| 摘要(英) |
The industry and supply chain involved in mobile devices is very extensive .The shipments of mobile devices represent the overall development of information technology industry. Along with the development of the global information and communication industry, the shipments of mobile devices on the international market are expected to rise.
In this research, the smart phones and tablets which represent the largest volume of shipments and the trend of development were taken as the research subjects. Given that their great influence, it is necessary to systematically analyze the trend of mobile devices shipments. Facing such a huge business opportunity, this study has developed effective forecasting models that explore the market trends of mobile devices. The aim of this study is to establish an excellent predictive model that must be easy to use, accuracy and cost-effective. For the related industries with forecasting demand, this study can be used as a reference with the practical value.
The research methods in this study were the time series models, including Decomposition, Holt-Winters, Moving Average models and the grey theory of GM(1,1) method. In addition, the shipments of 20 quarters as training period from 2010 to 2014; the 4 quarters of 2015 as validation period.
The results of study are as follows: 1. all the models have a good predictive effect during the training period. In particular, the model prediction ability can reach high precision state in smart phone shipments. 2. The decline in shipments of the tablet and the growth of smart phone slowed down that interfere with the accuracy of the forecast models in the validation period 3. Since the tablet shipments in the 2015 verification period is more significant decline with shipments fluctuations, this study via the forecasting combination model which can enhance the accuracy of the forecast results greatly. The predicted ratio of forecasting combination model is better than each predicted ratio of single model as well.
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| 參考文獻 |
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