| 摘要(英) |
In recent years, gas price in Taiwan has been fluctuating greatly under the influence of international natural gas prices. Besides, in the past years, on the demand side of our new car market, only a few studies have been done considering the auto sale prices, fuel consumption, and auto characteristics. The purpose of this study is to explore when buying cars, will consumers pay more attention to the fuel efficiency of the model than other car features, as well as the relationship among gas price, car price, and the demand of cars. A nested logit model was developed based on discrete choice model, in which the data of the auto sales, observable features, and the gas prices during the period from 1997 to 2011 were used to estimate the consumers’ preference toward the demand of different products.
The research findings include: first, when the gas price goes up, the fuel consumption per mile will rise, which will lead to the falling of the car sale. This also indicates the consumers’ sensitivity toward the changes of the gas price. Secondly, the negative correlation between fuel efficiency and car features reveals that consumers’ preference toward the weight of the car is significant. Nevertheless, no evidence can support that the horse power of the car will significantly affect the car sale. Finally, the average price elasticity of auto demand in Taiwan is up to -4.12, which is higher than that of the American auto market. This also indicates that consumers in Taiwan are highly sensitive to auto prices, and there is a keen competition in the local auto market.
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| 參考文獻 |
中文網站：
1.台灣區車輛同業公會：http://www.ttvma.org.tw/cht/index.php
2.台灣中油資訊網：http://www.cpc.com.tw
3.經濟部能源局：http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw
4.經濟部能源局油價資訊管理與分析系統：http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/oil102/
5.交通統計月報：http://www.motc.gov.tw/mocwebGIP/wSite/ct?xItem=4880&ctNode=167&mp=1
6.車輛耗能研究網站：http://auto.itri.org.tw/news/news.html
英文文獻與書籍：
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9.Goldberg, Pinelopi K. 1998. “The Effects of the Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency Standards in the US.” Journal of Industrial Economics, 46(1)：1-33.
10.Gramlich, Jacob. 2010. “Gas Prices, Fuel Efficiency, and Endogenous Product Choice in the U.S. Automobile Industry.” Unpublished.
http://faculty.msb.edu/jpg72/Autos_GramlichJacob.pdf
11.Greene, William H. 2008. Econometric Analysis 6th. New Jersey: Prentice Hall International.
12.Hansen, Lars, and Kenneth Singleton. 1982. “Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models.” Econometrica, 50(5)：1269-1286.
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15.Klier, Thomas, and Joshua Linn. 2010b. “New Vehicle Characteristics and the Cost of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standard.” Resources for the Future Discussion Paper10-50.
16.Li, Shanjun, Roger Haefen, and Christopher Timmins. 2008. “How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 14450.
17.Pakes, Ariel, Steven Berry, and James Levinsohn. 1993. “Applications and Limitations of Some Recent Advances in Empirical Industrial Organization: Price Indexes and the Analysis of Environmental Cange.” American Economic Review, 83(2), 240-246.
18.Prieger, James, and Wei-Min Hu 2007. “Applications Barriers to Entry and Exclusive Vertical Contracts in Platform Markets.” The Networks, Electronic Commerce, and Telecommunications Institute Working Paper #07-46.
19.Train, Kenneth, and Clifford Winston. 2007. “Vehicle Choice Behavior and the Declining Market.” International Economic Review, 48(4)：1469-1496.
20.Trajtenberg, Manuel. 1989. “The Welfare Analysis of Product Innovation.” Journal of Political Economy, 97(2)：444-479.
21.Trajtenberg, Manuel. 1990. “A Penny for Your Quotes: Pantent Citations and the Value of Innovations.” The RAND Journal of Economics, 21(1)：172-187.
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