| 摘要(英) |
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly around the world, and governments imposed restrictions has changed human life and influenced global economy. In March 2020, when WHO announced that COVID-19 has caused a global pandemic, Bitcoin plunged 37.17% in a single day. With the success of the COVID-19 vaccine development and the economic relief package provided by the government, Bitcoin price again reached an all-time high. Whether bitcoin is a diversification investment, a safe haven in a stock market crash, or a replacement for traditional safe-haven assets.
In this paper, we employ feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method to analyze the impact of the pandemic on Bitcoin, gold and Standard & Poor′s 500 (S&P 500 Index). The period from short to long is divided into the COVID-19 period, the Bitcoin period and the full sample period. First, analyze the price of Bitcoin during the COVID-19 and the Bitcoin period, and compare with the price of gold and the S&P 500 index. Finally, according to the behavior of gold and the S&P 500 index during global financial crisis, analyze how Bitcoin price will change.
We find that the behavior of Bitcoin is similar to gold over a long-term period. When the financial crisis broke out, the price of gold fell by 16.19%. The price of gold rose by 3.81% when the epidemic occurred. Recalling that the 2008 global financial crisis while Bitcoin was proposed, a decentralized blockchain network would be sent directly without going through a financial institution, which can reduce the impact of systemic risks. We expected that when investors lose confidence in the traditional financial market or the fiat money, the price of Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high, which can be demand as a diversified investment tool. |
| 參考文獻 |
Asia Perspectives. AUG 2020 - VOLUME 1. “Covid-19 ‘net positive’ for cryptocurrencies.” https://www.intuition.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COVID-19-‘Net-Positive’-For-Crypto-Currencies-2.pdf (accessed December 16, 2021)
Azar, S. Antoine. 2015. “The Relation of the US Dollar with Oil Prices, Gold Prices, and the US Stock Market.” Research in World Economy, Vol. 6, No. 1
Baur, Dirk G, and Thomas K. McDermott. 2009. “Is gold a safe haven? International evidence” Journal of Banking & Finance, volume 34, 1886－1898
Baur, Dirk G., and Brian M. Lucey. 2010. “Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold.” Financial Review, 45, 217–229.
Jamie Redman, 2022. “Will Bitcoin Fall to $13,800? － What an 80% Drawdown Will Look Like From Here.” Bitcoin. com, https://globalonlinemony.com/will-bitcoin-fall-to-13800-what-an-80-drawdown-will-look-like-from-here-markets-and-prices-bitcoin-news/(accessed June 15, 2022)
Bouri, Elie, Lars Ivar Hagfors., and Peter Molnár. 2017. “On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?” Finance Research Letters, 20, 192-198
Business of Apps, 2022. “Binance Revenue and Usage Statistics (2022).” https://www.businessofapps.com/data/binance-statistics/(accessed February 20, 2022)
Kunkler, Michael, and Ronald MacDonald. 2016. "The price of gold as a hedge against the us dollar." Applied Finance Letters, volume 5, issue 1, 2016
Conlon, Thomas, and Richard McGee. 2020. “Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the Covid-19 bear market.” Finance Research Letters, 35, 101607
Demir, Ender, Mehmet H. Bilgin., Gokhan Karabulut., and Aslı C. Doker. 2020. “The Relationship between Cryptocurrencies and COVID-19 Pandemic.” SSRN, 3585147
Engle, Robert F., and Granger, Clive W. J. 1987. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing." Econometrica. 55 (2): 251–276.
Guzmán, Alexander, Christian Pinto-Gutiérrez., and María A Trujillo. 2021. “Trading Cryptocurrencies as a Pandemic Pastime: COVID-19 Lockdowns and Bitcoin Volume” Mathematics, 9 (15): 1771
Goodell, John, and Stéphane Goutte. 2021. “Cryptocurrencies and COVID-19: What have we learned?” HAL, halshs-03211702
Global Legal Research Directorate. 2021. “Regulation of cryptocurrency around the world.” The Law Library of Congress, https://www.loc.gov/item/2021687419/(accessed June 8, 2021)
Nakamoto, Satoshi. 2008. “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” https: //bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf (accessed December 31, 2021)
Urquhart, Andrew. 2018. “What Causes the Attention of Bitcoin?” Economics Letters. 166: 40-44
Zhu, Yechen, David Dickinson., and Jianjun Li. 2017. “Analysis on the influence factors of Bitcoin’s price based on VEC model.” Financial Innovation, 3:3
Tsai, Chris. 2021，「加密貨幣是什麼？加密貨幣支付服務有望成為未來市場趨勢」，COMMEET，2022年6月6日取自於https://go.commeet.co/blog/數位轉型/加密貨幣/
李政益、郭宏偉與許建邦(2021)，「COVID-19 疫苗接種後對國際疫情趨勢影響之評析」，《疫情報導》，(37)11:153-174。
邱唯婷與湯佳勲(2018)，「虛擬貨幣之探討─以比特幣為例」，台北外匯市場發展基金會委託計畫。
周慧冠(2020)，「比特幣與金融資產之連動關係」，國立臺北大學統計學系碩士論文。
莊温怡(2021)，「探討影響比特幣礦工行為的重要因素」，國立臺北大學統計學系碩士論文。
陳柏文(2018)，「從金融資產與貨幣之觀點探討比特幣之價值」，國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
陳明志(2019)，「加密貨幣之探討:以比特幣為例」，中華大學科技管理學系碩士論文。
陳柔妤(2019)，「文字探勘與比特幣漲跌趨勢預測分析」，天主教輔仁大學金融與國際企業學系碩士論文。
曾羽榕(2020)，「美國 S&P 500 股價指數與 黃金、原油期貨、美元指數間之波動外溢效果及避險效果探討」，國立臺北商業大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
蔡宇凱(2015)，「美國公債殖利率、股市預期益本比及黃金隱含報酬率之探討」，國立交通大學經營管理研究所碩士論文。
劉乙蓁(2021)，「以推文情緒預測比特幣跨交易所價格波動的可行性分析」，國立高雄科技大學金融系碩士論文。
蕭建文(2009)，「金融風暴前後之金價、油價、美元匯率與利率關聯性分析」，國立中正大學財務金融碩士論文。 |
[Endnote RIS 格式]
[相關文章]
[文章引用]
[完整記錄]
[館藏目錄]
[檢視]
plurk
funp
live
udn
HD
myshare
netvibes
friend
youpush
delicious
baidu
Google bookmarks
del.icio.us
hemidemi
facebook
twitter
google
reddit