ESTIMATION METHOD... 19
3.4.2 OVERIDENTIFYING RESTRICTION TEST AND SERIAL CORRELATION TEST... 21
3.4.3 LAGGED EFFECT... 22
Chapter 4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND ANALYSIS... 24
4.1 RELATIVE EFFICIENCY MEASUREMENT... 24
4.2 STATIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS... 27
4.3 DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS... 31
Chapter 5 CONCLUSIONS... 37
REFERENCE... 39
APPENDIX... 42
APPEXDIX I: SAMPLE COMPANIES... 42
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指導教授 張東生(Dong-Shen Chang) 審核日期 2006-7-20
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