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姓名 鍾岷宏(Ming-Hung Chung)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 財務金融學系
論文名稱 被忽略公司分析師盈餘預測行為之研究
(Analysts’characteristics and neglected firms)
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摘要(中) 本研究探討(1) 分析師能力和產業經驗與其追蹤被忽略公司決策的關連性,(2)追踨被忽略公司分析師的能力和經驗與盈餘預測錯誤及多期預測關連性,(3)市場對於追蹤被忽略的公司且具有不同能力與經驗之分析師預測修正之股價反應是否有所不同。
實證結果顯示,分析師追蹤被忽略公司決策與其經驗與能力有顯著正相關,而分析師追蹤被廣泛研究公司之決策與其能力則無有顯著正相關,因此,能力高和豐富產業經驗分析師會追蹤被忽略的公司。相較於能力低或經驗不足之分析師,能力高、產業經驗及公司經驗豐富之分析師追蹤被忽略公司時,能提供比較精確預測。如本研究預期,能力高和經驗豐富的分析師比較願意發佈較長期的預測。此外,本研究亦發現能力和經驗愈好的分析師發佈盈餘預測修正,市場股價的反應較大。
摘要(英) This study examines whether the analysts’ coverage decisions are associated with their ability and experience. We also investigate whether the forecast errors and forecast horizon are related to analysts’ ability, industry experiences or firm experiences. The empirical results show that analyst coverage decisions for neglected firms are significantly positively related to their ability and industry experience. In contrast, analyst coverage decisions for most covered firms are insignificantly positively associated with their ability. We also find that high ability and more experienced analysts following a neglected firm can provide more accurate forecasts than analysts with low ability and less experience. This study also demonstrates that high ability and more experienced analysts prefer to issue longer-term earnings forecasts.
This study also examines whether the market’s response to revisions made by high ability and more industry-experience analysts who follow neglected firms will be larger. We find that the impacts on stock prices are significantly positively related to forecast revisions provided by high ability and more experienced analysts.
關鍵字(中) ★ 盈餘預測準確性
★ 市場反應
★ 多期預測
★ 分析師追蹤決策
★ 被忽略公司
關鍵字(英) ★ forecast accuracy
★ multiple period forecasts
★ and market reaction
★ Neglected firms
★ analysts’ coverage decisions
論文目次 Content
1. Motivation 1
2. Literature Reviews 4
2.1 Determinants of analyst coverage 4
2.2 Analysts’ experience and ability 6
3. Hypotheses 9
3.1 Analysts’ characteristics and their coverage decision 9
3.2 Analysts’ characteristics and their forecast performance 11
3.3 Analysts’ characteristics and their forecast horizon 12
3.4 Stock prices reaction to analysts who follow the neglected firms 12
4. Research Design 13
4.1 Analysts’ characteristics and their coverage decisions 13
4.2 Analysts’ characteristics and their forecast performance 17
4.3 Analysts’ characteristics and their forecast horizon 19
4.4 Stock prices reaction to analysts who follows the neglected firms 20
4.5 Data 22
5. Empirical Results 23
5.1 Descriptive statistics 23
5.2 Empirical results 33
6. Robustness Tests 39
6.1 The definition of neglected firms 39
6.2 Market reaction to forecast revisions 44
7. Conclusions 46
References 47
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指導教授 陳慧玲(Hueiling Chen) 審核日期 2007-7-6
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