| 姓名 |
江志強(Jhy-Chiang Jiang)
查詢紙本館藏 |
畢業系所 |
工業管理研究所在職專班 |
| 論文名稱 |
台灣地區快速流通消費產品銷售預測模型分析研究–以聯華食品可樂果為例
(Sales forecasting model analysis of fast moving consumer goods in Taiwan-Lian Hwa Foods Crackers snack for example)
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| 相關論文 | |
| 檔案 |
 [Endnote RIS 格式]
[Bibtex 格式]
 [相關文章]  [文章引用]  [完整記錄]  [館藏目錄]  至系統瀏覽論文 ( 永不開放)
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| 摘要(中) |
在快速流通消費產品市場裡，由於競爭的激烈與產品的多元，企業對於整個產品市場銷售需求的掌握，是一個相當重要的工作。然而隨著台灣地區近年來賣場通路，店頭市場的消長變化，擁有自我品牌的傳統食品製造公司，當面對的不再是只要將產品生產出來就有消費者購買，甚至需要根據消費者需求客製化生產，消費者至上的供需市場時，尤其近年來食品業在各種食品風暴的衝擊下，又須顧及保存期限的食品鮮度限制，如何做好預測管理正是食品業的一大考驗。本研究在探討傳統食品公司在面臨企業從生產導向轉型成為消費導向，以及現階段休閒食品市場需求之競爭變化，建立出合理的銷售需求預測模式，以解決企業在掌握產品市場需求時所遭遇的困難。
本研究首先針對快速流通消費產品特性，及休閒食品產業市場進行分析，說明傳統食品公司在面對市場銷售需求預測所面對各種不確定性之問題，依據廠商經驗找出影響市場需求的自變數，將季節性因素中拆分為農曆春節與中元節，所對應銷售月份變化之所佔單月的農曆天數，以及促銷因素之廣告效果變數、賣場陳列效果變數以及通路折價效果變數，並藉由廠商聯華食品選定出一特定適合產品之歷年實際銷售資料，並將廠商實際可控投入自變數資料，探討這些變數與產品銷售間的關係，經由迴歸分析研究方法，找出影響關聯性，藉以建立一個適當的模型以預測未來市場的銷售需求，並期望能有效用地推展至其他產品。
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| 摘要(英) |
Due to the intensity of competition and diversity of products, it is a very important work to entirely master the product market demand, especially in this fast moving consumer goods market. However, with the growth and decline in Taiwan in recent years stores channel, traditional food manufacturing companies that have their own brand names, not only need to produce the product to sell but also need to produce the products according to consumer demand and make it customization in this consumer oriented world. In recent years, due to several turmoil of a variety of foods, how to make the forecast management about the shelf life of fresh food restrictions is a major test of the food industry. This study investigated the traditional food companies which is facing the corporate transition from production-oriented to consumer-oriented, and current snack food market demand and it’s competition changes, than establish a reasonable sales demand forecasting model in order to solve the difficulty that company will face by the time they try to fully master the market demand of the traditional food market.
In this study, characteristics of the fast moving consumer products, and snack foods industry market analysis, indicating the traditional food company faced the problem of uncertainties in the face of market demand forecast, according to the manufacturer experience to identify the independent variables affecting the market demand seasonal factors in the split for the Lunar New Year and the Hungry Ghost Festival, the corresponding changes in the share of a single month sales month Lunar days, as well as promotion factors of advertising effect variables, the stores display the effect of variables and channel discount the effect of variables, and by selected Lian Hwa Foods Corporation for products of a specific calendar year, the actual sales data, and manufacturers actually controllable input the information of the independent variables, to explore the relationship between these variables and product sales, through regression analysis method to identify the impact correlation in order to establish an appropriate model to predict future sales demand and expect effective land extended to other products.
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| 關鍵字(中) |
★ 銷售需求預測
★ 快速流通消費產品
★ 食品市場
★ 休閒食品 |
關鍵字(英) |
★ Sales Frecasting
★ Fast Moving Consumer Goods
★ FMCG
★ Snack Fods |
| 論文目次 |
目錄
碩博士論文電子檔授權書 I
中文摘要 II
Abstract III
目錄 IV
圖目錄 VI
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究動機與背景說明 1
1.2研究目的及範圍 2
1.3論文架構概要說明 3
第二章 產業分析與文獻探討 5
2.1台灣休閒食品產業演化說明 5
2.2台灣休閒食品產業現況分析 10
2.3當前業者所面臨之問題與挑戰 22
第三章 研究方法 27
3.1預測理論發展歷程 27
3.2預測方法 32
3.3預測程序 39
第四章 建立預測模型 45
4.1產品銷售歷史資料 45
4.2影響因素分析說明 46
4.3迴歸分析預測模型 51
4.4需求預測模式判定說明 53
第五章 結論 55
5.1結論與建議 55
參考文獻 57
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| 參考文獻 |
參考文獻
﹝1﹞ 何明琅、李國貞、周能傳，食品工業長程發展策略規劃研究，P.29，1990
﹝2﹞ 食品工業發展研究所，2012年食品產業年鑑，2012
﹝3﹞ U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2010
﹝4﹞ AC Nielsen 台灣地區食品產業調查報告, 2011
﹝5﹞ E-ICP東方線上資料庫2011生活形態調查
﹝6﹞ 行政院衛生署 國民健康局
﹝7﹞ 行政院主計處 人口成長趨勢統計 2011
﹝8﹞ 日本總務省統計局 日本國人口年齡趨勢 2010
﹝9﹞ 中華經濟研究院 工業國家GDP成長預測 2010
﹝10﹞ Ronald H. Ballou, Business Logistics/Supply Chain Management, 2010
﹝11﹞ Hill, C.W and G.R. Jones, Strategic Management Theory, P.48- P.52,1998
﹝12﹞ S. Markridakis & S.C. Wheelwright, Forecasting Methods for Management, p40-42 ,1989
﹝13﹞ Roberta Russell, Operations Management, p456, 2001
﹝14﹞ Sunil Chopra & Peter Meindl, Supply chain management, 2002
﹝15﹞ David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Statistics for Business and Economics, 2008
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| 指導教授 |
葉英傑(Yingchieh Yeh)
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審核日期 |
2012-7-11 |
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