氣候變遷對聖文森蒙特利集水區流量之衝擊評估

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蔣諾麗(Noretta Alvena John) 查詢紙本館藏

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國際永續發展碩士在職專班

論文名稱

氣候變遷對聖文森蒙特利集水區流量之衝擊評估
(Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on Streamflow of the Montreal Watershed, St.Vincent)

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摘要(中)

根據研究報告顯示，氣候變遷將多方面影響我們的生活，諸如糧食安全乃至於水資源，水在任何區域的社經發展上均扮演很重要的角色，因此，不管是研究人員對於降雨、逕流的研究，或是一般民眾日常用水的取得，都將受到全球氣候變遷的影響。同屬小型島嶼發展中國家(Small Island Developing States, SIDS) 群體的聖文森及格瑞那丁(SVG) 亦將高度受氣候變遷影響，所以其水資源問題同樣難以迴避。該國依賴河川流量來滿足每日用水所需，據此本研究目標將以該國其中一個主要的流域—Montreal 流域，來探討氣候變遷的潛在影響。由於氣候變遷可能會對流量帶來衝擊，本研究應用TaiWAP 模式(Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Programme)，其包含了氣候變遷情境、氣象資料合成模式及水文模式GWLF 模式(Generalized Watershed Loading Function)，來評估Montreal 流域的流量衝擊，以四種大氣環流模式(Global Climate Models, GCMs) CSIRO-MK3、GFDLCM2.0、MPIM-ECHAM5 及UKMO-HadCM3，模擬SRES A1、A1B 及B1 等三種情境變化，模擬的期程分別為短期(2020s, 2010 -2039)、中期(2050s, 2040 – 2069)、長(2080s,2070 -2099)期，除了進行簡單的降尺度，氣象資料合成也模擬未來日解析的溫度及降雨量，這些資料將與其他參數作為GWLF 模式所需的輸入值。結果顯示，年均溫有0.29oC 到3oC 的上升趨勢，降雨變化趨勢為減少48.02%到增加2.74%的範圍。模擬未來流量的結果顯示，在所有的時期流量大多呈現明顯減少的趨勢，年流量變化預期將減少48.02%或增加13.05%，研究結果可以提供給決策者在制訂水資源相關計畫與管理策略時之參考。

摘要(英)

According to reports, climate change is expected to affect society in a number of ways ranging from food security to water resources. Water plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of any society thus the impact of climate change on freshwater and more so stream flow is of increasing concern to researchers since most people derive daily water supply from this source. The island of St.Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) by virtue of belonging to the group of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is projected to be highly affected by climate change, its water resource being no exception. The island depends on
streams to meet its daily water demand. Taking this into consideration this study aims at assessing the potential effects of climate change on stream flow of the Montreal watershed, one of the island’s major watersheds.
To project the probable impact of climate change on stream flow, Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Programme (TaiWAP) was used since it included climate change scenarios,
weather generator and a hydrological model, the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). The impact on stream flow in the Montreal Watershed was evaluated using climate scenarios based on the predictions of four Global Climate Models (GCMs): CSIRO-MK3, GFDL-CM2.0, MPIM-ECHAM5, and UKMO-HadCM3 under the SRES A1, A1B and B1.
These scenarios were used to assess climate change for three periods namely; the 2020s (2010 -2039), 2050s (2040 – 2069) and the 2080s (2070 -2099). A simple downscaling was done using the GCMs and a weather generator to generate future daily temperature and
precipitation. This data served as input along with other parameters for the GWLF to simulate stream flow.
The results indicated an increasing trend of 0.29oC to 3oC in annual temperature while the general trend for rainfall, though not as clear-cut as that of temperature showed significant decreases with a change in annual rainfall of -48.02% to 2.74%. The simulated future stream
flow indicated an overall trend of significant decreases in all the periods under review. Annual stream flow is anticipated to decrease as low as 48.02% and increase as much as 13.05%. The projected results should be considered by policy makers to aid in water resource planning and
management.

關鍵字(中)

★ 氣候變遷
★ 聖文森
★ 流量
★ GWLF

關鍵字(英)

★ Climate change
★ St.Vincent
★ Stream flow
★ GWLF

論文目次

Chinese Abstract .......................................................................................................................... i
Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... ii
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................iii
Table of Content ........................................................................................................................ iv
List of Tables and Figures ........................................................................................................ vii
Acronyms and symbols .............................................................................................................. x
Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1
Chapter 2 Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Climate change.................................................................................................................. 4
2.2 Climate change Impact assessment methodology ............................................................. 5
2.2.1 Modeling the climate .................................................................................................. 6
2.2.2 Downscaling ............................................................................................................... 7
2.2.3 Climate Scenarios ....................................................................................................... 8
2.2.4 IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ......................................................... 10
2.2.5 Hydrological models ................................................................................................ 11
2.3 Previous research ............................................................................................................ 12
Chapter 3 Study Area ............................................................................................................... 13
3.1 Climate ............................................................................................................................ 14
3.2 Soil ................................................................................................................................. 15
3.3 Economy ......................................................................................................................... 16
3.4 Water resources ............................................................................................................... 17
3.5 Study Site ........................................................................................................................ 18
3.5.1 Montreal watershed .................................................................................................. 18
3.5.2 Climate ..................................................................................................................... 18
3.5.3 Soil and Vegetation .................................................................................................. 18
Table of Content
v
3.5.4 Land use and economic activites .............................................................................. 20
3.5.5 Problems ................................................................................................................... 20
Chapter 4 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 21
4.1 Data collection ................................................................................................................ 22
4.2 Data processing ............................................................................................................... 22
4.3 Model selection: TaiWAP............................................................................................... 23
4.4 Climate scenarios ............................................................................................................ 25
4.5 Model Calibration and validation ................................................................................... 26
4.6 GWLF model inputs ....................................................................................................... 26
4.6.1 Future daily weather data ......................................................................................... 27
4.6.2 Run-off curve numbers............................................................................................. 27
4.6.3 Evaporation Cover Coefficients ............................................................................... 27
4.6.4 Soil water Capacity .................................................................................................. 28
4.6.5 Recession and seepage coefficient ........................................................................... 28
4.6.6 Initial saturated and unsaturated storage .................................................................. 28
Chapter 5 Results and Discussions ........................................................................................... 29
5.1 Model Calibration ........................................................................................................... 29
5.2 Temperature .................................................................................................................... 30
5.2.1 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 35
5.3 Precipitation .................................................................................................................... 36
5.3.1 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 40
5.4 Stream flow ..................................................................................................................... 42
5.4.1 Discussion ................................................................................................................ 46
Chapter 6 Conclusion and Recommendations .......................................................................... 49
6.1 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 49
6.2 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 50
6.3 Problem encountered ...................................................................................................... 50
References ............................................................................................................................... 51
References…………………………………………………………………………………… 56

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指導教授

吳瑞賢(Dr. Ray-Shuan Wu)

審核日期

2009-7-27

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