臺灣汽油需求彈性之再檢定分析

以作者查詢圖書館館藏

、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士

、以作者查詢全國書目

、勘誤回報

、線上人數：78

、訪客IP：3.135.184.186

姓名

陳冠廷(Kuan-Ting Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

產業經濟研究所

論文名稱

臺灣汽油需求彈性之再檢定分析
(Reanalysis of the Gasoline Demand Elasticity in Taiwan)

相關論文

★ 銀行授信行為之研究	★ 經發會前後台股指數、期貨指數、電子指數與金融指數之關聯性
★ 台灣家庭夏天用電需求分析	★ 影響台銀黃金存摺價格因素之研究
★ 國際原油投資報酬與資金行情之探討-GARCH模型	★ 電子商務對企業經營績效之影響
★ 有害廢棄物之處理與再利用研究：以A公司為例	★ 台灣電燈用電需求量探討--以縣市資料為例
★ 台美股價、匯率、利率之動態關聯-VECM與VECM-GARCH應用	★ 台灣攤販業獲利決定因素-人力資本的影響
★ 航空客運經濟帶油決定因素之實證分析	★ 台灣都會區用電需求影響因素實證分析
★ 便利商店現煮咖啡銷售之研究	★ 大陸鋼鐵出口與台灣鋼鐵價格的關聯性
★ 人口結構變遷對財政教育支出之影響	★ 運動鞋製業的市場結構、行為與績效分析

檔案

[Endnote RIS 格式]

[Bibtex 格式]

[相關文章]

[文章引用]

[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

[檢視]

[下載]

本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的，進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定，切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送，以免觸法。

摘要(中)

本篇論文從汽油需求價格彈性與所得彈性的角度來分析：在不同的油價趨勢下，汽油需求是否出現結構性的變化並分析其影響因素。
本研究使用加總性資料與個體調查資料進行分析，並延伸討論汽油需求的異質性，主要的發現有：(1)多數的模型支持 2014 年前後的汽油需求出現結構性變化，其與油價漲跌高度相關。(2)在油價下跌時，臺灣短期的汽油需求價格彈性較中期的大，但在油價上升時期並無明顯差異，而地區的加總效果並不明顯。(3) 臺灣的駕駛人在汽油需求的價格與所得彈性在各分位的汽油需求中，大抵呈現負斜率的型態，在油價下跌時則較接近「倒 U 曲線」。(4) 車齡大於 10 年以上的駕駛的汽油需求價格彈性最低，而介於 6 到10 年的駕駛有最高的汽油需求價格彈性，且在油價下跌時期，各車齡組別皆有-0.3 左右的彈性水準。

摘要(英)

This essay uses price elasticity and income elasticity of gasoline demand to analyze wither there were a structural changing in gasoline demand during gasoline price changed hugely or not and what were the influencers. We use the aggregated data and individual-investment data to discuss it and do more research on the heterogeneity, and the main findings are listed below: (1)Most of our models support that there were surely a structural changing in gasoline demand before and after 2014, that highly correlated with the changing of gasoline price. (2)When the gasoline price went down, the price elasticity of gasoline demand in the short-run was smaller than the middle-run in Taiwan but that were not the same story when the gasoline price raised up, and the aggregated effect on Region were not strong enough. (3)The Shape of each demand’s quantiles of the price elasticity and income elasticity of gasoline roughly displayed a negative slope line and only when gasoline price went down, there were much closer the “Inverted U Shape” (4)The drivers whose car’s age was above 10 years had the lowest price elasticity of gasoline demand; the drivers whose car’s age was between 6 to 10 years had the highest price elasticity of gasoline demand, and each group had about -0.3 levels of the price elasticity of gasoline demand when the gasoline price went down.

關鍵字(中)

★ 汽油需求
★ 價格彈性
★ 所得彈性
★ 鄒檢定

關鍵字(英)

★ gasoline demand
★ price elasticity
★ income elasticity
★ Chow test

論文目次

表目錄 ii
圖目錄 iii
第１章緒論 1
第１節研究動機與目的 1
第２節研究方法 5
第３節研究架構 5
第２章文獻回顧 6
第１節時間序列方法文獻 6
第２節消費者行為文獻 9
第３章研究方法 14
第１節加總性資料分析模型 14
第２節個體調查資料分析模型 16
第４章資料來源、處理與敘述統計 19
第１節加總性資料 19
第２節個體調查資料 27
第５章實證結果 36
第１節加總性資料分析結果 36
第２節個體調查資料分析結果 41
第６章結論 52
第１節結論 52
第２節研究限制與建議 54
參考文獻 55

參考文獻

一、中文文獻
于奉高(2015)，「國際原油價格 SVAR 模型的穩健性檢驗」，國立臺灣大學經濟學研
究所學位論文。
汪曉威(2013)，「臺灣汽油需求因素之探討」，國立中央大學產業經濟所碩士論文。
陳英慧(2004)，「汽油需求影響因素之探討: 以台灣自用小客車為例」，國立中央大學
產業經濟所碩士論文。
徐玉珊(2009)，「台灣公路油品需求之探討」，私立淡江大學經濟學研究所學位論文。
黃俊豪(2014)，「石油價格波動對台灣經濟景氣的影響」，國立清華大學經濟學系學位
論文。
黃琝琇、林建甫(2011)，「國際原油價格衝擊對臺灣石油消費量的不對稱效果」，應用
經濟論叢，90期，55–92。
經濟部能源局，「2012年之能源統計手冊」，經濟部能源局編制。
經濟部能源局，「2014年之能源統計手冊」，經濟部能源局編制。

二、英文文獻
Alves, Denisard CO, and Rodrigo De Losso da Silveira Bueno. 2003."Short–run, Long–run and Cross Elasticities of Gasoline Demand in Brazil." Energy Economics, 25(2):191–199.
Asafu-Adjaye, John. 2000. “The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries.” Energy Economics, 22(6):615–625.
Barla, Philippe, et al. 2015. “Are Gasoline Demand Elasticities Different Across Cities?” Cahier de recherche Working Paper 4.
Blundell, Richard, Joel Horowitz, and Matthias Parey. 2012. “Measuring the Price Responsiveness of Gasoline Demand: Economic Shape Restrictions and Nonparametric Demand Estimation.” Quantitative Economics, 3 (1):29–51.

56
Brons, Martijn, Peter Nijkamp, Eric Pels, and Piet Rietveld. 2008. “A Meta–analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A SUR Approach.” Energy Economics, 30 (5):2105–22.
Brownstone, David and Thomas Golob. 2010. “The Impact of Residential Density on Vehicle Usage and Energy Consumption.” Journal of Urban Economics, 65 (1):91–98.
Canay, Ivan A. 2011. “A Simple Approach to Quantile Regression for Panel Data.” Econometrics Journal, 14 (3):368–386.
Chou, Kuo–Wei, and Yi–Heng Tseng. 2016. “Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, and the Price Asymmetry in the Taiwanese Retail Gasoline Market.” Economic Modelling, 52 (0): 733–741.
Dahl, Carol and Thomas Sterner. 1991. “Analysing Gasoline Demand Elasticities: A Survey.” Energy Economics, 13 (3):203–210.
Edelstein, Pual and Lutz Kilian. 2009. “How Sensitive Are Consumer Expenditures to Retail Energy Prices.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 56 (6):766–779.
Filippini, M, and F,Heimsch. 2016. “The Regional Impact of a CO2 Tax on Gasoline Demand: a Spatial Econometric Approach.” Resource and Energy Economics, 46(0): 85–100.
Frondel, Manuel and Colin Vance. 2013. “Re–Identifying the Rebound: What about Asymmetry?” Energy Journal, 34 (4):43–54.
Gately, Huntington.2002. “The asymmetric effects of changes in price and income on energy and oil demand.” The Energy Journal, 23 (1):19–55.
Gillingham, Kenneth. 2011. “How do Consumers Respond to Gasoline Price Shocks? Heterogeneity in Vehicle Choice and Driving Behavior.” Manuscript: Yale University.
Gillingham, Kenneth. 2014. “Identifying the Elasticity of Driving: Evidence from a Gasoline Price Shock.” Regional Science & Urban Economics, 47 (4):13–24.
Gillingham, Kenneth, David Rapson, and Gernot Wagner. 2015. “The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy.” Review of Environmental Economics & Policy, 10 (1):68–88.
Gillingham, Kenneth, and Munk N. Anders. 2016.” A Tale of Two Tails: Commuting and the Fuel Price Response in Driving.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working

57
Paper 22937.
Grazi, Fabio, Jeroen van den Bergh, and Jos van Ommeren. 2008. “An Empirical Analysis of Urban Form, Transport, and Global Warming.” The Energy Journal, 29 (4):97–122.
Grigolon, Laura, Mathias Reynaert, and Frank Verboven. 2015. “Consumer Valuation of Fuel Costs and the Effectiveness of Tax Policy: Evidence from the European Car Market.” Unpublished.
Hamilton, James. 2009. “Understanding Crude Oil Prices.” Energy Journal, 30 (2):179–206.
Hughes, Jonathan, Christopher Knittel, and Daniel Sperling. 2008. “Evidence of a Shift in the Short–Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand.” Energy Journal, 29 (1):93–114.
Jacobsen, Mark. 2013. “Evaluating U.S. Fuel Economy Standards in a Model with Producer and Household Heterogeneity.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(2):148–187.
Kilian, Lutz. 2009. “Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market.” American Economic Review, 99 (3):1053–69.
Kilian, Lutz and Daniel Murphy. 2014. “The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29 (3):454–578.
Knittel, Christopher and Ryan Sandler. 2013. “The Welfare Impact of Indirect Pigouvian Taxation: Evidence from Transportation.” National Bureau of Economic Research WorkingPaper 18849.
Koenker, Roger. 2004. “Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Data.” Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 91 (1):74–89.
Koenker, Roger, and Kevin F. Hallock. 2001 “Quantile Regression.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15 (4): 143–156.
Levin, Lewis, Matthew Lewis, and Frank Wolak. 2014. “High–Frequency Evidence on the Demand for Gasoline.” mimeo, Stanford University.
Lim, Kyoung–Min, and Seung–Hoon Yoo. 2016. “Short–run and Long–run Elasticities of Gasoline Demand: the Case of Korea.” Energy Sources, 11 (5): 391–395.
Linn, Joshua. 2016. “The Rebound Effect for Passenger Vehicles.” Energy Journal, 37 (2):257–288.

58
McFadden, Daniel. 1974. “The Measurement of Urban Travel Demand.” Journal of Public Economics, 3 (4):97–122.
Melly, Blaise. 2005. “Decomposition of Differences in Distribution using Quantile Regression.” Labour Economics, 12 (4):577–590.
Moshiri, Saeed, and Kamil Aliyev. 2017. “Rebound Effect of Efficiency Improvement in Passenger Cars on Gasoline Consumption in Canada.” Ecological Economics, 131(0):330–341.
Odeck, James, and Kjell Johansen. 2016. “Elasticities of Fuel and Traffic Demand and the Direct Rebound Effects: an Econometric Estimation in the Case of Norway.” Transportation Research, 83(0):1–13.
Portnoy, Stephen. 1991. “Asymptotic Behavior of the Number of Regression Quantile Breakpoints.” SIAM Journal on Scientific and Statistical Computing, 12(4):867–883.
Ramanathan, R. 1999. “Short–and Long–run Elasticities of Gasoline Demand in India: an Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration Techniques.”Energy Economics,21(4):321–330.
Scott, K. Rebecca. 2015. “Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand.” Energy, 79 (0): 40–49.
Small, Kenneth A. and Kurt van Dender. 2007. “Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect.” Energy Journal, 28 (1):25–51.

指導教授

劉錦龍(Jin-Long Liu)

審核日期

2018-6-21

推文