中國旅遊需求分析：世界遺產的影響

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韓佳君(Chia-chun Han) 查詢紙本館藏

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論文名稱

中國旅遊需求分析：世界遺產的影響
(Analysis of International Tourist Arrivals in China: How important Are World Heritage Lists)

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摘要(中)

本文利用中華人民共和國國家統計局的資料，研究期間為2000年到2005年共計6年，9個來源國赴中國27省的縱橫資料 (Panel Data) 來分析旅遊需求的決定因素，特別是世界遺產對旅遊需求的影響。此外，本文亦探討不同國家的觀光客赴中國旅遊的行為是否存在文化差異。本文得到的實證結果如下：
1.所選取的變數中，大部份變數可以有效率的解釋旅遊需求。來源國的人均國民生產所得愈高，兩地距離愈小，且旅遊目的地的基礎建設完善、治安穩定、景點眾多都會使旅遊需求增加。
2.結果發現，中國的世界遺產或許不是影響旅遊需求的首要決定因素，但確實會對旅遊需求帶來顯著的正向影響。因為中國面積廣大，歷史悠久，相較之下，只有極為少數的景點被列為世界遺產，入境旅遊的觀光客很有可能是被其他著名的景點吸引而來。但世界遺產對於旅遊需求的影響力確實比各省A級景點的影響力還要大。
3.在不同文化背景之下，對於旅遊的行為確實存在著差異。發現在不同的洲別，不同的文化背景之下，對於中國的旅遊需求相差甚大，且各國對於旅遊需求的決定因素也不一樣。

摘要(英)

Along with economic development, people emphasized much more on recreational activities, resulting in the bloom of international tourist in the past few decades. China has ancient history, diverse culture and landscape which make it one of the most popular tourist attractions. The purpose of World Heritage is to preserve the cultural and natural heritage around the world. Country which has World Heritage List can attract a lot of travelers overseas and prosper its tourism industry, however the over visiting will also cause damage to the World Heritage properties. This thesis aims to analyze the determinants of the international tourist arrivals in China, especially how the World Heritage List influence the tourism demand. Utilizing the dataset of National Bureau of Statistics of China to construct a panel data over the 2000-2005 period and employing the technique of the gravity model. The empirical results can be summarized as follow:
First, the results strongly suggest that income in the original country, tourism infrastructure, political stability, and tourist attractions in the destination are key determinants of travel to China.
Second, the World Heritage List is not the key determinant of travel to China, but they are significant in explaining the demand for China as a tourism destination.
Third, the different culture background indeed makes the tourist behavior different. Besides, the different countries have the variant determinants of travel to China.

關鍵字(中)

★ 世界遺產
★ 旅遊需求
★ 旅遊
★ 中國

關鍵字(英)

★ tourism
★ tourism demand
★ World Heritage
★ China

論文目次

第一章緒論...............................................................1
第一節研究動機與目的...........................................1
第二節研究對象與資料來源...................................3
第三節研究方法.......................................................3
第四節研究章節.......................................................3
第二章中國旅遊現況...............................................4
第一節世界文化遺產...............................................4
第二節中國景點劃分標準........................................6
第三節旅遊人次與外匯收入...................................7
第四節旅遊人次的地理分佈與來源分佈..............12
第三章文獻回顧......................................................15
第一節旅遊需求模型..............................................15
第二節國家旅遊需求實證文獻..............................17
第三節本章小結......................................................23
第四章資料處理與實證模型設定..........................24
第一節資料來源與處理..........................................24
第二節實證模型設立與變數說明..........................25
第三節計量分析方法與工具..................................36
第四節本章小結.....................................................40
第五章實證估計結果與分析..................................42
第一節旅遊需求的決定因素..................................42
第二節各國觀光客的旅遊行為是否存在差異......46
第六章結論與建議..................................................52
第一節結論..............................................................52
第二節未來研究方向與建議..................................53
參考文獻...................................................................54

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指導教授

楊志海(Chih-hai Yang)

審核日期

2008-6-20

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