| 摘要(英) |
The US-China trade war started in 2018, which has exerted a devastating impact on the global economy. Despite the economic downturn worldwide, some countries have benefited from the effect of order transfers. The paper intends to verify, in the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method, whether Taiwan has benefited from the effect of order transfers after the outbreak of US-China trade war and increased its semiconductor exports to the United States. Semiconductors account for the highest percentage of Taiwan’s exports, thus counting as one economic artery in Taiwan’s exports. Based on the facts that the United States is Taiwan’s second largest trading partner and that it has reduced the amount of imports from China due to an increase in tariffs resulting from the trade war, it has been speculated that the effect of order transfers existed. However, with the inclusion of product category, month, export destination, and other variables in the models, and the use of samples with various scopes, the empirical results of each model have demonstrated that the trade war did not significantly increase Taiwan’s semiconductor exports to the United States. Nonetheless, the empirical results have also shown that the semiconductor sector achieved significantly better export performance than other sectors in Taiwan, and that Taiwan exported more semiconductors to the United States than other countries. In addition, Taiwan’s exports on the whole have performed significantly better after the trade war, with a particularly remarkable increase in the semiconductor exports to China. These results conform to what has been anticipated. |
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