動態市場潛能之多世代跨產品擴散模型研究：以電視產業為例

以作者查詢圖書館館藏

、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士

、以作者查詢全國書目

、勘誤回報

、線上人數：29

、訪客IP：3.17.155.232

姓名

張琬渝(Uan-Iu Jang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

動態市場潛能之多世代跨產品擴散模型研究：以電視產業為例
(Application of a multi-generation and inter-product diffusion model with dynamic market-potential concept: an empirical analysis of TV Industry)

相關論文

★ 二氧化鈦技術生命週期之研究	★ 整體後勤業參與同步工程於產品開發績效關係之研究—以中科院為例
★ 筆記型電腦之IFA/PIFA天線技術生命週期分析	★ 國籍航空公司經營績效分析－以資料包絡分析方法分析
★ 從專利分析看3D IC技術與市場發展	★ 影響企業導入電子發票系統成效之因素探討
★ 影響企業導入數位學習成功因素之探討-以個案公司為例	★ 產品生命週期管理系統導入成功要素之探討--以S科技公司為例--
★ 組織創新能力影響因素研究	★ 製造業閒置資產轉售平台製造業閒置資產轉售平台-以廣達電腦股份有限公司為例
★ 供應商先行者優勢探討-以宸鴻科技為例	★ 團隊領導者創新特質與開放式創新專案關係之研究
★ 從商業生態系統談樞紐者策略-以Apple 與Nokia 為例	★ 個人電腦的競爭與發展策略-以台灣電子產業為例
★ 應用兩階段資料包絡分析法評估高級職業學校之經營績效	★ ERP導入的促進因素:使用者觀點

檔案

[Endnote RIS 格式]

[Bibtex 格式]

[相關文章]

[文章引用]

[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

至系統瀏覽論文 ( 永不開放)

摘要(中)

Bass(1969)提出的擴散模型在日後的行銷學研究上被大量引用，但此擴散模型侷限在預測單一世代的銷售量，Norton and Bass(1987)則提出多世代擴散模型，強調不同世代產品間銷售量的替代效果，本研究則延續Kim, Chang and Shocker的模型，探討多世代以及跨產品的替代效果外，再更進一步地將所得變數加入此預測模型中以探討所得效果對於產品銷售量的影響。
本研究以CRT TV和LCD TV兩種產品為對象，最後得到LCD TV在本研究模型中有著比前兩個多世代擴散模型較高的配適度，顯示所得為影響消費者購買LCD TV產品的重要因素之一，另外我們也發現當每人平均所得增加時消費者對於19吋以下的電視機產品的購買也會增加，20吋以上的電視機產品則是減少購買。另外，加入所得變數的本研究模型其LCD TV19吋以下產品和CRT TV19吋以下產品則產生了替代效果。檢視兩產品的創新系數和模仿系數可得知消費者購買CRT TV的行動受到外部效果的影響較大，而LCD TV則相反。
總和以上，本研究模型可提供相關業者更準確地預估銷售量，並且還可觀察多世代產品和跨產品間的替代關係，以及景氣變化時消費者對於產品的購買行為為何，當產品上市時則可以幫助業者做正確的行銷決策。

摘要(英)

From traditional CRT TV to new technology TV such as LCD TV, PDP TV and 3D TV, technology innovations make the TV market uncertainly, so developing a model that can forecast the market share is important , and that could help TV producers make well decisions in R&D、marketing 、human resource… etc. Bass (1969) proposed a diffusion model, but Bass just considered a single generation product. Norton and Bass (1987) modified the Bass model; they brought up a Multi-generation diffusion model. Kim, Chang and Shocker (2000) verified Norton and Bass model, considered market potential isn’t constant, instead is dynamics. Therefore, we focus on Kim, Chang and Shocker model, besides we add income variable to market potential function.
We use traditional color CRT TV and new technology LCD TV to examine substitution effect with intercategory and Multi-generation, and also observe income effect, in the end we got a much higher R-squared. We also found the CRT TV propensity to innovate is higher than that imitate, and LCD TV is opposite. Moreover, it’s positive effect with income to under 20-inch TV, above 20-inch TV is opposite. The conclusion can help producer to forecast the market share effectively and do right decisions.

關鍵字(中)

★ Chang and Shocker模型
★ Kim
★ Norton and Bass模型
★ 非線性最小平方法

關鍵字(英)

★ Chang and Shocker model
★ NLS
★ Norton and Bass model
★ Kim

論文目次

中文摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
致謝詞 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
第一章緒論 1
第一節研究背景 1
第二節研究動機 2
第三節研究目的 3
第二章文獻探討 4
第一節創新擴散的定義 5
第二節 Bass擴散模型 6
第三節 Bass模型的修正 11
第四節多世代擴散模型 16
第三章研究方法 24
第一節研究設計與架構 24
第二節研究模型 27
第三節參數估計法 31
第四章實證分析 35
第一節 Norton and Bass多世代擴散模型 35
第二節 Kim Chang and Shocker連結不同產品之動態多世代擴散模型 39
第三節修正後之本研究模型 47
第五章結論與建議 55
第一節研究結果與討論 55
第二節行銷管理意涵 57
第三節研究限制 60
第四節後續研究建議 61
參考文獻 62

參考文獻

壹、中文部分：
〔1〕工研院IEK，「2010平面顯示器年鑑」，2010年。
〔2〕吳志成，「全力一薄-談短管映像管對TV市場的影響」，產業情報研究所(MIC)財團法人資訊工業策進會，2004年。
〔3〕經濟部統計處，「資訊電子工業生產統計月報」，
貳、英文部分：
〔1〕Bass,F.M, "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables",Management Science, Vol.15, pp.215-227,1969.
〔2〕Danaher, J. D., B. G.S. Hardie, W. P. Putsis JR, "Marketing-Mix Variables and the Diffusion of Successive Generations of a Technological Innovation", Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 38, pp.501-514,2001.
〔3〕Dodsin,J.A., and Muller,E, "Models of New Product Diffusion Through Advertising and Word-of-mouth", Management Science,Vol.24,pp.1568-1578,1978.
〔4〕Fisher, J. C., Pry, R. H, "A simple substitution model of technological change", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 3, pp. 75 – 88,1971.
〔5〕Frenzel, Alexander, Grupp, Hariolf, " Using Models of Innovation Diffusion to Forecast Market Success: a Practitioners' Guide". Research Evalution. Vol.18(1),pp.39-50,2009.
〔6〕Gatignon H., Eliashberg J., and Robertson T. S., "Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology", Marketing Science, Vol.8(3), pp.231-247,1989.
〔7〕Horsky, D.C., "The Effect of Income,Price,and Information on the Diffusion of New Consumer Durables". Marketing Science,Fall,pp.342-365,1990.
〔8〕Horsky,D.C., and Simon, L.S., "Advertising and the Diffusion of new Products.", Management Science,Vol. 1,pp. 1-18,1983.
〔9〕Islam, T. and Meade, N. , "The Diffusion of Successive Generations of a Technology: A More General Model, " Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.56(1), pp. 49-60,1997
〔10〕Jain D., and Rao R. C., " Effect of Price on Demand for Durable: Modeling, Estimation, and Findings", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol.8(2), pp.163-170,1990.
〔11〕Jain D. C., Mahajan V., and Muller E., "Innovation Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Restriction", Marketing Science, Vol.10(1), pp.83-90,1991.
〔12〕Jones, J.M., and Ritz,C.J., "Incorporating Distribution into New Product Diffusion Models",Internatonal Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol.8,pp.91-112,1991.
〔2〕 Kalish S., " Monopolist Pricing with Dynamic Demand and Production Cost," Marketing Science, Vol.2(2), pp.135-160,1983.
〔13〕Kalish S., "A New Product Adoption Model with Pricing Advertising and Uncertainty", Management Science,Vol. 31(12), pp.1569-1585,1985.
〔14〕Kalish S. and Lilien G. L., " A Market Entry Timing Model for New Technologies", Management Science, Vol.32(2), pp.194-205,1986.
〔15〕Kim, N., D.R. Chang and A.D. Shocker , "Modeling Intercategory and Generational Dynamics for A Growing Information Technology Industry", Management Science, Vol.46, pp.469-512,2000.
〔16〕Kim, Y. B., S. Y. Seo and Y. T. Lee, "A Substitution and Diffusion Model with Exogenous Impact: Forecasting of IMT-2000 Subscribers in Korea ",50th IEEE VTS(Vehicular Technolog Society),VTC (Vehicular Technology Conference), Vol.2, pp.948-952,1999.
〔17〕Lilien G. L., Rao A. G., and Kalish S., "Bayesian Estimation and Control Detailing Effort in a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Environment", Management Science, Vol.27(5), pp.493-506,1981.
〔18〕Mahajan,V., and Peterson,R.A., "Multi-Product Growth Models", in Research in Marketing, J.Sheth,ed.,Greenwich:JAI Press,1978.
〔19〕Mahajan,V. and Peterson,R.A., "Integrating Time and Space in Technological Substitutin Models", Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.14,pp.231-241,1979.
〔20〕Mahajan V., Wind Y., and Sharma S., "An Adoption to Repeat Purchase Diffusion Models", AMA Proceeding, Series 49, Patrick E. Murphy et al. eds. Chicago: American Marketing Association, pp. 442-446,1983.
〔21〕Mahajan V., Muller E., and Kerin R. A., "Introduction Strategy for New Products with Positive and Negative Word-of-Mouth", Management Science, Vol.30(12),pp. 1389-1404,1984.
〔22〕Mahajan V.,Muller E.,and F.M.Bass."New product Diffusion Models in Marketing：a Review and Direction for Future Research", Journal of Marketing, Vol.54(1), pp.1-26,1990.
〔23〕Mahajan V. and Muller E. , "Timing, Diffusion, and Substitution of Successive Generations of Technological Innovations: The IBM Mainframe Case. ", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 51, pp.109-132,1996.
〔24〕Midgley,D.F., "A Simple Mathematical Theory of Innovation Behavior". Journal of Consumer Research,Vol.3,pp.31-41,1976.
〔25〕Namwoon Kim, Dae Ryun Chang and Allan D. Shocker, " Modeling Intercategory and Generational Dynamics for a Growing Information Technology Industry", Management Science. Vol.46(4), pp.496-512,2000.
〔26〕Norton, J.A. and F. M. Bass, "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generation of High Technology Products ", Management Science. Vol.33, pp.1069-1086, September 1987.
〔27〕Robinson B. and Lakhani C., "Dynamic Price Models for New Product Planning", Management Science, Vol. 21(10), pp. 1113-1122.,1975.
〔28〕RogersmE.M. "Diffusion of Innovation ",New York: Free Press,1983.
〔29〕Sharif, M.N., and Ramanathan,K, "Binomial Innovation Diffusion Models with Dynamic Potential Adopter Population",Technological forecasting and social Chang,Vol.20,pp.63-87,1981.
〔30〕Sharif, M. N. and Ramanathan K. , "Polynomial Innovation Diffusion Models", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.21(1), pp.301-323.,1982.
〔31〕Simon, H., and Sebastian, K.H.,. "Diffusion and Advertising: The German Telephone Company.", Management Science,Vol. 33,pp. 451-466,1987.
〔32〕Srivastava,R.K.,Mahajan, V., Ramaswami, S. N., and Cherian, J., " A Multi-attribute Diffusion Model for Forecasting the Adoption of Investment Alternatives for Consumers ",Technological Forecasting and Social Change . Vol.84. pp.3807-3811,1985.
〔33〕Srinivasan,V.,C.H. Mason., " Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models.", Marketing Science . Vol.5(2). pp.169-178,1986.
〔34〕Speece, M. W. and D. L. MacLachlan, "Forecasting Fluid Milk Package Type with a Multigeneration New Product Diffusion Model ", IEEE Transactions On Engineering Management, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp.169-175,1992.
〔35〕Speece, M. W. and D. L. MacLachlan , " Application of a ulti-Generation Diffusion Model to Milk Container Technology " ,Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 49, pp.281-295,1995.
参、網站部分
1.ITIS產業資訊網http://www.itis.org.tw/
2.資策會資訊市場情報中心http://mic.iii.org.tw/aisp/
3.經濟部統計處http://2k3dmz2.moea.gov.tw/gnweb/PublicService/wFrmMain.aspx

指導教授

洪秀婉

審核日期

2011-7-8

推文