改善實獲時程方法以提升工期推估準確度之研究

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姓名

陳雨昕(Yu-Hsin Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

土木系營建管理碩士班

論文名稱

改善實獲時程方法以提升工期推估準確度之研究
(Improving Earned Schedule Method to Enhance the Accuracy of Duration Forecasting)

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摘要(中)

時程管理是營建專案於專案生命週期不同階段皆非常重視的工作。國內工程
專案多採用要徑法進行工期推估，但此方法在專案執行中的控制功能仍然有可改善之空間。因此，本研究以國外相關研究為基礎，以實獲值管(Earned Value Management)方法做為研究主軸。實獲值管理已發展多年，多被應用於掌控專案各階段之工期，並被學者證實預警能力良好。近年來，有關實獲值管理的相關方法被大量延伸，學者們針對所有方法進行整理及比較，發現實獲時程方法(Earned Schedule Method)在工期推估中的表現良好，儘管它仍有部分使用限制。為解決過去研究指出存在的問題，本研究整理實獲時程方法的使用限制，接著設計模擬案例找出除了方法的選用外，是否還有其他可能之因子亦會對工期推估造成影響，提供使用者可遵循的規則。最後，基於上述模擬結果，本研究提出使用原始實獲時程方法之插值法概念，改善先前研究已建立之實獲時程方法(Earned Schedule Min)在工期推估上無法即時發現非要徑上作業延遲之情境，並進一步統整模擬成果，提出使用限制更少、應用範圍更廣之工期推估方法供使用者參考。經由測試分析確認，本研究提出的方法在工期推估的準確性良好，能夠做為未來專案時程管理工期推估的方法之一。

摘要(英)

Schedule management is a process in which construction projects attach great importance to different stages of a project lifecycle. In Taiwan, the critical path method (CPM) is generally utilized in a project to estimate the duration thereof, but this method is subject to some unsolved restrictions. Thus, some researchers have proposed the earned value management (EVM) method to control the duration of aproject in each stage, and have proven that EVM has a good warning ability of time overrun by forecasting. In recent years, there have been many relative extensions
concerning the index of duration forecasting, and some researchers have compared all methods to find the most accurate one, which is earned schedule management (ESM).
According to the aforementioned, this research will tidy up the restrictions of ESM and then use a simulated project to search for the factors which may affect the accuracy of the ESM-based approach and provide a working rule to users for
reference. Based on the aforementioned simulated results, we use interpolation which is applied in ESM calculation to improve how the existing method’s earned schedule min. (?????) cannot find delay instantly while activity is on a non-critical path. Finally, we look forward and promote project managers applying the improved ESM-based approach to enhance the accuracy of duration forecasting in a construction project.

關鍵字(中)

★ 工期管理
★ 實獲值管理
★ 實獲時程方法

關鍵字(英)

★ Schedule Management
★ Earned Value Method
★ Earned Schedule Method

論文目次

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT i
摘要 ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iii
LIST OF FIGURES vi
LIST OF TABLES viii
Chapter 1 : Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Problem Statements 2
1.3 Research Objectives 3
1.4 Research Scope and Limitations 4
1.5 Research Methodology and Flowchart 4
1.6 List of Abbreviations 7
1.7 Thesis Structure 8
Chapter 2 : Literature Review 10
2.1 With Respect to Earned Value Management 10
2.2 Relative Extensions of Earned Value Management 12
2.2.1 Earned Schedule Management and Earned Duration Management 12
2.2.2 Derivative Methods and Limitations 14
2.3 Impact Factors of ESM for Accuracy of Duration Forecasting 19
2.3.1 Critical or Non-Critical Path 19
2.3.2 Project Seriality 19
2.3.3 Performance Factors 20
2.4 Modified for Improving Existing Deficiencies in EVM 21
2.5 Summary 23
iv
Chapter 3 : Methodology 25
3.1 ESM Premise by a Simulated Project 25
3.2 Evaluation Approach for Forecasting Accuracy 27
3.3 Simulation of Forecasting Duration by Different Methods 28
3.3.1 Selection of ESM Methods and Performance Factors 29
3.3.2 Other Influencing Factors 30
3.3.3 Design of Forecasting simulation 32
3.4 The Improved Concept for Condition 4 35
3.5 Using Primavera Risk Analysis to Confirm the Accuracy of the Improved
Approach 39
Chapter 4 : Results and Discussions 44
4.1 Results Analysis 44
4.1.1 The Choice of ESM Methods and Performance Factors 44
4.1.2 The Unequal SP Degree of the Project 46
4.1.3 Limitations of Existing Method 49
4.2 Results of Simulated Project 51
4.2.1 Outcome Analysis of Condition 1 51
4.2.2 Outcome Analysis of Condition 2 54
4.2.3 Outcome Analysis of Condition 3 56
4.2.4 Outcome Analysis of Condition 4 58
4.3 Results of Improved ESM-Based 61
4.4 Results of Using PRA to Verify the Accuracy of Improved Method 63
4.5 Discussions 65
Chapter 5 : Conclusions and Recommendations 68
5.1 Conclusions 68
5.2 Recommendations 69
REFERENCES 70

參考文獻

[1] Khamooshi, H. and H. Golafshani, EDM: Earned Duration Management, a new approach to schedule performance management and measurement, in International Journal of Project Management. 2014.32(6): p. 1019-1041.
[2] Ballesteros-Pérez, P., et al., Earned Schedule min-max: Two new EVM metrics for monitoring and controlling projects. Automation in Construction, 2019. 103: p. 279-290.
[3] PMI, Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)–Sixth Edition. 2017: Project Management Institute.
[4] De Andrade, P.A. and M. Vanhoucke, Combining EDM and EVM a proposal simplification for project time and cost management. 2017, Mundo Press. p. 94 - 107.
[5] Barrientos-Orellana, A., et al., Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 2021. ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print).
[6] Bruchey, W.J., A Comparison of Earned Value and Earned Schedule Duration Forecast Methods on Department of Defense Major Defense Acquisition Programs. 2012.
[7] Zheng, Q.B. and X. Bi, Optimization on Earned Value Method Combined with Critical Path. Proceedings of 2013 4th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation, IEMI 2013, 2014: p. 707-715.
[8] Elshaer, R., Impact of sensitivity information on the prediction of project′s duration using earned schedule method. International Journal of Project Management, 2013. 31(4): p. 579-588.
[9] Batselier, J. and M. Vanhoucke, Empirical evaluation of earned value management forecasting accuracy for time and cost. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2015. 141(11): p. 05015010.
[10] Chang, C.-J. and S.-W. Yu, Three-Variance Approach for Updating Earned Value Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2018. 144(6): p. 04018045.
[11] Batselier, J. and M. Vanhoucke, Improving project forecast accuracy by integrating earned value management with exponential smoothing and reference class forecasting. International Journal of Project Management, 2017. 35(1): p. 28-43.
[12] 賴姿樺, 營建專案應用既有實獲值方法選用之研究,營建管理研究所. 2019, 71 國立中央大學: 桃園縣. p. 92

指導教授

楊智斌(Jyh-Bin Yang)

審核日期

2022-7-27

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