廣域山崩潛感分析模型力學-水力參數逆分析

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林衍丞(Yen-Cheng Lin) 查詢紙本館藏

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論文名稱

廣域山崩潛感分析模型力學-水力參數逆分析
(Prospects and limitations on determining the hydraulic-mechanical parameters in regional susceptibility model using back analysis technique)

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摘要(中)

近年山崩衍生之災害頻傳，使得山崩潛感分析成為熱門議題。山崩潛感分析可分為統計法與定率法，定率法較具物理意義，但要取得定率模型所需之力學與水力參數，則相當困難。透過逆分析，取得定率模型之參數則較為可行。然而，地質材料多具高度變異性，導致逆分析結果具不確定性。本研究以假設之案例( 共100個網格)，探討逆分析技術於山崩潛感分析定率模型參數取得之前景與限制。假設案例共使用三種參數空間分布型態(均質；各網格參數為分布相同；前述分布於各網格以隨機空間分佈型態存在)，以模擬各種不同參數分佈情形對逆分析之影響。藉由廣域邊坡穩定分析模型TRIGRS以及點估計法進行正分析，可獲得不同參數空間分佈假設下，各網格點之安全係數(或破壞機率)、山崩目錄以及水壓反應。逆分析時先假設全區為均質區，分別以山崩目錄、安全係數率定強度參數(凝聚力、摩擦角)與水力參數(水力傳導係數及水力擴散率)，而後再加入水壓反應資料，先率定水力參數，再利用山崩目錄或安全係數率定強度參數；其次考慮參數為常態或對數常態分布，但假設參數為定值，利用水壓反應與山崩目錄(或安全係數)率定水力與強度參數進行逆分析；最後，考慮參數異質性，利用水壓反應與山崩目錄(或破壞機率)率定水力與強度參數平均值與變異係數。結果顯示，若僅以山崩目錄，甚至利用安全係數或破壞機率進行參數率定，逆分析結果並不理想且非唯一。然而加入水壓反應先率定水力參數，再利用山崩目錄或安全係數進行強度參數逆分析，雖無法完全去除率定參數之非唯一性，但可有效地降低其非唯一性，且提升逆分析結果準確性。另外，若區域參數為一分布，但將其視為均質區進行逆分析，則逆分析所得參數與給定參數之平均值相距甚遠。最後，逆分析參數平均值與標準差之結果接近實際之參數分布，然非唯一性仍存在。由正算反應與各參數間相關性分析結果可知，山崩目錄及安全係數與水力參數之相關性偏低，此結果顯示僅使用山崩目錄(主要受強度參數與地形控制)欲反算水力參數並不合理。由相關性分析亦可發現水壓及山崩目錄與參數之相關性深受降雨強度與延時影響，故以定率法山崩潛感分析模式進行參數逆分析時，若能獲得不同時期(不同降雨強度與延時)之山崩目錄，則可有效地提升逆分析廣域參數之效能。

摘要(英)

Landslide susceptibility analysis is crucial from hazard mitigation viewpoint. Statistical and deterministic approaches are frequently adopted for landslide susceptibility analysis. Based on physical models, deterministic approaches are superior to the statistical approaches for deterministic approaches fully taking the mechanical mechanisms into account. However, it is difficult to get the required hydraulic-mechanical parameters in a deterministic model. Back analysis is a promising way to calibrate the required parameters. Nevertheless, fewer researches really pay attention to discuss the accuracy of back analysis results. Therefore, this research uses hypothetical cases to evaluate the prospects and limitations of back analysis of regional hydraulic-mechanical parameters in a deterministic model. Three different spatial distribution types of hydraulic-mechanical parameters were assigned. Thereafter, landslide inventory, distribution of safety factor and failure probability, and pressure head of the hypothetical cases were calculated using a deterministic model, TRIGRS. These responses then used to calibrate the input parameters. The results show If we only use landslide inventory to calibrate (cohesion, friction angle, hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic diffusivity), the back calculation results which the best fit parameters are not unique and different from given parameters. The results also show if we can add hydrologic data to calibrate hydraulic parameters first, it can improve back analysis results and reduce non-uniqueness of calibrated parameters. From correlation analysis, we find the correlation coefficient between hydraulic parameters and landslide inventory is low and rainfall duration and intensity will affect it, so only use landslide inventory to calibrate hydraulic parameters is not reasonable. Calibration results can be further improved if we can obtain more event based landslide inventory maps (different intensity or duration) and combine to back analysis method.

關鍵字(中)

★ 淺層山崩
★ 逆分析
★ TRIGRS
★ 點估計法
★ 不確定性分析

關鍵字(英)

★ back analysis
★ TRIGRS
★ shallow landslide
★ calibration methods

論文目次

中文摘要..................................................i
英文摘要.................................................ii
誌謝....................................................iii
目錄.....................................................iv
圖目錄..................................................vii
表目錄..................................................xii
一. 緒論.............................................1
1.1 研究動機與目的...................................1
1.2 研究架構流程圖...................................2
1.3 論文各章內容.....................................3
二. 文獻回顧.........................................4
2.1 區域性山崩潛感分析...............................4
2.2 統計方法 (statistical method)....................7
2.2.1 分析模型之驗證方法...............................7
2.3 定率方法 (deterministic method).................10
2.4 逆分析區域參數相關研究..........................14
2.5 參數不確定性相關研究............................24
三. 研究方法........................................27
3.1 建立參數分佈型態及正算結果......................27
3.1.1 待定參數選擇....................................29
3.1.2 給定研究區域坡度及正算參數......................29
3.1.3 物理模型正算....................................32
3.1.4 產生正算反應....................................40
3.2 參數逆分析......................................40
四. 設計之研究案例..................................45
4.1 逆算參數選擇....................................45
4.2 建立之模擬研究區................................46
4.3 TRIGRS計算結果正確性檢核........................49
4.4 假設案例正算結果................................53
五. 參數逆分析成果與討論............................60
5.1 全區參數為均質情況之逆分析......................60
5.1.1 以山崩目錄同時率定水力及力學參數................60
5.1.2 以安全係數分佈同時率定水力及強度參數............63
5.1.3 以水壓率定水力參數，山崩目錄率定強度參數........65
5.1.4 以水壓率定水力參數，安全係數率定強度參數........67
5.2 參數為異質性，但假設參數為定值之逆分析結果......68
5.2.1 參數為分布(Type II)，但視為定值進行率定.........69
5.2.2 參數為分布(Type III)，但視為定值進行率定........70
5.3 常態或對數常態分布參數平均值與標準差之逆分析....72
5.3.1 參數為Type II分布，逆算其平均值與標準差.........72
5.3.2 參數為Type III分布，逆算其平均值與標準差........75
5.4 各逆算參數與正算反應關聯性分析..................76
5.5 多時期山崩目錄之參數率定結果....................80
5.5.1 不同降雨強度事件誘發之山崩目錄逆分析............80
5.5.2 同一降雨事件不同降雨延時之山崩目錄逆分析........82
5.5.3 多暴雨事件誘發之山崩目錄逆分析..................84
5.6 其他關於逆分析效能之討論........................86
5.6.1 山崩潛感分析各驗證方法存在之問題................86
5.6.2 使用不同率定準則結果之比較......................91
六. 結論與建議......................................99
6.1 結論............................................99
6.2 建議...........................................101
參考文獻................................................102
附錄一................................................113
附錄二................................................115
附錄三................................................116
附錄四................................................117
附錄五................................................120

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指導教授

董家鈞(Jai-Jyun Dong)

審核日期

2009-7-8

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