分析師觀點建構過度投資指標

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姓名

趙威嫚(Wei-Man Chao) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

分析師觀點建構過度投資指標
(A Study on Establishing Over-investment Indicator from Analyst Perspective)

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摘要(中)

本研究探討分析師發佈盈餘預測與企業長期投資之關聯，並進一步從分析師的觀點衡量企業之過度投資。過去研究大多從企業財報資訊來判定過度投資，但會計準則具有其侷限性，研發支出之帳列金額受到會計規則的限制，無法反映真實的企業價值。再者，以同產業同儕做作為衡量基準，可能存在極端情形，整體產業本身即過度投資或投資不足，若以錯誤之衡量基準來評估，其結果可能亦存有偏誤。故在本研究中，我們試圖從分析師的角度去建構過度投資指標，並且與過去研究進行比較，並檢測各模式所計算出之最適投資差距是否隨企業內資本支出與研發支出佔比遞增。研究期長為2001年至2018年。實證結果顯示各項指標間最適投資差異與企業內資本支出與研發支出佔比具有正相關。

摘要(英)

This paper discusses the relationship between analysts’ incentives to cover firms and the extent of their long-term assets. Then we will go further to examine the extent of over-investment based on the perspective of analyst. Existing papers focused on utilizing accounting information to measure the construct of over-investment. However, there are limitations in the present accounting rules that only the events measurable in terms of money are recorded. For that reason, recorded accounting information fails to exhibit the exact firm value. Furthermore, there may be extreme situations in which the same industry peers are used as a benchmark. The overall industry itself is over-investment or under-investment. If the assessment is based on the wrong measure, the results may be biased. Therefore, in this paper, we try to establish over-investment indicator from analyst perspective and compare to prior research. Then we will examine whether the difference of optimal investment calculated by each indicator increases with the proportion of research and development expenditure and capital expenditure. The research period is from 2001 to 2018. Empirical result shows that there is positive relationship between the difference of optimal investment and the research and development expenditure and capital expenditure in the enterprise.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師
★ 盈餘預測
★ 過度投資

關鍵字(英)

★ Analyst
★ Earning forecast
★ Over-investment

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
表目錄 v
一、緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 5
1.3論文架構 5
二、文獻回顧與假說發展 6
2.1分析師相關文獻 6
2.1.1分析師角色 6
2.1.2分析師報告資訊意涵 6
2.1.3羊群效應 7
2.2長期資產特性相關文獻 8
2.2.1無形資產與研發費用 8
2.2.2機器、廠房與設備和資本支出 9
2.3過度投資相關文獻 9
2.3.1過度投資 9
2.4研究假說發展 10
三、研究方法 13
3.1資料來源與選樣方法 13
3.2實證模型與研究方法 13
3.2.1盈餘宣告發佈期間與分析師各期盈餘預測頻率之關係 14
3.2.2長期投資盈餘宣告發佈與分析師盈餘預測反應時間之關係 16
3.2.3長期投資與分析師長期盈餘預測發佈頻率之關係 17
3.2.4分析師盈餘預測與過度投資之關係 18
3.3變數衡量 20
3.3.1 Richardson（2006）過度投資變數衡量 20
3.3.2 McNichols（2008）過度投資變數衡量 22
3.3.3企業價值變數衡量 24
3.4敏感性分析 25
四、實證結果 27
4.1盈餘宣告發佈期間與分析師各期盈餘預測頻率之實證結果分析 27
4.2長期投資盈餘宣告發佈與分析師盈餘預測反應時間實證結果分析 27
4.3長期投資與分析師長期盈餘預測發佈頻率之實證結果分析 28
4.4分析師盈餘預測與過度投資之實證結果分析 28
4.5敏感性分析之實證結果分析 29
五、研究結論與建議 31
參考文獻 33

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指導教授

黃承祖

審核日期

2019-7-29

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