貝里斯消費者購置電動汽車之經濟評估及消費者需求之研究

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史安潔(Angelita Staine) 查詢紙本館藏

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國際永續發展碩士在職專班

論文名稱

貝里斯消費者購置電動汽車之經濟評估及消費者需求之研究
(Economic Evaluation and Demands for Consumers in Belize to Purchase Battery Electric Vehicles)

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摘要(中)

貝里斯現今試圖推動一項增加電動汽車用戶的交通政策以邁向低碳經濟社會。本研究藉由成本效益分析方法(CBA)分析比較電池式電動汽車（以下簡稱電動汽車）與內燃機式汽車的購置成本效益，及應用層級分析法(AHP)於購置電動汽車的六項標準，包括購買成本、期望汽車耐用年限、充電站普遍性、每次充電可駕里程、充電時間及二氧化碳減排等之偏好優先順序；並採用陳述式偏好調查法(SPS)調查貝里斯消費者於本項調查所提供之五種電動汽車型式的選購基本需求與條件。
以出廠新車五年內的成本分析結果顯示，電動汽車之成本效益高於內燃機汽車。本研究調查發現，有甚多貝里斯消費者如果換車會考慮購置電動汽車，但是他們甚為關切電動汽車的購價高低。這需要當局實施一項降低電動汽車與內燃機汽車的售價差距之經濟誘因激勵政策，包括電動車購買補貼與退稅。研究調查顯示消費者較能接受之電動車售價在美金$36,000至 $43,185之間，而每次充滿電期望至少能駕駛里程達249英哩，此外，貝里斯消費者較偏愛的電動車車型是休旅車與轎車。
本研究結果指出，電動汽車工業之發展於減少貝里斯二氧化碳足跡的國家發展方向上，包括減少進口能源的依賴度，具有關鍵性角色，而本研究可作為貝里斯有關當局推動電動汽車政策之參考。

摘要(英)

Belize is currently attempting to transition to a low carbon economy by implementing an electric transportation strategy that is to increase the users of electric vehicles. This study sought to analyze the cost effectiveness of a battery electric vehicles (BEV) against an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE vehicle) as well as evaluate the demands of users for purchasing battery electric vehicles in Belize. This was done for the consumers in Belize by using the analytic technique and surveying tools of cost benefit analysis (CBA), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and stated preference survey (SPS).
CBA is used to measure the costs and benefits of the decision in purchasing BEV to replace ICE vehicles, and AHP technique is used for the selection of BEV and prioritization of six criteria including purchase cost, life expectancy, access to charging stations, travel range, charging time, and carbon dioxide reduction. The use of stated preference survey (SPS) is to survey how customers might behave in five models of BEV selection by showing their preference. Results indicate that the BEV is more cost effective over its 5-year lifetime than ICE vehicles in Belize. According to the survey from this study, many Belizean consumers would consider having an electric vehicle as their next car purchase, however, they are much concerned about the purchase cost of BEV. The necessary incentive policies must be implemented to decrease the initial cost of the electric vehicle, thus increasing its adoption in Belize. One the primary measures is purchase subsidies including tax rebates of vehicle purchase to reduce the price gap with conventional vehicles. To increase marketability of electric vehicles entering Belize’s automobile market, it is suggested that the purchase price is within the range of $36,000- $43,185, the travel distance at least 249 miles and the most preference BEVs are SUVs and sedans.

For moving towards a low carbon country, reduction of carbon dioxide CO2 emissions from transportation is a necessary policy in Belize. This study indicates that Belize’s electricity generation mix boosts the BEV’s effectiveness in reducing annual CO2 emissions. This finding demonstrates that BEV can play a critical role in reducing Belize’s carbon footprint, specifically within the transport industry, thus can be of great influence in Belize realizing one of its INDC (intended nationally determined contributions) goals, which is lowering energy concentrations within transport by endorsing conversion to sustainable transportation. The results of economic analysis and the findings of Belizean consumers’ demands from this study could provide a valuable information for the authorities of Belize in promoting electric vehicle strategies.

關鍵字(中)

★ 電池式電動汽車
★ 內燃機式汽車
★ 成本效益分析
★ 層級分析法
★ 陳述式偏好調查

關鍵字(英)

★ Battery Electric Vehicle
★ Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
★ Cost Benefit Analysis
★ Analytic Hierarchy Survey
★ Stated Preference Survey

論文目次

中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
Acknowledgements iii
Table of Contents iv
List of Figures v
List of Tables vi
Acronyms and Symbols vii

Chapter I: Introduction 1
1-1 Belize’s Transportation Energy Demands 1
1-2 Research Motivation 6
1-2-1 Belize’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Goals 6
1-3 Research Scope 8
1-3-1 Research Questions and Expected Contribution 8
1-3-2 Research Objectives 9
1-3-3 Importance of Study 9
1-4 Thesis Outline 10
Chapter II: Literature Review 11
2-1 Transport Industry in the World and Belize 11
2-1-1 The Transportation Demands of Central American/Caribbean Countries 14
2-2 The Trend of Sustainable Transportation with Electric Vehicles (EVs) 16
2-2-1 Modes of Sustainable Transportation 17
2-2-2 Electric Vehicles 18
2-2-2-1 Types of Electric Vehicles 18
2-2-2-2 Advantages of Electric Vehicles 20
2-2-2-3 Disadvantages of Electric Vehicles 21
2-3 Current policies in promoting sustainable transportation of developing countries 23
2-3-1 Sustainable Transportation Initiatives in Latin America 23
2-3-1-1 Argentina 24
2-3-1-2 Brazil 24
2-3-1-3 Chile 24
2-3-1-4 Colombia 25
2-3-1-5 Costa Rica 25
2-3-1-6 Mexico 25
2-3-1-7 Panama 25
2-3-1-8 Incentive Policy for Electric Mobility in Latin America 26
2-3-2 Sustainable Transportation in Belize 30
2-3-2-1 Sustainable Transportation Initiatives in Belize 30
2-4 Benefit-Cost Analysis 31
2-4-1 Case Study: Cost Benefit Analysis of introducing Electric Vehicles in Bhutan33
Chapter III Methodology 42
3-1 Cost Benefit Analysis 43
3-1-1 Vehicle Selection 43
3-1-2 Calculation of Vehicle Costs and Benefits 46
3-1-2-1 Vehicle Costs 46
3-1-2-2 Vehicle Benefits 49
3-1-3 Net Present Value 50
3-2 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) 53
3-2-1 Problem Structuring 54
3-2-2 AHP Session 55
3-2-3 Analysis 56
3-3 Stated Preference Survey 58
CHAPTER IV: Results 59
4-1 Cost Benefit Analysis 59
4-1-1 Investment Cost 59
4-1-2 Operation Cost 60
4-1-3 Maintenance Cost 62
4-1-4 Emissions & Damage Cost 63
4-1-5 Vehicle Benefits 68
4-1-6 Total Cost of Ownership 69
4-2 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Survey 75
4-2-1 Case Study: Identification and Analysis of Barriers against Electric Vehicle
Use 75
4-2-2 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Survey 77
4-3 Stated Preference Survey 82
4-3-1 The market acceptance of electric motorcycles in Taiwan experience
through a stated preference analysis 82
4-3-2 Stated Preference Survey 85

CHAPTER V: Conclusion 87
5-1 Conclusion 87
5-2 Recommendations 88
5-3 Future Work 88

Bibliography 90
Appendix A 94
Appendix B 101

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指導教授

廖萬里(Wan-Li Liao)

審核日期

2021-7-27

推文