地震圓弧之精度對台灣地區最強地震圓弧雙交叉之影響

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姓名

李瑋育(Wei-Yu Lee) 查詢紙本館藏

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土木工程學系

論文名稱

地震圓弧之精度對台灣地區最強地震圓弧雙交叉之影響
(The Influence of the Accuracy of Circular Arc of Earthquakes on the Strongest Double Intersection of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes around Taiwan)

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摘要(中)

李顯智博士於近期的研究文獻中提出了「最強地震圓弧交叉」的概念，而其有兩個交叉點的型態稱為「最強地震圓弧雙交叉」，此種地震圓弧交叉型態在預測強震上有較好的成效，由於先前的相關研究都是以一個固定的地震圓弧精度條件為前提，因此本研究主要聚焦在不同地震圓弧之精度條件對台灣地區最強地震圓弧雙交叉之影響。構成地震圓弧之地震事件分佈的位置之容許範圍由 TOLRe 和 TOLde 兩參數控制，本研究透過MATLAB 程式修改此兩參數，進而改變地震圓弧之精度，分析 1977 年至 2016 年間台灣地區在不同精度下搜尋到的最強地震圓弧雙交叉案例。
本研究發現精度太差時較難搜尋到確認成功的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，在精度條件(TOLRe=0.015, TOL de=0.13)和(TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.14)下得到特別高的強震預測成效，且在(TOLRe=0.012, TOLde=0.1)之下搜尋到了預測到2016年高雄美濃地震的最強地震圓弧雙交叉，證明最強地震圓弧雙交叉相關研究對地震之預測具有一定的參考與實用價值。

摘要(英)

In a recent paper, the idea of the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SICAE) was proposed by Dr. Lei, Hin-Chi. And the SICAE with two intersection points can be called the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes (SDICAE). It had been found that SDICAE is useful in predicting strong earthquakes. The related researches before had set up a fixed condition of accuracy of circular arc of earthquakes (CAE). Therefore, I focus on the influence of different conditions of accuracy of CAE on the SDICAE around Taiwan in this study. The tolerance of error of CAE is controlled by two parameters, TOLRe and TOLde. We can modulate these two parameters to change the condition of accuracy. We analyze the SDICAEs in different conditions of accuracy around Taiwan from 1977 to 2016.
We have found that, it is more difficult to find out a confirmed SDICAE in low accuracy. However, the efficiency of the predictions by the SDICAEs is especially high with (TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.13) and (TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.14). Besides, we found out a SDICAE which had predicted the occurrence of the 2016 Meinong Earthquake in the case with (TOLRe=0.012, TOLde=0.1). It proves that, the study of SDICAE may have some practical
value for earthquake prediction.

關鍵字(中)

★ 最強地震圓弧雙交叉

關鍵字(英)

★ the strongest double intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes

論文目次

摘要 ........................................................................................................................................ i
ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... ii
誌謝 ...................................................................................................................................... iii
目錄 ...................................................................................................................................... iv
圖目錄 ................................................................................................................................ viii
表目錄 ................................................................................................................................. xii
符號說明 ............................................................................................................................ xiv
一、緒論 ....................................................................................................................... 1
1-1 研究動機 ................................................................................................................ 1
1-2 研究目的 ................................................................................................................ 1
二、資料庫建置與地震圓弧介紹 ................................................................................. 3
2-1 地震目錄介紹 ........................................................................................................ 3
2-2 地震圓弧定義 ........................................................................................................ 3
2-3 地震圓弧精度 ........................................................................................................ 5
三、研究內容與方法 .................................................................................................... 6
3-1 研究範圍 ................................................................................................................ 6
3-2 地震圓弧之交叉 ..................................................................................................... 6
3-3 最強地震圓弧交叉所作之強震預測 ...................................................................... 7
3-4 理論驗證 ................................................................................................................ 8
3-5 精度之調整 ............................................................................................................ 9
3-6 研究步驟 .............................................................................................................. 10
四、研究案例分析說明 .............................................................................................. 11
4-1 方案 A .................................................................................................................. 12
4-1-1 TOLRe=0.0075, TOLde=0.05 ..................................................................... 12
4-1-2 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 12
4-1-3 TOLRe=0.0225, TOLde=0.15 ..................................................................... 13
4-1-4 TOLRe=0.03, TOLde=0.2 ........................................................................... 13
4-2 方案 B .................................................................................................................. 14
4-2-1 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.06 ....................................................................... 14
4-2-2 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.07 ....................................................................... 14
4-2-3 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.08 ....................................................................... 15
4-2-4 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.09 ....................................................................... 15
4-2-5 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 16
4-2-6 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.11 ....................................................................... 16
4-2-7 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.12 ....................................................................... 17
4-2-8 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.13 ....................................................................... 17
4-2-9 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.14 ....................................................................... 18
4-2-10 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.15 ..................................................................... 18
4-2-11 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.2 ....................................................................... 19
4-2-12 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.5 ....................................................................... 19
4-3 方案 C .................................................................................................................. 20
4-3-1 TOLRe=0.01, TOLde=0.1 ........................................................................... 20
4-3-2 TOLRe=0.012, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 21
4-3-3 TOLRe=0.013, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 22
4-3-4 TOLRe=0.014, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 22
4-3-5 TOLRe=0.015, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 23
4-3-6 TOLRe=0.016, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 23
4-3-7 TOLRe=0.017, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 24
4-3-8 TOLRe=0.018, TOLde=0.1 ......................................................................... 24
4-3-9 TOLRe=0.02, TOLde=0.1 ........................................................................... 25
4-3-10 TOLRe=0.025, TOLde=0.1 ....................................................................... 25
4-4 案例圖示說明 ...................................................................................................... 26
五、資料統計分析 ...................................................................................................... 27
5-1 方案 A 資料統計分析 .......................................................................................... 27
5-2 方案 B 資料統計分析 .......................................................................................... 30
5-3 方案 C 資料統計分析 .......................................................................................... 35
5-4 方案 A 之 SDCICAE 統計分析............................................................................ 40
5-5 方案 B 之 SDCICAE 統計分析 ............................................................................ 43
5-6 方案 C 之 SDCICAE 統計分析 ............................................................................ 48
5-7 方案 A 之 SCCICAE 統計分析 ............................................................................ 53
5-8 方案 B 之 SCCICAE 統計分析 ............................................................................ 56
5-9 方案 C 之 SCCICAE 統計分析 ............................................................................ 61
5-10 比較不同條件下預測到強震的機率 .................................................................. 66
5-11 所有 SDICAE 案例之統計分析 ......................................................................... 69
5-12 曾在不同方案精度重複出現之案例統計分析 ................................................... 73
5-13 曾在方案 B 之不同精度重複出現之案例統計分析 .......................................... 75
5-14 曾在方案 C 之不同精度重複出現之案例統計分析 .......................................... 77
六、結論 ..................................................................................................................... 79
參考文獻 ............................................................................................................................. 81
附錄一、本研究使用之程式碼 ........................................................................................ 82
附錄二、案例圖示 ............................................................................................................ 85

參考文獻

〔1〕 H.C. Lei and C.W. Tang, “Circular Arcs and Curvilinear Distributions of Events of Earthquakes in Taiwan”, The Thirteenth National Conference on Structural Engineering, The Third National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Taiwan, 2016.
〔2〕 H.C. Lei, Circles, “Circular Arcs and Lines of Earthquakes Around Taiwan”, The 40th National Conference on Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, Taiwan, 2016. 〔3〕 H.C. Lei, “Circles Arcs and Lines of Earthquakes Around Taiwan (II): Magnitude and Time”, The 15th Conference on Land Studies, Tainan, Taiwan, 2017.
〔4〕 H.C. Lei, “Some Ideas for Constructing Significant Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes”, The 2017 Taiwan-Japan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan, 2017.
〔5〕 H.C. Lei, W.Y. Tsai, Y.C. Shih, J.P. Yu, P.Y. Sun, Y.Y. Chen, and M.H. Chen, “An Elementary Evaluation of the Efficiency of a Method of Earthquake Prediction by Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes around Taiwan”, The 2017 TaiwanJapan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan, 2017.
〔6〕 H.C. Lei, P.Y. Sun, Y.Y. Chen, and M.H. Chen, “An Elementary Analysis of the Strongest Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes around Taiwan”, The Fourteenth National Conference on Structural Engineering/ The Fourth National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Taichung, Taiwan, 2018.
〔7〕 H.C. Lei, “Strongest Double Intersections of Circular Arcs of Earthquakes Around Taiwan”, The 23rd Forum on Land Use and Planning, Tainan, Taiwan, 2019. 〔8〕 H.C. Lei, ASICAE by HinChi Lei to find the strongest intersections of circular arcs of earthquakes. https://youtu.be/tvgYLpoH9T4, 2019.
〔9〕 H.C. Lei, Developing the prediction of strong earthquakes within 70 days, https://youtu.be/gFvJ0T99TJg, 2019.
〔10〕中央氣象局，http://www.cwb.gov.tw。
〔11〕簡子琦，「以強震發生等機率線和虛擬地震目錄驗證最強地震圓弧雙交叉理論在台灣地區的預測效率」，國立中央大學，碩士論文，民國 109 年

指導教授

李顯智(Hin-Chi Lei)

審核日期

2020-6-30

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