分析師預測與會計異常現象

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姓名

賴晨瑀(Chen-yu Lai) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

會計研究所

論文名稱

分析師預測與會計異常現象
(Analysts’ Forecasts and Accounting Anomaly)

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至系統瀏覽論文 ( 永不開放)

摘要(中)

本文旨在探討分析師現金流量預測是否能使投資人在當期股價中較充分地反應出未來現金流量所傳遞的資訊內涵。本研究認為當分析師發佈現金流量預測時，具有監督管理當局編製當期現金流量資訊之品質，若財務報表的現金流量品質提升，則投資人對於現金流量的評價較高，因而降低低估現金流量持續性的異常現象。實證結果發現，有分析師現金流量預測之公司，其現金流量錯誤評價的異常現象確實有顯著下降，因此，本文研究結果顯示，分析師現金流量預測所傳遞的現金流量資訊，具有幫助投資人較正確評估現金流量的價值，降低現金流量異常現象，並減緩股價遞延至下一期作修正迴轉延遲反應的效力。

摘要(英)

This study examines how analysts’ cash flow forecasts accelerate investors’ responses to the future implications of current cash flow information. I argue that when analysts issue cash flow forecasts, they serve a monitoring role over a firm’s reported cash flow information, which in turn enables investors to assign more weight to operating cash flow and thus reduce investors’ underestimation of cash flow information. Consistent with this idea, I find that the provision of analysts’ cash flow forecasts is associated with a significant reduction on anomalous mispricing of operating cash flows. Our results suggest that analysts’ cash flow forecasts improve the efficacy of investors’ reactions to earnings announcements by conveying information in the cash flow components of reported earnings.

關鍵字(中)

★ 現金流量異常現象
★ 分析師現金流量預測
★ 應計項目異常現象

關鍵字(英)

★ Accrual anomaly
★ Analysts’cash flow forecasts
★ Cash flow anomaly

論文目次

中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
致謝辭 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 v
表目錄 vi
一、緒論 1
1-1　研究背景與研究動機 1
1-2　研究目的、方法與貢獻 5
1-3　研究架構 7
二、文獻探討 9
2-1　應計項目與現金流量異常現象之相關文獻 9
2-2　分析師現金流量預測之相關文獻 13
三、假說發展 17
3-1 分析師現金流量預測是否降低現金流量異常現象 17
四、選樣與研究設計 19
4-1 資料來源、樣本期間與樣本選取 19
4-2 變數定義與衡量 21
4-3　實證模型之設計 24
五、實證結果與分析 26
5-1 變數敘述統計量與相關性分析 26
5-2　分析師現金流量預測對現金流量異常現象之影響 29
六、結論與建議 36
6-1　研究結論 36
6-2　研究限制與建議 38
參考文獻 40

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指導教授

曹壽民、鄭漢鐔
(Shou-min Tsao、Hann-tarn Jeng)

審核日期

2011-7-3

推文