公司風險事項揭露與分析師盈餘預測誤差-以台灣半導體業為例

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姓名

周宜臻(Yi-Chen Chou) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

會計研究所

論文名稱

公司風險事項揭露與分析師盈餘預測誤差-以台灣半導體業為例
(Firm’s Risk Factor Disclosures and the Analysts’ Forecast Errors: Evidence from Taiwan Semiconductor Industries)

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摘要(中)

本研究以台灣2011年至2021年半導體上市上櫃公司為研究標的，旨在探討風險事項揭露與分析師盈餘預測誤差（以分析師每股盈餘預測平均值扣除公司實際每股盈餘）之影響效果。
研究結果顯示，隨著企業揭露風險事項的增加，分析師的盈餘預測誤差也隨之增加，兩者呈現正相關。換言之，儘管公司透明度提升、風險事項揭露更詳盡，但這些風險事項本身都是負面的資訊。因此，分析師傾向於採取悲觀的態度，預測公司可能面臨風險的盈餘，從而導致他們的預測與實際盈餘之間存在明顯的差距。

摘要(英)

This study focuses on Taiwan′s listed and OTC semiconductor companies from 2011 to 2021, aiming to investigate the impact of risk disclosure on analysts’ earnings forecast errors (measured as the difference between analysts’ predicted average earnings per share and actual earnings per share of the companies).
The research findings indicate that as companies disclose more risk factors, analysts’ earnings forecast errors also increase, showing a positive correlation between the two variables. In other words, despite the improvement in corporate transparency and more detailed risk disclosure, these risk factors themselves are predominantly negative information. As a result, analysts tend to adopt a pessimistic attitude and predict earnings for companies with potential risks, leading to significant disparities between their forecasts and the actual earnings.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師盈餘預測誤差
★ 風險事項揭露
★ 悲觀態度

關鍵字(英)

★ Analysts’ forecast errors
★ Risk factor disclosures
★ Pessimistic attitude

論文目次

目錄
摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
致謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 v
圖目錄 v
第一章緒論 1
第二章文獻探討與假說發展 4
第一節風險事項揭露 4
第二節分析師盈餘預測誤差 7
第三章研究設計 9
第一節樣本選取與資料來源 9
第二節實證模型與變數定義 10
第四章實證結果 19
第一節敘述性統計 19
第二節相關係數 21
第三節實證分析 23
第五章敏感性分析 25
第一節以當年度分析師盈餘預測誤差????（?,?）重新衡量迴歸式 25
第二節改變分析師盈餘預測誤差衡量方式 27
第三節將公司風險事項以揭露數量分群 30
第六章研究結論與建議 33
第一節研究結論 33
第二節研究限制與建議 34

參考文獻

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指導教授

王曉雯(Hsiao-Wen Wang)

審核日期

2023-7-8

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