| 摘要(英) |
Landslide damming a creek is a common phenomenon. According to the historical cases, the landslide dam usually breaks down in a short time after the formation of the lake. Therefore, evaluating the stability of the landslide dam quickly is essential from the hazard mitigation viewpoint. Dam height, dam volume, watershed area and lake volume are identified as important factors influencing the stability of landslide dam. However, systematic evaluating the dependency and significance of the influencing factors is required.
This research utilized multivariate statistical method to screen out the significant variables, including peak flow, dam height, length and width, affected the stability of landslide dam. Based on discriminant analysis and logistic regression, the significance level of the proposed statistical model is acceptable. Since the watershed area is more easier to obtain than the peak flow rate and the lack of dam length and width, an alternative statistical model is proposed using watershed area, dam height, volume as influencing factors. We forecast 84 landslide dams worldwide and The forecast total accuracy rate of statistical model is 78.6% based on discriminant analysis and 66.7% based on logistic regression. Among the selected variables, the peak flow (or watershed area alternatively), is the most important geomorphological parameter for the stability of landslide dam. Finally, multiple regression is adopted to evaluate the longevity of landslide dam. Cases of landslide dams in Taiwan and China are used to verify the proposed model. |
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