伯利茲河流域中游森林恢復項目的成本效益分析

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論文名稱

伯利茲河流域中游森林恢復項目的成本效益分析
(Cost-Benefit Analysis of a forest restoration project in the Middle Reaches of the Belize River Watershed)

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摘要(中)

森林生態系統對世界許多人的經濟和生計至關重要。然而，森林的可持續服務功能受到與人類有關的土地利用影響的極大威脅。因此，正確管理，養護，保護和恢復這些生態系統，以從其提供的環境商品和服務（EGS）中獲得最大收益非常重要。這項研究的重點是成本效益分析（CBA），用於評估和估算伯利茲河分水嶺（BRW）中游地區的森林恢復項目的收益和成本，該流域可支持近50％的伯利茲人口。 CBA被用作決策工具，以確定在研究區域內實施為期十年（2019-2028年）的森林恢復項目的可行性。選擇該研究區域的原因是，由於農業和城市發展的不可持續性，該地區是流域中受負面影響最大的區域，因此迫切需要保護和恢復。在進行的CBA中，自然資源評估（NRV）方法被用作輸入數據，以評估研究區森林恢復所提供服務的收益。具體來說，在 “現狀/照常營業（BAU）” 方案中，使用市場定價的市場估值和收益轉移方法評估成本和收益，而恢復率分別為25％和40％。估計，比較每個方案的淨現值（NPV）和效益成本比（BCR）（CBA的輸出值），並將其用作確定項目可行性的決策標準，並選擇最合適的方案實施。
研究結果表明，如現狀/ BAU情景所示，如果在研究區域中未進行任何干預或實施任何項目，則沒有任何好處，此外，還會給社會帶來環境和社會成本。實施恢復項目的成本評估表明，在25％的恢復情況下，NPV估計為$ 2,008,206-$ 3,013,346。從$ 2,916,512美元到$ 4,169,017美元，在10年的時間範圍內進行40％的恢復。在實施25％的恢復方案時，項目實施帶來的淨現值收益估計在16,188,538美元-24,556,845美元之間；從$ 24,338,955美元到$ 38,759,050美元，在相同的10年時間範圍內恢復40％。從CBA的淨現值（NPV）以7％的折扣率得出的結果表明，在Status-Quo / BAU方案中，實施森林恢復項目所獲得的收益/經濟價值大大超過了未實施該項目的情況。在25％的恢復方案中，BCR估計為8.96，在40％的恢復方案中，BCR為9.52。結論是，CBA進行了評估成本和收益的綜合方法，以使人們對研究區域的森林現狀有所了解，並協助伯利茲做出保護和恢復這一受威脅生態系統的決策，並提供服務。分析結果還提供了關於森林的經濟貢獻及其在伯利茲可持續發展中的重要性的見識。伯利茲河流域中游地區的森林恢復計劃應予以實施，因為其收益超過了進行的CBA的成本。

摘要(英)

Forest ecosystems are vital to the economies and livelihoods of many people around the world. The sustainable service functionalities of forests, however, are greatly threatened by human-related land-use impacts. It is, therefore, very important to properly manage, conserve, protect, and restore these ecosystems to achieve the maximum benefits from the environmental goods and services (EGS) they provide. This research focused on a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) assessing and estimating the benefits and costs of a forest restoration project in the Middle Reaches’ of the Belize River Watershed (BRW), a watershed that supports close to 50% of Belize’s population. The CBA was used as the decision-making tool to determine the feasibility for the implementation of the 10-year (2019-2028) forest restoration project in the study area. The area under study was selected because it is the most negatively impacted region in the watershed, as a result of impacts from unsustainable agricultural and urban development, and thus is in urgent need of protection and restoration. Natural Resource Valuation (NRV) methods were utilized as input data in the CBA conducted, in estimating benefits through the services provided by restoring forests in the study area. Market priced market valuation and Benefit Transfer methods, specifically, were used in the evaluation of costs and benefits in a ‘Status-Quo/ Business as Usual (BAU)’ scenario against a 25% and a 40% restoration scenario. The Net Present Value (NPV) and the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), (output values of CBA) of each scenario were estimated, compared, and used as decision-making criteria to determine the project’s feasibility, and selection of the most appropriate option for implementation.
The findings of the research gathered that there are no benefits if there is no intervention done or project implemented in the study area, as presented in a Status Quo/BAU scenario, however, there is an environmental and social cost to society. Cost assessments with the implementation of restoration project showed that NPV were estimated to range from $2,008,206 - $3,013,346 US in 25% restoration scenario; and from $2,916,512 - $4,169,017 US in 40% restoration scenario over 10-year time horizon. The NPV benefits estimated from the implementation of projects were estimated to range from $16,188,538 US - $24,556,845 US in 25% restoration scenario; and from $24,338,955 US - $38,759,050 US in 40% restoration scenario over same 10-year time horizon. The results gathered from the NPV of CBA conducted at a 7% discount rate showed that the benefits/economic value gained from the implementation of forest restoration projects greatly outweigh that without the project’s implementation in a Status-Quo/BAU scenario. BCR was estimated to be 8.96 in a 25% restoration scenario and 9.52 in a 40% restoration scenario. It is concluded that the CBA conducted provided an integrated approach of assessing costs and benefits in bringing awareness to the current status of forests in the study area, and assisting in decision making in Belize in protecting and restoring this threatened ecosystem, and services provided. The results of the analysis also provided insight into the economic contribution of forests, and their importance in the sustainable development of Belize. A forest restoration program in the Middle Reaches of the Belize River watershed should be implemented because the benefits outweigh the costs in the CBA conducted.

關鍵字(中)

★ 成本效益分析
★ 伯利茲河流域
★ 自然資源評估

關鍵字(英)

★ Cost-Benefit Analysis
★ Belize River Watershed
★ Natural Resource Valuation

論文目次

中文摘要……………………………………………………………………………..i
ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………...ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT……………………………………………………………. iii
LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………...iv
LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………………v
ABBREVIATIONS……………………………………………………………………vii
SYMBOLS…………………………………………………………………………….ix
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………….1
1.1 Background………………………………………………………………………….1
1.2 Thesis Organization…………………………………………………………………3
1.3 Study Motivation & Relevance……………………………………………………….4
1.4 Research Purpose, Scope and Objectives…………………………………………...6
1.4.1 Study Purpose…………………………………………………………….6
1.4.2 Scope of Research………………………………………………………...7
1.4.3 General Objective…………………………………………………………7
1.4.4 Specific Objectives……………………………………………………….8
1.5 Limitations………………………………………………………………………….8
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………………………….10
2.1 Watersheds………………………………………………………………………….10
2.1.1 Watershed and its importance for Belize………………………………….11
2.2 Forest Ecosystems in Watersheds…………………………………………………...12
2.2.1 Defining forest…………………………………………………………….12
2.2.2 Importance of forests………………………………………………………12
2.2.3 Forests in Belize Watersheds………………………………………………15
2.2.4 Threats to forest ecosystems in watersheds……………………………….17
2.3 Forest Landscape Restoration……………...………………………………………18
2.4 Cost Benefit Analysis……………………………………………………………….20
2.4.1 Uses and importance of CBA……………………………………………21
2.4.2 Main components of CBA……………………………………………….22
2.4.3 Overview of CBA in FLR projects………………………………………23
2.5 Natural Resource Valuation Methods……………………………………………….25
2.5.1 Total Economic Valuation…………………………………………………25
2.5.2 Market, Non- Market & Benefit Transfer Methods……………………….27
2.5.3 Natural Resource Valuation in Belize…………………………………….28
2.5.4 Priority ecosystem services in Belize……………………………………...29
CHAPTER 3: STUDY AREA………………………………………………………….32
3.1 Overview of Study Area…………………………………………………………….32
3.1.1 General Background of the country of Belize…………………………….32
3.1.2 Belize River Watershed………………………………………………….35
3.2 Middle Reaches of the Belize River Watershed…………………………………….37
3.2.1. Main Threats in the Study Area………………………………………….42
3.2.2 Visual Depictions of Conditions in the Study Area……………………….45
CHAPTER 4: METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………….49
4.1 Steps of Cost-Benefit Analysis……………………….………………………………51

4.2 Step 1: Desired Policy/ Project Outcome………….…………………………………51
4.3 Step 2: Impact Assessment…………………………………………………………..51
4.3.1 Defining degraded land area to be restored…………………….………….52
4.3.2 Activities to restore degraded land & Defining Stakeholders………………56 4.4 Step 3: Valuation…………….……………………………………………………….56
4.4.1 Valuation of Benefits in Restoration scenarios…………………………….56
4.4.1.1 Forest ecosystem service benefits………………………………..56
4.4.1.2 NRV Method…………………………………………………….58
4.4.1.3 Valuation of benefits using Market Price Method……………….59
4.4.1.4 Valuation of benefits using BT Method………………………….62
4.4.2 Valuation of benefits in Status-Quo/BAU scenario………………………..67
4.4.3 Valuation of costs in restoration…………………………………………...67
4.4.4 Valuation of costs in Status-Quo/BAU scenario…………………………..69
4.5 Step 4: Calculation Methodology……………………………………………………70
4.5.1 Net Benefits……………………………………………………..................70
4.5.2 Discounting………………………………………………………………...70
4.5.3 Net Present Value………………………………………………………….72
4.5.4 Benefit-Cost Ratio…………………………………………………………72
4.5.5 Sensitivity Analysis………………………………………………………..73
CHAPTER 5: RESULTS & DISCUSSION………………………………………….74
5.1 Modeling Future Land use within Study Area………….……………………………74
5.1.1 Historical Data…………………………………………………………...74
5.1.2 Status Quo/Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario………………………….80
5.1.3 25% restoration scenario…………………………………………………80
5.1.4 40% restoration scenario………………………………………………....81
5.2 Estimating Costs……………………………………………………………………..83
5.2.1 Status- Quo/ BAU scenario……………………………………………….83
5.2.2 Restoration scenarios (25% & 40%)……………………………………….86
5.3 Estimating ecosystem services (Benefits) in restoration scenarios…….……………89
5.4 Decision making criteria: Net Present Value & Benefit-Cost Ratio…………………93
5.5 Sensitivity Analysis………………………………………………………………….94
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS………………………...96
6.1 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………...96
6.2 Recommendation…………………………………………………………………….96
BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………………………98
APPENDICES……………………………………………………………………106
Appendix I……………………………………………………………………...106
Appendix II…………………………………………………………………….111
Appendix III……………………………………………………………………118

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指導教授

吳瑞賢(Ray Shyan Wu)

審核日期

2020-8-20

推文