博碩士論文 946201002 詳細資訊




以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:2 、訪客IP:3.231.228.109
姓名 陳嬿如(Yen-ju Chen)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 大氣物理研究所
論文名稱 衛星資料估算颱風旋轉及強度變化在熱帶氣旋定量降雨預測之研究
(Typhoon Quantitatiive Precipitation Forecast with Satellite-Derived Rotation and Intensity Variation of Tropical Cyclone)
相關論文
★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料於西太平洋颱風特性之分析★ 應用衛星資料於熱帶氣旋之環境場分析
★ 衛星資料反演海氣參數及其在梅雨期海上中尺度對流系統生成發展之應用★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料分析桃芝與納莉颱風之降雨及海氣參數的變化
★ 利用Spot 4衛星的Vegetation資料比較NDVI, ARVI, 及AFRI植被指數與氣溶膠厚度之關係★ 應用衛星資料分析颱風降雨與颱風強度變化之關係
★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料於颱風中心定位及最大風速估算★ 應用衛星資料分析海氣參數與颱風強度變化之關係
★ MODIS在生質燃燒監測之應用研究★ 應用SSM/I衛星觀測資料估算颱風定量降水
★ AMSU衛星資料反演大氣溫濕剖面及其在颱風強度估算上之應用★ 利用HHT之EMD方法分析SSM/I資料估算之客觀指數與颱風強度年際變化關係
★ 模式和SSM/I客觀潛力指數在中尺度對流系統預報上之應用★ SSM/I衛星資料估算之客觀潛力指數與颱風強度變化之關係
★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料分析颱風形成之激發機制★ 應用衛星資料反演之海氣能量參數分析年際大氣環境差異對颱風生成條件之影響
檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]    [Bibtex 格式]    [相關文章]   [文章引用]   [完整記錄]   [館藏目錄]   [檢視]  [下載]
  1. 本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
  2. 已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
  3. 請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。

摘要(中) 近年來,因颱風造成的災害越來越嚴重。颱風挾帶的豪大雨和衍生的土石流,常導致人員和財產的重大損失。因此颱風定量降水預報為目前防災最重要的課題之一。
Kidder等(2005)利用SSM/I、TMI及AMSU等被動式微波資料估算熱帶氣旋降雨,參考官方預報颱風路徑資料,利用平移方法預測24小時後豪大雨的潛勢預報(Topical Rainfall Potential,TRaP),此技術提供一種快速又實用的方法估算定量降雨,應用此方法預測降雨比數值模式的預測更接近於實際觀測(Ferraro等,2005),但是TRaP仍然有許多待改進的空間,例如:TRaP方法中,假設颱風降雨的空間分布不會改變,忽略了颱風會旋轉且強度會改變的事實。
TRaP是美國官方目前使用預報颶風24小時累積降雨量的方法。本篇研究希望改進TRaP方法的假設,考慮颱風旋轉及強度變化的影響。本研究使用SSM/I衛星觀測資料反演降雨率,並用同步衛星紅外線資料估算颱風的旋轉角度及強度變化,預測颱風未來6小時內的累積降雨量,最後和島嶼測站的降雨資料相比較。研究結果發現考慮颱風的旋轉及強度變化對於改進降雨的估算能提升準確度,只考慮颱風的平移時,其累積降雨和測站真實觀測的相關係數為0.79,若同時考慮平移、旋轉與強度變化相關係數可增加為0.96。
摘要(英) In recent year, the damages caused by typhoons are more and more serious.The heavy rainfall from typhoons often causes inland flooding and mudslides that threaten lives and property which affect the livelihood of people. One of the most important areas of typhoon research focuses on the quantitative prediction of a typhoon’s precipitation.
The forecasting from American agencies use the TRaP method to predict a hurricane’s accumulated rainfall for the next 24 hours. This technique is considered fast and practical. The main purpose of this study is to also apply the TRaP method, but take into account the influence from a typhoon’s rotation and intensity variation. This research uses SSM/I data, GOES-9 data and MTSAT data to estimate the instant rainfall brought forth by typhoons between 2003~2005 around Taiwan. The accumulated rainfall is projected every six hours, and compared with the actual rainfall data recorded from the island’s weather stations. The study’s results indicate that by also considering the rotation and intensity of a typhoon, it will further improve the accuracy of the rainfall estimates. The correlation coefficient of accumulated rainfall between station and the method only concern about advection is 0.79.If we consider the advection, rotation and intensity variation of typhoon, the correlation coefficient can increase to 0.96.
關鍵字(中) ★ 熱帶降雨潛勢
★ 熱帶氣旋
關鍵字(英) ★ tropical cyclone
★ TRaP(Tropical Rainfall Potential)
論文目次 摘要....................................................................................................................I
致謝.................................................................................................................III
目錄.................................................................................................................VI
表目錄...........................................................................................................VII
圖目錄.............................................................................................................IX
第一章 緒論.....................................................................................................1
1.1 前言..............................................................................................1
1.2 文獻回顧......................................................................................2
1.3 研究動機與目的..........................................................................5
第二章 資料蒐集與處理.................................................................................8
2.1 GOES-9和MTSAT衛星資料.......................................................8
2.1.1 GOES-9衛星.....................................................................8
2.1.2 MTSAT衛星.....................................................................9
2.2 GOES-9與MTSAT相關性分析.................................................10
2.3 SSM/I衛星資料..........................................................................12
2.4 JTWC最佳路徑資料..................................................................14
2.5 島嶼測站雨量資料....................................................................14
第三章 研究方法...........................................................................................15
3.1 降雨反演式介紹........................................................................15
3.2 決定颱風移動方向與移動速度................................................17
3.3 估算熱帶氣旋旋轉角度............................................................18
3.4 估算熱帶氣旋強度變化............................................................19
3.4.1 去除任一參數之測試結果.............................................20
3.4.2 參數1之測試結果(半徑100~300公里之亮溫標準差)…
………………………………………………………….20
3.4.3 參數2之測試結果(半徑50~200公里亮溫小於-20˚C之面
積百分比)……………...……………………………….21
3.4.4 參數3之測試結果(半徑0~30公里之最大亮溫)……21
3.4.5 參數4之測試結果(半徑0~30公里最大亮溫之距離)…22
3.4.6 參數5之測試結果(半徑20~120公里之最小亮溫)……23
3.4.7 參數6之測試結果(半徑20~120公里最小亮溫之距離)…
………………………………………………………….23
3.5 熱帶氣旋強度與降雨之關係....................................................24
第四章 結果分析與討論.............................................................................. 26
4.1 估算熱帶氣旋強度變化之結果討論........................................26
4.1.1 2003年南卡颱風...........................................................27
4.1.2 2003年蘇迪勒颱風.......................................................28
4.1.3 2003年莫拉克颱風.......................................................28
4.1.4 2003年杜鵑颱風...........................................................29
4.1.5 2004年敏督利颱風.......................................................29
4.1.6 2004年艾利颱風...........................................................30
4.1.7 2005年瑪莎颱風…………………...............................31
4.2 考慮颱風旋轉與強度變化預測降雨之結果............................31
4.2.1 2003年南卡颱風...........................................................32
4.2.2 2003年蘇迪勒颱風.......................................................32
4.2.3 2003年莫拉克颱風.......................................................33
4.2.4 2003年杜鵑颱風...........................................................34
4.2.5 2004年敏督利颱風.......................................................34
4.2.6 2004年艾利颱風...........................................................35
4.2.7 2005年瑪莎颱風...........................................................36
4.3 綜合討論....................................................................................36
第五章 結論與未來展望...............................................................................38
參考文獻.........................................................................................................41
附表.................................................................................................................45
附圖.................................................................................................................63
參考文獻 何姿儀, 2005 : 應用SSM/I衛星觀測資料估算颱風定量降水。國立
中央大學大氣物理研究所碩士論文,92頁。
Aliss, R. J., S. Raman, and S. W. Chang, 1992 : Special
Sensor Microwave/Imager(SSM/I) observations of
hurricane Hugo(1989). Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2723-2737
Barrett, E. C., 1970 : The estimation of monthly rainfall
from satellite data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 98, 322-327.
Chiu, L. S., G. R. North, D. A. Short, and A. McConnell,
1990:Rain estimation from satellites:effect of
finite field of view. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 2177-
2185.
DeMaria, R., 2005: Futher improvements to the Statistical
Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS).
Weather and Forcasting, 20, 531-543.
DeMaria, R., 2006:Statistical tropical cyclone intensity
forecast improvements using GOES and aircraft
reconnaissance data, 27th Conference on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Collins,CO, Amer.
Meteor, Soc.
Demuth, J. L., M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, and T. H. Vonder
Harr, 2004:Evaluation of Advanced Microwave
Sounding Unit tropical-cyclone intensity and size
estimation algorithm. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 282-296.
Dvorak, V. F., 1975 : Tropical cyclone intensity analysis
and forecasting from imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103,
420-430.
Ferraro, R. R., 1997:SSM/I derived global rainfall
estimates for climatological applications. J.
Geophys. Res., 102, 16715-16735.
Ferraro, R. R., P. R. P. Pellegrino, M. Turk, W. Chen, S.
Qiu, R. Kuligowski, S. Kusselson, A. Irving, S.
Kidder and J. Knaff, 2005: The Tropical Rainfall
Potential (TRaP) Technique . Part II: Validation.
Weather and Forcasting, 20, 465-475
Gandikota, V. R. and H. M. Jeffrey, 1997 : SSM/I measured
microwave brightness temperature(TB’s), anomalies
of TB’s, and their relationship to typhoon
intensification. Natural Hazard, 15, 1-19.
Grody, N. C., 1991:Classification of snow cover and
precipitation using the Special Sensor Microwave
Imager. J. Geophys. Res., 96, 7423-7435.
Hollinger, J., R. Lo, G. Poe, R. Savage, and J. Pierce,
1987:Special Sensor Microwave/Imager User’s Guide.
Naval Research Laboratory Washington, D.C., 120 pp.
Joyce, R. J., J. E. Janowiak, P. A. Arkin, and P. Xie,
2004:CMORPH:a method that produces global
precipitation estimates from passive microwave and
infrared data at high spatial and temporal
resolution. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 487-503.
Kidder, S. Q., S. J. Kusselson, J. A. Knaff, R. R.
Ferraro, R. J. Kuligowski and M. Turk, 2005 : The
tropical rainfall potential (TRaP) technique. Part
I : Description and examples. Weather and
Forecasting, 20, 456-464.
Liu, G. R., C. C. Chao and C. Y. Ho, 2006: Improved
typhoon rainfall potential technique Using SSM/I
satellite data. Weather and Forecasting. (Revised)
Olander, T. L., C. S. Velden, and M. A. Turk, 2002 :
Development of the advanced objective Dvorak
technique(AODT) – current progress and future
directions. 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology, San Diego, CA, 15A.4.
Randall, S. C. and L. E. Newman, 2000 : Climatological
relationships between tropical cyclones and
rainfall. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 128, 3329-3336
Rodgers, E. B., and H. F. Pierce, 1994a:A satellite
observational and numerical study of precipitation
characteristics in western North Pacific tropical
cyclones. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 129-139.
Rodgers, E. B., J. J. Baik and H. F. Pierce, 1994b : The
environmental influence on tropical cyclone
precipitation. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 573-593.
Rodgers, E. B. and H. F. Pierce, 1995;A satellite
observational study of precipitation characteristics
in western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J. Appl.
Meteor., 34, 2587-2599.
Smith, E. A., and A. Mugnai, 1988:Radiative transfer to
space through a precipitating cloud at multiple
microwave frequencies. Part II:results and
analysis. J Appl. Meteor., 27, 1074-1091.
Velden, C. S., Olander R Zehr, 1998 : Development of an
objective scheme to estimate tropical cyclone
intensity from digital geostationary satellite
infrared imagery. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 13, 172-183.
Wilheit, T. T., A. T. C. Chang, M. S. V. Rao, E. B.
Rodgers, and J. S. Theon, 1977;A satellite
technique for quantitatively mapping rainfall rates
over the oceans. J. Appl. Meteor., 16, 551-560.
Wilheit, T. T., and A. T. C. Chang, 1980:An algorithm for
retrieval of ocean surface and atmospheric
parameters from the observations of the scanning
multichannel microwave radiometer. Radio. Sci., 15,
525-544.
指導教授 劉振榮(Gin-rong Liu) 審核日期 2007-7-20
推文 facebook   plurk   twitter   funp   google   live   udn   HD   myshare   reddit   netvibes   friend   youpush   delicious   baidu   
網路書籤 Google bookmarks   del.icio.us   hemidemi   myshare   

若有論文相關問題,請聯絡國立中央大學圖書館推廣服務組 TEL:(03)422-7151轉57407,或E-mail聯絡  - 隱私權政策聲明