土壤液化風險更新後對住宅價格之影響-以臺北市為例

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吳懿真(Wu,Yi-Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

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土壤液化風險更新後對住宅價格之影響-以臺北市為例
(The Effect of Soil-liquefaction Risk Information Update on Housing Prices：Evidence from Taipei, Taiwan)

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★ 空氣汙染對房地產價格的影響－台灣之實證研究

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摘要(中)

揭露正確的資訊及更新風險訊息對於房地產市場來說非常重要，能幫助買家與賣家做出正確的決策，並促進市場效率。本文的研究問題為：土壤液化風險更新後，對住宅價格之影響。本研究利用2016年3月14日～2021年1月31日臺北市的住宅交易資料與政府歷次公告的土壤液化風險地圖進行實證分析，採取差異中之差異法，估計土壤液化地圖更新後，風險產生變化的區域其住宅價格是否受到影響。
實證結果發現，地圖更新後導致的風險變化確實會影響住宅價格。在風險地圖第一次更新後，移入高風險的區域，住宅的每坪售出價格會顯著下跌約3.4%；在風險上升一個等級的區域，每坪售出價格會下跌約3.8%。風險地圖第二次更新後，移出高風險的區域，住宅每坪售出價格顯著下跌1.8%。在風險地圖第三次更新後，移出高風險的區域，住宅每坪售出價格會增加4.3%；風險上升兩級的區域，住宅每坪售出價格會下跌2.9%。

摘要(英)

Posting correct information and updating risk information is very important for the housing market. It can help buyers and sellers make correct decisions and promote the efficiency of market. The research question of this study is: The effect of soil-liquefaction information update on housing prices. This study used the housing transaction data of Taipei City from March 14, 2016 to January 31, 2021 and the soil liquefaction risk map announced by the government to conduct an empirical analysis.
In the empirical results we found that the risk changes caused by the map update would indeed affect residential prices. The results show that after the first update of the risk map, moving into a high-risk area, the housing price would drop significantly by around 3.4%. In this area which the risk rose by one grade, the housing price would drop by around 3.8%. After the second update of the risk map, moving out of high-risk areas, the housing price would drop significantly by 1.8%. Then, after the third update of the risk map, moving out of high-risk areas would increase the housing price by 4.3%. In this area which the risk rose by two grades would decrease housing price by 2.9%.

關鍵字(中)

★ 土壤液化
★ 風險認知
★ 房價
★ 差異中之差異法

關鍵字(英)

★ Soil liquefaction
★ Risk perception
★ Housing prices
★ Difference-in-Differences

論文目次

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 v
表目錄 vi
1緒論 1
2文獻回顧 5
3資料來源與相關統計分析 9
3.1資料來源與說明 9
3.2臺北市境內土壤液化風險變動情形 14
(1)2016年9月10日土壤液化地圖第一次更新 14
(2)2018年3月22日土壤液化地圖第二次更新 18
(3)2020年10月15日土壤液化地圖第三次更新 22
4研究方法與實證模型 26
5實證結果 30
5.1落入高風險、移出高風險與維持高風險對住宅價格之影響 30
5.2風險變化方向對住宅價格之影響 34
5.3風險變動程度對住宅價格之影響 37
6結論 41
參考文獻 44

參考文獻

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指導教授

鄭子長(Tzu-Chang Forrest Cheng)

審核日期

2021-8-30

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