勞工退休金新制對經濟成長影響之理論分析

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姓名

吳彥成(Yen-Chen Wu) 查詢紙本館藏

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經濟學系

論文名稱

勞工退休金新制對經濟成長影響之理論分析
(Theoretical Analysis: The Impact of the New Labor Pension System on Economic Growth)

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摘要(中)

本文架構一個三期的疊代模型，來分析完全提存之社會安全制度對於經濟成長之影響；本文模型的經濟成長動力來源為人力資本的累積。在借貸完全的資本市場假設下，家計單位可以透過借貸行為極大化個人效用。研究結果顯示，代表性個人退休時，如果僅能獲得個人退休金帳戶之資金運用累積收益，則完全提存制度的施行不會對於經濟成長造成影響。但若代表性個人退休時，除了可以獲得個人退休金帳戶之資金運用累積收益外，還可以獲得政府對於個人退休金帳戶之補貼利息，則在平衡經濟成長率高於實質利率的情況下，提存比率的提高或是利率補貼的幅度加大，均有助於促進經濟成長；相反地，在平衡經濟成長率低於實質利率的情況下，提存比率的提高或是利率補貼的幅度加大，反而妨礙經濟成長。

摘要(英)

This paper develops a three-period overlapping generations model to study the impact of the fully-funded social security system on economic growth. The engine of growth in this model is human capital accumulation. We assume that the credit market is perfect. We find some interesting results. The fully-funded system has no influence on the economic growth, if the typical household just earns the interest form the pension fund when he retired. However, if the typical household not only earns the interest form the pension fund but also obtains interest subsidy from government when he retired, the fully-funded system can exert an influence on the economic growth. However, the direction of the influence depends upon whether the balanced economic growth rate is higher or lower than the real interest rate. If the balanced economic growth rate is higher than the real interest rate, then the higher pension saving rate or the subsidy rate, the higher the economic growth rate. If the balanced economic growth rate is lower than the real interest rate, then the higher pension saving rate or the subsidy rate, the lower the economic growth rate.

關鍵字(中)

★ 勞工退休金新制
★ 人力資本
★ 完全提存制度
★ 經濟成長
★ 疊代模型

關鍵字(英)

★ Economic Growth
★ New Labor Pension System
★ Overlapping Generation Model
★ Human Capital
★ Fully-Funded Social Security

論文目次

中文摘要…………………………………………… i
英文摘要…………………………………………… ii
謝辭……………………………………………… iii
目錄……………………………………………… iv
表目錄……………………………………………… vi
第一章緒論……………………………… 1
1-1 研究動機…………………………………… 1
1-2 文獻回顧…………………………………… 4
第二章基本模型………………………… 9
2-1 廠商之決策問題………………… 9
2-2 代表性個人之決策問題………… 11
2-3 平衡經濟成長率………………… 14
2-4 比較靜態分析…………………… 17
第三章完全提存之社會安全制度……… 21
第四章政府干預完全提存之社會安全制度的運作 24
4-1 政府預算限制式……………………… 24
4-1 代表性個人之決策問題………… 26
4-3 平衡經濟成長率………………… 29
4-4 比較靜態分析……………………………… 32
第五章結論……………………………… 41
參考文獻 …………………………………… 43

參考文獻

中文部分
1. 行政院勞工委員會，2005，「勞工退休金新制」，勞工退休金新制說明會。
2. 陳淼，2004，「人口老化對我國總體經濟的影響與因應之道」，台灣經濟研究月刊，第27卷第11期，21–29頁。
3. 陳虹如、林富玲，2007，「預期壽命延長與社會安全制度對長期所得水準的影響」，經濟論文叢刊，第35卷第一期，1–31頁。
4. 鄭凱方，2004，「勞退新制看的到、領的到？」，經濟前瞻，2004年9月5日，45–49頁。
英文部分
5. Barro, R.J, 1974, “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?” Journal of Political Economy 82, 1095–1117.
6. Becker, G.S. and Barro, R.J., 1988, “A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 103, 1–26.
7. Cigno, A. and Rosati, F.C, 1992, “The Effects of Financial and Social Security on Saving and Fertility Behavior in Italy,” Journal of Population Economics 5, 319–341.
8. Cigno, A. and Rosati, F.C, 1996, “Jointly Determined Saving and Fertility Behaviour: Theory, and Estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA,” European Economic Review 40, 1561–1589.
9. Cigno, A., Casolaro, L. and Rosati, F.C., 2003, “The Impact of Social Security on Saving and Fertility in Germany,” Finanzarchiv 59, 189–211.
10. De Ia Croix, David, 2002, A Theory of Economic Growth: Dynamics and Policy in Overlapping Generations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
11. DeGregorio, J, 1996, “Borrowing Constraints, Human Capital Accumulation and Growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics 37, 49–71.
12. Diamond, P, 1965, “National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model,” American Economic Review 55, 1125–150.
13. Feldstein, M.S, 1974, “Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Formation,” Journal of Political Economy 23, 905–926.
14. Jappelli, T. and Pagano, M, 1994, “Savings Growth and Liquidity Constraints,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 109, 83–109.
15. Kaldor, N., 1963, “Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth,” In F. A. Lutz and D. C. Hague (eds.), Proceedings of a Conference Held by the International Economics Association, London: Macmillan.
16. Mulligan, C.B., 1997, Parental Priorities and Economic Inequality, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
17. Roberts, M. and Fisher, E., 2001, “Funded Pensions, Labor Market Participation and Economic Growth,” Working paper, University of Nottingham Economics Discussion 2–9.
18. Sala-i-Martin, X., 1996, “A Positive Theory of Social Security,” Journal of Economic Growth 1, 277–304.
19. Sheshinski, E. and Weiss, Y., 1981, “Uncertainty and Optimal Social Security System,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 96, 189–206.
20. World Bank, 1994, Averting The Old Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth, New York: Oxford University Press.
21. Zhang, J. and Zhang, J., 2004, “How Does Social Security Affect Economic Growth? Evidence from Cross-Country Data,” Journal of Public Economics 17, 473–500.
22. Zhang, J., 1995, “Social Security and Endogenous Growth,” Journal of Public Economics 58, 185–213.

指導教授

王銘正(Ming-cheng Wang)

審核日期

2007-7-13

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