| 姓名 |
沈佳蓉(Chia-Jung Shen)
查詢紙本館藏 |
畢業系所 |
財務金融學系在職專班 |
| 論文名稱 |
選擇性信用管制政策對房價之影響：桃園市三大重劃區之實證研究
(The Impact of Selective Credit Controls on Housing Prices: An Empirical Study for three readjustment areas in Taoyuan City)
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| 相關論文 | |
| 檔案 |
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| 摘要(中) |
本研究蒐集107年至111年桃園市三大重劃區之實價登錄案例共計15,542筆，利用特徵價格模型，並以最小平方法且控制年份固定效果進行迴歸分析，以探討110年12月開始實施之最新選擇性信用管制政策，對桃園市三大重劃區之房價影響。本研究聚焦於政策實施後，對於桃園市三大重劃區：中正藝文(含藝文)特區、中路重劃區及八德擴大重劃區之房價影響；並探究前項影響是否因建物用途、及特定建物型態有所區別。實證結果顯示，首先，當僅控制年度效果，央行最新信用管制政策看似反而推升三大重劃區房價。其次，若加入控制政策與權狀含「住」建物之交互效果，就三區整體而言，央行最新信用管制政策顯著抑制三大重劃區房價。就個別重劃區來看，央行信用管制政策實施後，主要抑制中正藝文特區與八德重劃區權狀含「住」建物房價。最後，本研究進一步聚焦於政策對於前述兩大重劃區純住宅用途建物型態房價之影響。本研究的實證結果顯示，就中正藝文特區而言，央行最新信用管制政策主要抑制「華廈」與「透天厝」房價，對「住宅大樓」的影響次之；對八德重劃區而言，政策對不同建物型態房價的抑制效果依序為：「華廈」、「住宅大樓」、與「透天厝」房價。本研究認為，相同政策對於不同區域及建物型態的實施效果皆不同，或許是因為區域房價落差，抑或最新政策實施僅一年，政策效果未能完全顯示。本研究意涵在於央行前後實施多項打炒房政策皆未如預期，或許可以將貸款利率等因素納入考量，以增強政策實施力道。 |
| 摘要(英) |
In this study, I collect 15,542 housing-price registrations in the three major readjustment areas (i.e.,Yiwen , Zhonglu, and the Bade expanded areas) of Taoyuan City so as to investigate the impact of the latest selective credit controls on housing prices. The sample of this study covers property transactions from Jan 2018 to Dec 2022, in between the selective credit controls were implemented by the Central Bank in Dec 2021. Details regarding the latest credit controls are: for legal entities and natural persons who purchase to own their third residential property, the maximum loan-to-value ratio is reduced to 40%, which was effective immediately. A hedonic housing price model is employed in this study, where I conduct multiple regression analyses by using the ordinary least square method while controlling foe the annual fixed effect. I also differentiate the policy impacts for if properties are for residential uses. The empirical results are as follows. First, when I only control for the annual fixed effects, the latest credit control policy appears to further push up housing prices in the three readjustment areas. However, after also controlling for the interaction effects between the policy and the “residential” uses of properties, I find the latest credit control policy significantly suppresses housing prices in three major rezones in general. In addition, after conducting respective regressions on three major rezones, it shows that the latest credit controls mainly suppress housing prices with “residential use” in two areas, i.e., Yiwen and Bade rezoning areas only. Specifically, in the Yiwen area, the central bank′s latest credit controls mainly suppress the prices of “condominium” most, and then to those of “town house”, followed by those of “high-rise residential building”. Similarly, in the Bade rezoning area, the latest policy suppresses the prices of “condominium” to the greatest magnitude, while also negatively affect the prices of “high-rise residential building”, followed by those of “town house”. In conclusion, this study indicates that the latest credit controls exhibit different impacts on specific types of building in the three readjustment areas in Taoyuan City. This may due to inherent regional references, or simply because the latest policy has only been in place for about a year and thus the policy impacts are yet to be observed. This study also implies that although the Central Bank has implemented several arounds of credit controls, its policy impacts on housing prices are not as definite as expected. Therefore, other polices, such as an adjustment on mortgage rates, may also be considered to enhance the affordability of property prices in Taiwan. |
| 關鍵字(中) |
★ 選擇性信用管制政策
★ 特徵價格
★ 不動產房價
★ 重劃區 |
關鍵字(英) |
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| 論文目次 |
中文摘要 i
ＡＢＳＲＴＡＣＴ ii
誌 謝 iv
圖目錄 vii
表目錄 viii
一、 緒論 1
1-1研究背景與動機 1
1-2研究目的 5
1-3論文架構 7
1-4研究流程 8
二、文獻回顧及研究假說 9
2-1文獻回顧 9
2-2研究假說 13
三、樣本資料以及研究方法 15
3-1樣本與資料來源 15
3-2變數衡量、定義、實證模型設計 15
3-3實證模型 19
四、實證結果 23
4-1敘述統計量 23
4-2迴歸分析結果 29
五、實證結果討論與結論 42
參考文獻 45
附錄 47
1、平均地權條例修正重點 47
2、三大重劃區簡介 48 |
| 參考文獻 |
中文文獻：
1、張家綺，「都市更新計畫對周邊房價影響之外溢效果-臺灣的實證研究」，國立中央大學，財務金融學系碩士論文，民國110年
2、李佳黛，「房地合一稅2 . 0對不動產價格之影響 ─ 桃園區和桃園三大 重劃區為例」，國立中央大學，財務金融學系碩士論文，民國111年
3、甯翔，「選擇性信用管制對六都和新竹縣市房價的影響」，國立中央大學，經濟學系碩士論文，民國111年
4、郭珮漪，「實價登錄與不動產稅制改革影響不動產市場價量之研究－以北部都會型縣市為例」，國立交通大學，企業管理學系碩士論文，民國108年
5、內政部不動產資訊平台，住宅價格指標，檢索112年5月31日，取自：
https://pip.moi.gov.tw/v3/e/SCRE0106.aspx
6、內政部不動產資訊平台，房價負擔能力指標，檢索112年5月23日，取
自：https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V3/E/SCRE0105.aspx。
7、中央銀行選擇性信用管制報告(110年4月19日)
8、中央銀行對金融機構辦理不動產抵押貸款業務規定(110年12月17日)，
檢索112年4月18日，取自：https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/lp-4217-
1.html。
9、內政部新聞，平均地權條例修正內容，檢索112年5月10日，
取自https://www.moi.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=4&s=275437。
10、住商不動產平均地權條例重點整理，檢索112年5月24日，取自
https://www.hbhousing.com.tw/News/Detail.aspx?Num=5176。
英文文獻：
[1] Ball, M.J., “Recent empirical work on the determinants of relative house price＂, Urban Studies,10(2),213-233,1973.
[2] Court, A. T., Hedonic price indexes with automotive examples in the dynamics of automobile demand., New York,99-117,1939.
[3] Freeman, A. M., “Hedonic prices, property values and measuring Environmental benefits : A survey of the issues＂, Scandinavian Journal of Economics,81(2),154-171,1979.
[4] Lancaster, k. j., “A new approach to consumer theory＂, Journal of political economy,74(2),132-157,1966.
[5] Malpezzi, S., & O’Sullivan, T., Gibb, K. (Eds.), Hedonic pricing models: a selective and applied research. Housing Economics and Public Policy., Blackwell Science, Oxford, 2003
[6] Rosens, S., “Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition＂, Journal of political economy,82(1),34-55,1974.
[7] Sirmans, S., Macpherson, D., & Zietz, E., “The composition of hedonic pricing models ＂,Journal of real estate literature, 13(1), 1-44,2005. |
| 指導教授 |
李丹
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審核日期 |
2023-7-17 |
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