路網容量信賴度之研究

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姓名

徐敏超(Min-Cho Hsue) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

土木工程學系

論文名稱

路網容量信賴度之研究
(Network Capacity Reliability Analysis)

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★ 含額外限制式動態用路人均衡模型之研究	★ 動態起迄旅次矩陣推估模型之研究
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摘要(中)

近年來，信賴度分析在各領域日趨重要。由於信賴度分析方法能透過模擬方式瞭解系統處於不確定的狀態下，達成預期目標的機率，所以實務上許多系統（如：電力系統、給水系統與通訊網路系統等），陸續將其納為系統規劃、設計與運作之一環。在交通運輸路網中，路網信賴度分析，不僅可以作為路網績效評估的重要指標，更可進一步發現路網中的敏感性與關鍵性路段，作為日後交通管理與改善策略的重要依據。
目前國內尚無針對交通運輸網路進行信賴度分析之研究。而國外在此方面的相關研究，又多以路網連繫信賴度(Connectivity Reliability)與路網旅行時間信賴度(Travel Time Reliability)作為主要探討主軸。Chen et al.(2002)提出以路網容量信賴度作為路網績效評估的新指標，並說明此指標，較以往所提出的路網信賴度指標更具一般性。本研究參考其信賴度分析程序，並針對其進行局部修正，結合蒙地卡羅模擬、含路段流入率容量限制之動態用路人均衡模型、路網容量模型、敏感度分析與不確定分析等方法，獲得各項信賴度資訊，進一步探討路網容量信賴度。本研究之分析架構主要以蒙地卡羅模擬產生路段容量變數，獲得路網退化資料後，進行含路段流入率容量限制動態用路人均衡模型求解，並利用卓訓榮(1991)提出之廣義反矩陣法(Generalized Inverse Approach)求算敏感度分析資訊，其後結合各項信賴度分析方法，進一步獲得路網各項信賴度分析資訊進行評估。

摘要(英)

Reliability analysis studies the probability achieving a specified objective for a certain system, which may appear in different areas such as transportation, electric power supply, water supply, and telecommunication systems. Since the performance measures of a network can be provided and critical links of a network can be identified, reliability analysis is nowadays incorporated into the framework of system planning as an essential component by many large projects.
Research on reliability analysis is still in embryo stage. Though contents of reliability analyses are broad in spectrum, the prevailing papers are mainly to deal with the reliability on connectivity and travel time using the simulation related approach. Chen et al (2002) proposed the network reserve capacity as a new measure of network performance. The procedure of computing the network reserve capacity involves Monte Carlo simulation, static user equilibrium, sensitivity analysis and some statistical transformation. This procedure contains the connectivity and travel time reliability as special cases and thus has higher degree of applicability. However, the framework adopted by Chen et al (2002) is rather demanding in computation and lacks temporal consideration in the model formulation. This project proposes a new solution procedure including dynamic user equilibrium model and sensitivity analysis involving generalized inverse approach (Cho, 1991). This new approach will be elaborated in depth and validated by means of numerical example.

關鍵字(中)

★ 保留容量
★ 路網容量信賴度
★ 含額外限制式之動態用路人均衡模型
★ 路網容量模型
★ 敏感度分析
★ 不確定性分析

關鍵字(英)

★ Sensitivity Analysis
★ Uncertainty Analysis
★ Network Capacity Reliability Analysis
★ Dynamic Capacitated User-Optimal Model
★ Reserve Capacity

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 vii
第一章緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 1
1.3 研究目的 2
1.4 研究範圍與假設 3
1.4.1 研究假設 3
1.4.2 研究範圍與內容 3
1.5 研究流程 3
第二章文獻回顧 3
2.1 動態用路人均衡模型 3
2.2 含路段容量限制條件 3
2.3 路網容量模型 3
2.4 變分不等式敏感度分析 3
2.5 信賴度分析 3
第三章考量服務水準之路網容量模型 3
3.1 路段流入率容量限制動態用路人均衡模型 3
3.1.1 均衡條件 3
3.1.2 變分不等式模型 3
3.2 考量服務水準之路網容量模型 3
3.2.1 模型構建 3
3.2.2 模型比較分析 3
3.3 求解演算法 3
3.3.1 對偶法 3
3.3.2 梯度投影法 3
3.3.3 線性反應函數區間逼近法 3
3.3.4 考量服務水準之路網容量演算法步驟 3
3.4 範例測試 3
3.4.1 輸入資料 3
3.4.2 測試情境 3
3.4.3 測試結果 3
3.5 小結 3
第四章變分不等式敏感度分析 3
4.1 變分不等式敏感度分析理論 3
4.2 變分不等式敏感度分析於網路均衡流量問題之應用 3
4.2.1 不包含微擾變數之網路均衡問題 3
4.2.2 包含微擾變數之網路均衡問題 3
4.3 以路徑流量進行敏感度分析 3
4.4 利用廣義反矩陣進行敏感度分析 3
4.5 例證分析 3
4.5.1 輸入資料 3
4.5.2 微擾參數之均衡結果 3
4.5.3 利用廣義反矩陣計算敏感度分析資訊 3
4.5.4 由敏感度分析資訊推估路段流入率 3
4.6 小結 3
第五章路網容量信賴度分析 3
5.1 不確定性來源與其機率分配 3
5.1.1 不確定性來源 3
5.1.2 隨機變量之分配與相依性 3
5.2 信賴度分析 3
5.2.1 路網容量信賴度 3
5.2.2 旅行時間信賴度 3
5.3 績效指標之敏感度分析 3
5.3.1 起迄對旅行時間敏感度分析 3
5.3.2 路網容量敏感度分析 3
5.4 不確定分析 3
5.5 信賴度評估程序 3
5.5.1 蒙地卡羅模擬(Monte Carlo Simulation) 3
5.5.2 隨機變量產生 3
5.6 實例測試 3
5.6.1 輸入資料 3
5.6.2 蒙地卡羅模擬 3
5.6.3 測試結果 3
5.6.3.1 路網容量信賴度 3
5.6.3.2 旅行時間信賴度分析 3
5.6.3.3 路網容量敏感度分析 3
5.6.3.4 起迄對旅行時間敏感度分析 3
5.6.3.5 不確定性分析 3
5.7 小結 3
第六章結論與建議 3
6.1 結論 3
6.2 建議 3
符號說明 3
參考文獻 3
附錄A I

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指導教授

陳惠國(Huey-Kuo Chen)

審核日期

2003-7-14

推文