前瞻性資訊揭露對分析師預測之影響

以作者查詢圖書館館藏

、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士

、以作者查詢全國書目

、勘誤回報

、線上人數：77

、訪客IP：3.144.90.160

姓名

游士緯(Shih-Wei Yu) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

前瞻性資訊揭露對分析師預測之影響
(The impact of forward looking information on analyst forecast)

相關論文

★ 我國中小企業貸款門檻操縱行為分析 -以某銀行授信戶為例	★ 董事會結構與自願性財務預測之關聯性
★ 國際化、創新活動與公司績效：台灣上市公司董事會結構論析	★ 國際化對公司經營績效的影響：資訊透明度的中介效果
★ 內部人持股與會計師選擇關聯性之研究-以馬來西亞上市公司為例	★ 利用吸引力因子進行嚴重服務失誤補救之成效
★ 提升企業價值之永續發展策略－以H公司資源回收為例	★ 組織變革對業務人員銷售力的影響-以電子零組件通路商為例
★ 會計保守性與法說會的關聯性	★ 探索產品品牌、品牌個性與人格特質的對應關係
★ 復徵證券交易所得稅對台灣股市之影響	★ 法人說明會對國際化績效與創新的影響
★ 投資人情緒與資訊透明度關聯性之研究	★ 公司股權結構與內部人交易關聯性之研究
★ 分析師是否高估應計項目的價值-兼論其對現金增資偏低訂價之影響	★ 分析師預測與新上市公司新股折價關聯性之研究

檔案

[Endnote RIS 格式]

[Bibtex 格式]

[相關文章]

[文章引用]

[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

至系統瀏覽論文 (2028-7-1以後開放)

摘要(中)

公司在年報中所揭露的前瞻性資訊是分析師進行分析時的重要資料來源，本文主要探討前瞻性資訊揭露程度對於分析師預測的準確度以及分散度之影響。利用文字探勘技術，蒐集並分析台灣證券交易所公開資訊觀測站中所發布之台灣地區上市公司2012年至2016年年報，並根據資訊內涵將年報中的資訊分為前瞻性資訊、未來性資訊和可驗證資訊。研究結果顯示，企業年報中揭露越多前瞻性相關資訊可以顯著地增加分析師預測的準確度、減少分散度以及提升追隨企業的分析師追隨人數。而其中不同等級的前瞻性資訊有不同的影響，可驗證性資訊相較未來性資訊可以帶給分析師更多的資訊，而未來性資訊又比一般前瞻性資訊多。

摘要(英)

Forward-looking disclosures revealed by annual report are a vital source of information when assessing a company. This study discusses the effect of forward-looking disclosures on analysts’ forecast properties, particularly focused on the analysts’ accuracy and analysts’ dispersion. This study is completed by using the text mining method to analyze annual reports between 2012 to 2016 in TSEC’s market, and then classify the information content into normal forward-looking disclosures, forward-looking disclosure with information on the impact on company’s future performance and forward-looking disclosure with verifiable information. 0The study indicates that the more verifiably relevant information the company reveals, the more analysts’ accuracy will become; the less dispersion will cause; and the more the analysts following. It is found that various level of forward-looking disclosures cause different effects.

關鍵字(中)

★ 年報文字揭露
★ 分析師預測
★ 分析師離散度
★ 分析師追隨

關鍵字(英)

★ Information Disclosure
★ Analyst Accuracy
★ Analyst Dispersion
★ Analysts Following

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
表目錄 v
第一章緒論 1
　　1-1研究動機與目的 1
　　1-2論文架構 2
第二章文獻探討 3
　　2-1前瞻性資訊 3
　　2-2分析師盈餘預測 4
　　2-3分析師盈餘預測品質影響因素 5
　　2-4企業資訊揭露對分析師預測的影響 7
第三章假說發展 10
　　3-1分析師預測準確率 10
　　3-2分析師預測離散度 11
　　3-3分析師追隨人數 11
第四章　研究結果 13
　　4-1資料蒐集 13
　　4-2變數衡量 13
　　4-3研究模型 17
第五章　實證結果 19
　　5-1敘述統計 19
　　5-2相關分析 21
　　5-3迴歸結果分析 23
第六章　討論與建議 29
　　6-1研究結論 29
　　6-2研究限制與建議 29
參考文獻 31
英文文獻 31
中文文獻 37

參考文獻

[1] Allen, A., Cho, J. Y., & Jung, K. (1997). Earnings forecast errors: Comparative evidence from the Pacific-Basin capital markets. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 5(1), 115-129.
[2] Allen, B. (1990). Information as an economic commodity. The American Economic Review, 80(2), 268-273.
[3] Barniv, R., Myring, M. J., & Thomas, W. B. (2005). The association between the legal and financial reporting environments and forecast performance of individual analysts. Contemporary Accounting Research, 22(4), 727-758.
[4] Barron, O. E., Kile, C. O., & O′KEEFE, T. B. (1999). MD&A quality as measured by the SEC and analysts′ earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research, 16(1), 75-109.
[5] Barron, O. E., Kim, O., Lim, S. C., & Stevens, D. E. (1998). Using analysts′ forecasts to measure properties of analysts′ information environment. Accounting Review, 421-433.
[6] Beaver, W. H. (2002). Perspectives on recent capital market research. The Accounting Review, 77(2), 453-474.
[7] Bhushan, R. (1989). Firm characteristics and analyst following. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 11(2-3), 255-274.
[8] Botosan, C. A. (1997). Disclosure level and the cost of equity capital. Accounting review, 323-349.
[9] Botosan, C. A. (1997). Disclosure level and the cost of equity capital. Accounting review, 323-349.
[10] Bozzolan, S., Trombetta, M., & Beretta, S. (2009). Forward-looking disclosures, financial verifiability and analysts′ forecasts: A study of cross-listed European firms. European Accounting Review, 18(3), 435-473.
[11] Brown, L. D. (1997). Analyst forecasting errors: Additional evidence. Financial Analysts Journal, 53(6), 81-88.
[12] Brown, L. D. (2001). A temporal analysis of earnings surprises: Profits versus losses. Journal of Accounting Research, 39(2), 221-241.
[13] Brown, L. D., Hagerman, R. L., Griffin, P. A., & Zmijewski, M. E. (1987). Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 9(1), 61-87.
[14] Bushman, R. M., & Smith, A. J. (2001). Financial accounting information and corporate governance. Journal of accounting and Economics, 32(1-3), 237-333.
[15] Chen, S., & Matsumoto, D. A. (2006). Favorable versus unfavorable recommendations: The impact on analyst access to management‐provided information. Journal of Accounting Research, 44(4), 657-689.
[16] CICA. (2002). Management′s discussion and analysis; guidance on preparation and disclosure.
[17] Clement, M. B., & Tse, S. Y. (2005). Financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting. The Journal of finance, 60(1), 307-341.
[18] Das, S., Levine, C. B., & Sivaramakrishnan, K. (1998). Earnings predictability and bias in analysts′ earnings forecasts. Accounting Review, 277-294.
[19] Diamond, D. W., & Verrecchia, R. E. (1991). Disclosure, liquidity, and the cost of capital. The journal of Finance, 46(4), 1325-1359.
[20] Dowen, R. J. (1989). The relation of firm size, security analyst bias, and neglect. Applied Economics, 21(1), 19-23.
[21] Dowen, R. J. (1996). Analyst reaction to negative earnings for large well-known firms. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 23(1), 49-55.
[22] Duru, A., & Reeb, D. M. (2002). International diversification and analysts′ forecast accuracy and bias. The Accounting Review, 77(2), 415-433.
[23] Frankel, R., Kothari, S. P., & Weber, J. (2006). Determinants of the informativeness of analyst research. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 41(1-2), 29-54.
[24] Frazier, K. B., Ingram, R. W., & Tennyson, B. M. (1984). A methodology for the analysis of narrative accounting disclosures. Journal of Accounting Research, 318-331.
[25] Graham, J. R. (1999). Herding among investment newsletters: Theory and evidence. The Journal of Finance, 54(1), 237-268.
[26] Healy, P. M., & Palepu, K. G. (2001). Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of accounting and economics, 31(1-3), 405-440.
[27] Healy, P. M., Hutton, A. P., & Palepu, K. G. (1999). Stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary accounting research, 16(3), 485-520.
[28] Hong, H., Kubik, J. D., & Solomon, A. (2000). Security analysts′ career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts. The Rand journal of economics, 121-144.
[29] Hope, O. K. (2003a). Accounting policy disclosures and analysts′forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research, 20(2), 295-321.
[30] Hope, O. K. (2003b). Disclosure practices, enforcement of accounting standards, and analysts′ forecast accuracy: An international study. Journal of accounting research, 41(2), 235-272.
[31] Hussainey, K., Schleicher, T., & Walker, M. (2003). Undertaking large-scale disclosure studies when AIMR-FAF ratings are not available: the case of prices leading earnings. Accounting and Business Research, 33(4), 275-294.
[32] Hussainey, K. S. M. (2004). Study of the Ability of (partially) Automated Disclosure Scores to Explain the Information Content of Annual Report Narratives for Future Earnings. University of Manchester.
[33] Irani, A. J., & Karamanou, I. (2003). Regulation fair disclosure, analyst following, and analyst forecast dispersion. Accounting Horizons, 17(1), 15-29.
[34] Kross, W., Ro, B., & Schroeder, D. (1990). Earnings expectations: The analysts′ information advantage. Accounting Review, 461-476.
[35] Kross, W., Ro, B., & Schroeder, D. (1990). Earnings expectations: The analysts′ information advantage. Accounting Review, 461-476.
[36] Lang, M. H., & Lundholm, R. J. (1996). Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. Accounting review, 467-492.
[37] Lang, M. H., Lins, K. V., & Miller, D. P. (2003). ADRs, analysts, and accuracy: Does cross listing in the United States improve a firm′s information environment and increase market value?. Journal of Accounting Research, 41(2), 317-345.
[38] Lang, M. H., Lins, K. V., & Miller, D. P. (2004). Concentrated control, analyst following, and valuation: Do analysts matter most when investors are protected least?. Journal of Accounting Research, 42(3), 589-623.
[39] Lee, J., & Lee, J. W. (2015). Analyst Herding Behavior and Analyst Affiliation: Evidence from Business Groups. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 16(4), 373-386.
[40] Leuz, C., & Verrecchia, R. E. (2000). Search in. Journal of accounting research, 38, 91-124No.
[41] Li Eng, L., & Kiat Teo, H. (1999). The relation between annual report disclosures, analysts′ earnings forecasts and analyst following: Evidence from Singapore. Pacific Accounting Review, 11(1/2), 219-239.
[42] Li, F. (2010). The information content of forward‐looking statements in corporate filings—A naïve Bayesian machine learning approach. Journal of Accounting Research, 48(5), 1049-1102.
[43] Lin, H. W., & McNichols, M. F. (1998). Underwriting relationships, analysts′ earnings forecasts and investment recommendations. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 25(1), 101-127.
[44] Lys, T., & Sohn, S. (1990). The association between revisions of financial analysts′ earnings forecasts and security-price changes. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 13(4), 341-363.
[45] Lys, T., & Soo, L. G. (1995). Analysts′ forecast precision as a response to competition. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 10(4), 751-765.
[46] Newman, P., & Sansing, R. (1993). Disclosure policies with multiple users. Journal of Accounting Research, 92-112.
[47] O′brien, P. C. (1988). Analysts′ forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of accounting and Economics, 10(1), 53-83.
[48] O′brien, P. C. (1988). Analysts′ forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of accounting and Economics, 10(1), 53-83.
[49] Ramnath, S., Rock, S., & Shane, P. (2008). The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(1), 34-75.
[50] Schipper, K. (1991). Analysts′ forecasts. Accounting horizons, 5(4), 105.
[51] Schleicher, T., & Walker, M. (1999). Share price anticipation of earnings and management′s discussion of operations and financing. Accounting and Business Research, 29(4), 321-335.
[52] Skinner, D. J. (1994). Why firms voluntarily disclose bad news. Journal of accounting research, 32(1), 38-60.
[53] Stickel, S. E. (1989). The timing of and incentives for annual earnings forecasts near interim earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 11(2-3), 275-292.
[54] Stober, T. L. (1992). Summary financial statement measures and analysts′ forecasts of earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 15(2-3), 347-372.
[55] Trueman, B. (1994). Analyst forecasts and herding behavior. The Review of Financial Studies, 7(1), 97-124.
[56] Vanstraelen, A., Zarzeski, M. T., & Robb, S. W. (2003). Corporate nonfinancial disclosure practices and financial analyst forecast ability across three European countries. Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 14(3), 249-278.
[57] Verrecchia, R. E. (1983). Discretionary disclosure. Journal of accounting and economics, 5, 179-194.
[58] Welker, M. (1995). Disclosure policy, information asymmetry, and liquidity in equity markets. Contemporary accounting research, 11(2), 801-827.
[59] Yu, M. (2010). Analyst forecast properties, analyst following and governance disclosures: A global perspective. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 19(1), 1-15.
[60] 汪進揚, & 余俊憲. (2005). 財務分析師盈餘預測誤差與預測行為影響因素之研究. 證券市場發展季刊, 16(4), 117-144.
[61] 汪進揚, & 鄧名堯. (2012). 資訊揭露對分析師盈餘預測品質影響之研究. 證券市場發展季刊, 24(1), 111-138.
[62] 李宜雯. (2011). 資訊揭露證券市場的防腐劑.

指導教授

曹壽民

審核日期

2018-7-4

推文