博碩士論文 983202076 詳細資訊




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姓名 謝玟倩(WenChien Hsieh)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 土木工程學系
論文名稱 機車紅燈怠速熄火節能減碳效果評估
(Evaluating the effect of Motorcycle Idling Stop during Red Time on Energy saving and Carbon reduction)
相關論文
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摘要(中) 台灣地區機車總量不斷攀升,相對廢氣排放量亦日漸增加,適逢國內對於交通號誌紅燈倒數計時器逐步推廣建置之同時,基於全球暖化議題,交通環境政策之制定實應進一步探討生活科技對於降低環境傷害,提供更舒適、更為永續之環境給予下一代。本研究利用存活分析理論中之Cox等比率危險模式應用於機車騎士紅燈怠速熄火意願之研究,透過條件評估法進行問卷設計調查,經過資料整理、模式構建、參數校估及模式配適檢定後發現,「節能減碳認知」、「機車使用特性」、「健康認知」以及「個人屬性」四大類變數確實可以有效解釋機車騎士紅燈怠速熄火意願。透過存活函數相對風險概念以及判斷中位存活時間,可以觀察出解釋變數的改變帶來的實際效益─熄火時間的增加,結合實際調查路口資料,計算各變數等級變動下之溫室氣體每年CO2、CH4、N2O排放減量;發現「油價上漲」對於怠速熄火策略影響最佳。
摘要(英) The total amount of motorcycles increased continuously as well as the emissions of pollution. Under the issue of global warming, the development of traffic and environmental policies should be further investigated into life science and technology while the installation of Traffic Signal Countdown Displays, in order to reduce environmental harm, to provide a more comfortable and sustainable environment to the next generation.Within The theory of survival analysis, Cox proportional hazard model was applied in to investigate motorcyclists’ willingness to do idling stop on the red light by means of the contingent valuation method questionnaire survey. Through data compilation, model construction, parameter calibration and goodness of fit test for the model, the result shows that motorcyclists’ behavior of idling stop on red is significantly influenced by four major categories: "the awareness of energy saving and carbon reduction awareness," "the characteristics of using motorcycle," "the health Awareness," and "personal property." Using the Cox model as a model of relative risk and determine the median survival time, we can observe the change of variables to count the actual benefits ─ the increase of idling stop time. Combine the fact-finding intersection data, we can calculate the increase of idling stop time with the variable of Greenhouse gases,the exhaust pollutant can be reduced in CO2、CH4、N2O per year;For the idling stop strategy of the best is "oil price rising".
關鍵字(中) ★ 存活分析法
★ 怠速熄火
★ Cox等比例危險模式
★ 節能減碳
關鍵字(英) ★ idling stop
★ energy saving and carbon reduction
★ Cox proportional hazard model
★ survival analysis
論文目次 摘要................................................................................................................................ i
Abstract .......................................................................................................................... v
致謝............................................................................................................................... vi
目錄.............................................................................................................................. vii
表目錄........................................................................................................................... ix
圖目錄........................................................................................................................... xi
第一章 緒論.................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 研究動機......................................................................................................... 1
1.2 研究目的......................................................................................................... 2
1.3研究內容.......................................................................................................... 3
1.4研究流程.......................................................................................................... 3
第二章 文獻回顧.......................................................................................................... 4
2.1 條件評估法..................................................................................................... 4
2.2 存活分析法..................................................................................................... 7
2.3 汽機車怠速停等........................................................................................... 11
第三章 條件評估法.................................................................................................... 19
3.1 理論發展與應用........................................................................................... 19
3.2 設計原則與步驟........................................................................................... 20
3.3 詢價方式....................................................................................................... 21
3.4 常見偏誤....................................................................................................... 23
第四章 問卷調查與分析............................................................................................ 26
4.1 問卷設計....................................................................................................... 26
4.2 調查結果分析............................................................................................... 28
第五章 研究方法........................................................................................................ 32
5.1 存活理論....................................................................................................... 32
5.2 Cox等比率危險模式 .................................................................................... 36
5.3模型配適檢定................................................................................................ 38
5.4 等比率危險模式檢定................................................................................... 40
5.5 中位存活時間............................................................................................... 41
第六章 實證分析與應用............................................................................................ 42
6.1 分析流程....................................................................................................... 42
6.2 Cox等比率危險模式 .................................................................................... 43
6.2.1 變數定義............................................................................................ 43
6.2.2 模式配適檢定.................................................................................... 45
6.2.3等比率危險模式檢定......................................................................... 48
6.3 影響變數分析............................................................................................... 50
6.3.1 相對風險............................................................................................ 50
6.3.2中位存活時間..................................................................................... 57
6.4 紅燈怠速熄火效果推估............................................................................... 60
6.4.1 實際路口調查分析............................................................................ 60
6.4.2 熄火時間增量.................................................................................... 63
6.5 節能減碳成效推估....................................................................................... 79
6.5.1節能量推估......................................................................................... 79
6.5.2溫室氣體推估..................................................................................... 81
第七章 結論與建議.................................................................................................... 88
7.1結論................................................................................................................ 88
7.2建議................................................................................................................ 89
參考文獻...................................................................................................................... 90
附錄.............................................................................................................................. 94
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指導教授 吳健生(Jiann-Sheng Wu) 審核日期 2011-7-13
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