多板塊交界地區餘震時空風險之統計評估

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簡子軒(Zih-Syuan Jian) 查詢紙本館藏

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統計研究所

論文名稱

多板塊交界地區餘震時空風險之統計評估
(Statistical Evaluation of Spatial-Temporal-Magnitude of Short--Term Aftershock Hazard on a junction of multiple tectonic plates)

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摘要(中)

位於多板塊交界帶的台灣與日本，斷層多而複雜，因此在強主震後經常發生集群式的有感餘震。為能在強震後進行即時的短期餘震風險評估，本文利用混合二維常態分布描述餘震的空間分布，結合Reasenberg-Jones(簡記為 RJ)模型，建立餘震時空風險模式，簡記為SRJ模式。本文分別分析 1999年 9月 21日台灣集集規模 7.3 地震，以及2011 年 3 月 11 日發生在日本東部海域規模9.0地震後的餘震資料，藉SRJ模式或傳統的點格--RJ方法建立相對餘震風險圖用以預警強餘震，並且根據各種準則，評估上述相對餘震風險圖在即期預警短期強餘震的效果。在綜合評估之下，SRJ模式對於上述兩筆餘震序列的風險評估優於點格--RJ方法。

摘要(英)

Taiwan and Japan are located in the junction of multiple tectonic plates where involve complex fault zones. Therefore, there are clustered aftershocks of large earthquakes. In order to assess the risk of aftershock in near-real-time after the main shock, we propose a model with a mixture of bivariate normal distribution to describe the spatial hazard of aftershocks. The spatial hazard function joint with the Reasenberg-Jone (RJ) model then gives a new spatial-temporal-magnitude hazard of aftershocks, denoted by SRJ model. We employ the SRJ model to illustrate two aftershock sequences of, namely, the Mw 7.7 earthquake occurred on September 21, 1999, in Chi-Chi, Taiwan, and Mw 9.0 earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011, in Tohoku-Oki, Japan. The relative aftershock hazard (RAH) maps are constructed based on SRJ model or gridding-RJ method. The effect of RAH maps on depicting possible rupture area of forthcoming large aftershocks is evaluated according to a variety of criteria based on ROC curve and Molchan error diagram. The results finally demostrate that the RAH map based on the SRJ model provides an efficent and better forecast of spatial-temporal magnitude aftershock hazard than the one hazard on gridding--RJ model.

關鍵字(中)

★ 餘震發生率衰退法則
★ 地震規模頻率法則
★ 餘震時間規模風險模式
★ 混合分布
★ 機率增益量
★ 勝算增益量
★ 接收者操作特徵曲線
★ 相對餘震風險圖

關鍵字(英)

★ magnitude frequency law
★ time-magnitude model
★ mixture model
★ relative aftershock hazard map
★ Probability Gain
★ Odds gain
★ Receiver Operating Characteristic
★ relative aftershock hazard map

論文目次

摘要 iv
Abstract v
誌謝辭 vi
目錄 vii
圖目錄 ix
表目錄 x
一、研究動機與目的 1
二、文獻回顧 3
2.1 地震之規模–頻率模型 3
2.2 餘震之發生率 5
2.3 餘震之時間–規模風險模型 7
三、研究方法 9
3.1 餘震空間分布 9
3.1.1 K–平均分群演算法 9
3.1.2 EM 演算法 10
3.2 餘震時空規模風險模式 13
3.3 餘震風險預警效果之評估 14
四、實例分析 18
4.1 台灣集集餘震風險評估 18
4.2 日本東北地震風險評估 23
五、討論與總結 30
參考文獻 31

參考文獻

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指導教授

陳玉英(Yuh-Ing Chen)

審核日期

2019-7-30

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