台灣能源安全之動態評估：系統建立與應用

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馮君強(Chun-Chiang Feng) 查詢紙本館藏

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產業經濟研究所

論文名稱

台灣能源安全之動態評估：系統建立與應用

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摘要(中)

隨著時代的演進，能源安全的概念已從一開始的「單一」面向，演變至朝向「多元」的發展。雖然能源安全所涵蓋的範疇多而複雜，包括供應安全、消費安全、生產安全、產業安全、生態安全、環境安全…等，而影響能源安全的因素也相應的極為複雜，包括資源稟賦、經濟狀況、政治態勢、軍事互動…等，但能源供應量的變化及價格的波動一直是兩個改變能源安全狀況的主要起源。基本上，所有會影響到數量變化及價格波動的因素都會直接或間接影響到能源安全的狀況，過去能源安全的核心概念一直較著重在供應安全，然而從需求面的角度來看，整個經濟體系對於能源的依賴程度如可以透過相關政策、科技發展、技術進步、產業結構變遷等有所改變時，當遭受到外在之能源衝擊，經濟體系所受到衝擊的影響大小也就會有所不同。
基於以上，本研究的主要目的係以經濟體系所能承載能源衝擊之能量為核心，從建立一個能源安全評估系統的概念出發，將供應面之風險評估結合到需求面的經濟考量，同時更從事後及事前之角度來評估台灣之能源安全度。從事後的角度來觀察，主要可分析過去台灣能源安全之演變狀況，若從事前的角度來評估，則可以針對台灣未來可能的能源安全軌跡做預警，而當加入一些相關能源政策、新能源科技、產業結構變遷及氣候變遷等之可能變化考量，整個系統對台灣能源安全之可能變化將會有更進一步的掌握。結果顯示，我國過去及未來的能源安全狀況與對能源的依賴程度有很大的關連，當經濟體系的能源效率提升、產業結構偏向低能源密集產業發展、新及替代性能源的引進及發展等，都會顯著提升我國的能源安全度，承受外在能源衝擊的能力也會明顯增加。

摘要(英)

The concept of energy security has developed toward a more complex and multi-dimensional way in recent years. Basically, the fluctuation of supply quantity and price of energy are the main origins that directly affect energy security. Traditionally, supply side security measurement is the main focus for energy security analysis. Yet, the demand side management such as the technological progress, government policy and industrial structure should also be the important consideration in a nation’s energy security assessment. Consequently, it is necessary to take both the supply and demand factors into account and assess the energy security in a more comprehensive framework. This paper aims to present an ex-post and ex-ante energy security analysis for Taiwan which combines an innovative supply risk assessment and a comprehensive demand side structure as represented by a general equilibrium model for energy, economic, and technology analysis together. The ex-post analysis shows the historical path of energy security. The ex-ante analysis results can offer a bigger picture showing the potential energy security problems of Taiwan in the future and serve as an important reference for the government agency in charge of relevant energy policy, development of renewable energy, and climate change issue. Our results indicate that Taiwan’s past and future energy security situation has a close relationship with its degree of dependency on energy. Consequently, improving energy efficiency, shifting industrial production toward low energy-intensive products, and adopting new and alternative energy technologies will significantly improve its energy security and the ability of combating exogenous energy shocks.

關鍵字(中)

★ 能源安全
★ 能源政策
★ 新能源科技
★ 再生能源
★ 氣候變遷

關鍵字(英)

★ Energy Security
★ Energy Policy
★ New Energy Technology
★ Renewable Energy
★ Climate Change

論文目次

第一章緒論 1
第一節研究背景 1
第二節研究目的 4
第三節研究架構 6
第二章台灣能源供需與能源安全狀況 10
第三章能源安全的定義與衡量方法 16
第四章研究方法 22
第一節事後能源安全度評估 23
第二節事前能源安全度評估 59
第五章議題分析 93
第一節技術變動對能源安全之影響 94
第二節氣候變遷政策對能源安全之影響 107
第三節能源政策對於能源安全之影響 116
第六章結論 123
參考文獻 125
附錄一、模型生產巢式結構及函數設定 132
附錄二、模型內外生變數說明 144
附錄三、模型內參數說明 147
附錄四、資料編製說明 148
附錄五、模型V&V (Verification & Validation) 說明 152

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指導教授

朱雲鵬、林師模

審核日期

2015-7-28

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