1978至2014年期間台灣產業結構變動對勞動素質與勞動需求的影響分析

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周孟熹(Meng-Hsi Chou) 查詢紙本館藏

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產業經濟研究所

論文名稱

1978至2014年期間台灣產業結構變動對勞動素質與勞動需求的影響分析
(An Analysis on the impact of Taiwan’s Industrial transition in labor quality and labor demand for the period of 1978-2014)

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摘要(中)

為了解台灣在產業結構變動過程中勞動素質的變化，本文透過可以反映勞動質量變化的勞動投入量化指數之編制，除可明確地說明就業人數與勞動素質對勞動投入增長的相對重要性外，並可進一步分解出勞動素質改善所在的真正泉源。依據本文分析，1978~2014年勞動投入的年均增長率主要是來自勞動素質改善，並且勞動素質改善對勞動投入增長的貢獻度高達75.87％；若再進一步分解勞動素質改善來源，發現最主要是教育水準普遍提升，其次是行業結構的組成，妥善運用農業釋放出勞動資源，可使勞動投入持續增長，並且中高年齡組的工作經驗累積對勞動素質改善效果相當有利的。
另外，對於台灣年均GDP增長率的貢獻來源而言，發現全要素投入(TFP)對經濟成長貢獻下降情況，技術創新真的不可忽視。同時，我們還發現勞動、資本以及全要素投入等各生產投入都有邊際報酬遞減現象，然而以各要素成分對GDP增長率貢獻來看，專科以上的高人力資本相對勞動投入的比重卻呈現遞增，台灣是新興工業化國家(newly industrialized country)，因為生產投入的邊際報酬遞減，追趕效應(the catch-up effect)使得我們經濟成長遲緩，額外的生產投入對生產力增長效果遞減，然經濟成長主要的貢獻來源有賴勞動投入的勞動素質的提升，尤其是專科以上的高人力資本的運用，唯有善用這些專業技術的人力資源，才能創造持續穩定經濟成長的另一高峰。
勞動素質的提升是台灣經濟成長主要貢獻來源，尤其是教育水準的強化，所以我們也很想了解台灣在迎向全球化過程中，所帶來產業結構變動中對本國勞動需求的衝擊，以及教育對這些產業有否展現應有的特質，於是我們透過勞動需求模型推導，運用行政院主計處與經濟部統計處的數據深入分析，實證發現外生性的衝擊對各產業的影響不一致，然勞動需求彈性大部分都提高了，主要是透過替代效應的路徑影響勞動市場的波動，也增加勞動者的就業風險和不確定性，若欲降低勞動需求的就業風險，主要還是要提升勞動素質，尤其是教育培訓確實能提升面對外來衝擊的應變力，當然勞動市場制度與就業保障的相關對應措施的配合是有必要性，既可降低勞動市場的負面衝擊，同時又能有穩定就業積極正向的作用。

摘要(英)

To understand the changes of labor quality in the process of industrial structure transition, this article compiles labor input indices that capture both employment changes and quality improvement of labor in Taiwan, from 1978 to 2014. Up to 75.87% of average annual labor input growth is from quality improvement. Further decomposition reveals that the most important source of growth is educational attainment, followed by industry structure. Making good use of agricultural release, population is transferred into the nonagricultural sector, and the advantage of cumulative work experience of the high-aged labor resource is quite favorable for improving the effect of labor quality.
For the source of contributions to Taiwan’s annual GDP growth rate, we found that the contribution of total factor inputs (TFP) to economic growth is declining, so that technological innovation cannot be ignored. We also found that labor, capital and TFP all show diminishing returns. However, with the contribution of each input component to GDP growth rate, the proportion of highly skilled human capital to labor input is relatively large and increasing. Taiwan is a newly industrialized country, but because of diminishing returns to factor inputs, catch-up has been slower than hoped. Adding to factor inputs has a relatively small effect on productivity. The main source of continuous economic growth is from labor quality, especially from highly skilled human capital. Making good use of these human resources creates a stable source of sustained economic growth.
Labor quality is a major contributor to Taiwan’s economic growth. Therefore, it is especially important to raise the educational level. Looking to the process of globalization, we see that this brought about changes in industrial structure that impacted on the local demand for labor. Education aimed at specific industries should show whether there are particular qualities these industries require. We applied the labor demand model and used DGBAS data and data from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Statistics Department for our in-depth analysis. Our empirical findings are that the impacts of exogenous shocks are inconsistent for the various industries and the elasticity of labor demand has increased for most of them. The main impact of fluctuations in the labor market is through the substitution effect, but this also increases the workers’ employment risks and uncertainties. To reduce the risk to employment in labor demand, the quality of labor should be enhanced, especially through education and training, which can really improve resilience to external shocks. Of course, we must have coordinated response measures related to labor market institutions and the employment security system to reduce negative impacts on the labor market, while also playing an active and positive role in stabilizing employment

關鍵字(中)

★ 勞動投入
★ 勞動素質
★ 教育
★ 勞動需求彈性

關鍵字(英)

★ labor input
★ labor quality
★ education
★ labor demand elasticity

論文目次

中文提要 i
英文提要 ii
誌謝 v
目錄 vi
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 ix
一、緒論 1
1-1 研究動機與目的 1
1-2 研究架構 4
二、文獻回顧 7
2-1 勞動素質觀念建立 7
2-2 教育的重要性 9
2-3 勞動需求的變化 12
2-4 產業結構轉型對勞動需求影響 16
Reference 21
三、勞動素質的變化 25
3-1 勞動素質估計 25
3-1-1 勞動素質理論模型設定 25
3-1-2 勞動素質的資料處理 29
3-2 實證結果分析-勞動素質的估計結果 30
3-3 結論 38
Reference 40
四、勞動素質與經濟成長的關聯性 42
4-1 理論模型設定 42
4-2 勞動素質與經濟成長的資料處理 44
4-3 勞動素質對經濟成長的影響 44
4-4 結論 46
Reference 49
五、台灣產業結構變動對勞動需求的衝擊 51
5-1 理論模型說明 51
5-2 資料處理 59
5-3 產業結構變動對行業勞動需求影響的實證分析 62
5-3-1 產業轉型中的勞動市場波動 62
5-3-2 農工服務業之勞動需求的實證分析 66
5-3-3 各行業勞動需求彈性分析 69
5-3-4 製造業四大工業的勞動市場波動 71
5-3-5 產業轉型、貿易開放與台灣勞動市場波動 74
5-4 結論 84
Reference 85
六、結論與建議 87
6-1 勞動素質變化對經濟成長關聯性綜合評估 87
6-2 產業結構變動對勞動需求的衝擊 89
附錄一 91

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指導教授

單驥(Gee San)

審核日期

2016-7-19

推文