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姓名	許菁君(Ching-Chun Hsu)  查詢紙本館藏	畢業系所	產業經濟研究所
論文名稱	台灣冷氣機產業技術創新與能源政策 (Technological Innovation and Energy Policy in Taiwan Air Conditioner Industry)
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摘要(中)	本論文旨在剖析政策、能源與技術三者之間的互動與關聯，藉由特定產業的研究，建立完整的理論分析架構，評估政府的能源暨環境政策對產業技術創新的影響程度，以及對總體經濟活動的衝擊效果。 根據本文建立的分析架構，本文除了回顧技術創新與能源政策相關的文獻，並針對台灣冷氣機產業進行產業發展研究與技術策略探討，以及政府相關的節約能源政策分析。 本文首先透過誘發創新與產品特徵理論與實證方法，探討產業技術創新活動的比例與方向。藉由計量方法估計產品特徵在不同時期的轉換特性，瞭解耐久財的使用在能源效率、資本成本與其他屬性之間所呈現的替代關係，進而分析經濟誘因與政府環境管制策略對產品特徵屬性所造成的影響。透過整體技術創新率的衡量，藉以瞭解能源效率變動的程度是因為產品技術全面提升抑或相對能源價格及政府直接管制所誘發達成。 實證結果顯示：雖然不同模式的創新程度不一，但過去二、三十年冷氣機產品的能源效率的實質提升與整體的技術進步有關，進一步探析發現自發性的創新方向是使產品朝向成本降低的技術提升層次。由於台灣的電價政策自1983年之後逐年實質遞減，雖至1989年有微幅上揚，但成長率非常微小，近十年來幾乎維持固定水準的電價政策，導致價格誘發的創新效果無法獲得實證支持；但是政府兩次致力提升能源效率標準的政策制定，卻明顯地誘發冷氣機產品朝向具有提升能源效率的技術創新。此外，本研究進一步使用非參數估計模式驗證政府政策對技術創新所造成的能源效率提升或者成本節省之技術變化過程。 再者，本文建構一個能源內生的成長理論模型，解釋能源使用價格與長期的能源消費成長率會呈現反向關係。即能源使用價格上升，能夠抑制長期的能源消費成長率；反之，能源使用價格下跌，反而刺激長期的能源消費成長率。當政府提高能源使用價格的干預政策會降低廠商的獲利率，在其他條件不變之下，反向傾斜的利潤機會暗示著能源使用與資本設備的資源持有將會重新分配，最後誘發資本設備的使用、或者呈現在技術創新的成果、或者造成有效能源的使用效率提升，進而增強因應能源價格上漲的能力。
摘要(英)	Over the long time, the impacts of energy policies will be greatly affected by the influence these policies have on the extent of technological innovation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between efforts of energy regulation policy and technological innovation of the firms from Taiwan air conditioners manufacturing, which serves as a valuable part of the information base supporting environmental and energy management decision. Our analysis focuses on the use of product-characteristic approach and nonparametric regression, which reflects the relative bargaining power of the consumer and supplier. By using the individual air conditioners data collected Taiwan various producers for past thirty years, this study is to test Hicks’ induced innovation hypothesis. The evidence supports that the substantial increases in the energy efficiency of the products in the past appear to have been associated with overall technological innovation. However, almost invariable price level for electricity seems not to have any noticeable effect on technological advance. But government regulation policies in energy efficiency standards have the significant impact on induced innovation of energy-using consumer durables.
關鍵字(中)	★ 技術創新 ★ 能源政策	關鍵字(英)	★ Technological Innovation ★ Energy Policy
論文目次	目 錄 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究目的 ……………………………………………………………2 第二節 研究架構與綱要 ……………………………………………………3 第三節 技術創新與環境政策文獻回顧 ……………………………………6 第二章 冷氣機產業發展與政府政策 第一節 冷氣機產業發展簡介 ………………………………………………13 第二節 冷氣機結構與技術趨勢 ……………………………………………20 第三節 政府的節約能源政策 ………………………………………………24 第四節 我國能源效率與美日韓三國比較 …………………………………27 第五節 主動式能源標示與結論 ……………………………………………29 第三章 技術創新理論與實證模型 第一節 特徵模型與技術創新理論 …………………………………………32 第二節 特徵曲面的參數迴歸實證模型 ……………………………………38 第三節 非參數迴歸理論與模型…………………………………………… 40 第四章 電價政策與資料說明 第一節 我國能源消耗與電價政策 …………………………………………46 第二節 實證資料說明 ………………………………………………………50 第五章 實證結果 第一節 參數迴歸的實證估計 ………………………………………………55 第二節 能源效率的變動分解 ………………………………………………57 第三節 非參數核迴歸模型估計 ……………………………………………60 第六章 能源內生化理論延伸 第一節 前言 …………………………………………………………………67 第二節 能源內生化的理論模型 ……………………………………………69 第三節 長期靜止均衡分析 …………………………………………………72 第四節 比較靜態分析 ………………………………………………………76 第五節 宣告效果與動態傳遞過程 …………………………………………77 第六節 結論 …………………………………………………………………80 第七章 結論 第一節 本研究的特色 ………………………………………………………82 第二節 本研究的發現 ………………………………………………………82 第三節 未來研究方向 ………………………………………………………84 參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………85
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指導教授	劉錦龍(Jin-Long Liu)	審核日期	2004-1-5
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