前瞻性資訊揭露對分析師預測之影響

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姓名

游士緯(Shih-Wei Yu) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

前瞻性資訊揭露對分析師預測之影響
(The impact of forward looking information on analyst forecast)

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至系統瀏覽論文 (2028-7-1以後開放)

摘要(中)

公司在年報中所揭露的前瞻性資訊是分析師進行分析時的重要資料來源，本文主要探討前瞻性資訊揭露程度對於分析師預測的準確度以及分散度之影響。利用文字探勘技術，蒐集並分析台灣證券交易所公開資訊觀測站中所發布之台灣地區上市公司2012年至2016年年報，並根據資訊內涵將年報中的資訊分為前瞻性資訊、未來性資訊和可驗證資訊。研究結果顯示，企業年報中揭露越多前瞻性相關資訊可以顯著地增加分析師預測的準確度、減少分散度以及提升追隨企業的分析師追隨人數。而其中不同等級的前瞻性資訊有不同的影響，可驗證性資訊相較未來性資訊可以帶給分析師更多的資訊，而未來性資訊又比一般前瞻性資訊多。

摘要(英)

Forward-looking disclosures revealed by annual report are a vital source of information when assessing a company. This study discusses the effect of forward-looking disclosures on analysts’ forecast properties, particularly focused on the analysts’ accuracy and analysts’ dispersion. This study is completed by using the text mining method to analyze annual reports between 2012 to 2016 in TSEC’s market, and then classify the information content into normal forward-looking disclosures, forward-looking disclosure with information on the impact on company’s future performance and forward-looking disclosure with verifiable information. 0The study indicates that the more verifiably relevant information the company reveals, the more analysts’ accuracy will become; the less dispersion will cause; and the more the analysts following. It is found that various level of forward-looking disclosures cause different effects.

關鍵字(中)

★ 年報文字揭露
★ 分析師預測
★ 分析師離散度
★ 分析師追隨

關鍵字(英)

★ Information Disclosure
★ Analyst Accuracy
★ Analyst Dispersion
★ Analysts Following

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
表目錄 v
第一章緒論 1
　　1-1研究動機與目的 1
　　1-2論文架構 2
第二章文獻探討 3
　　2-1前瞻性資訊 3
　　2-2分析師盈餘預測 4
　　2-3分析師盈餘預測品質影響因素 5
　　2-4企業資訊揭露對分析師預測的影響 7
第三章假說發展 10
　　3-1分析師預測準確率 10
　　3-2分析師預測離散度 11
　　3-3分析師追隨人數 11
第四章　研究結果 13
　　4-1資料蒐集 13
　　4-2變數衡量 13
　　4-3研究模型 17
第五章　實證結果 19
　　5-1敘述統計 19
　　5-2相關分析 21
　　5-3迴歸結果分析 23
第六章　討論與建議 29
　　6-1研究結論 29
　　6-2研究限制與建議 29
參考文獻 31
英文文獻 31
中文文獻 37

參考文獻

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指導教授

曹壽民

審核日期

2018-7-4

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