桃園市列管農地重金屬再汙染預測模型之研究

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姓名

葉明忠(Ming-Chung Yeh) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

土木系營建管理碩士班

論文名稱

桃園市列管農地重金屬再汙染預測模型之研究
(Study on Prediction Model for Heavy Metal Recontamination in Regulated Farmland in Taoyuan City)

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摘要(中)

桃園市的土地污染面積在全國排名第二。多年來，雖然政府積極地整治大部分受污染的土地，但土地的特性在不斷變化，仍然容易再次受到污染的威脅。然而，目前尚無專門針對桃園市列管農地重金屬再污染的預測方法。因此，本研究以鎘、銅和鋅這三種重金屬為主，利用Python建立了一個基於土壤監測濃度變化和土壤重金屬濃度增量的隨機森林模型。通過文獻回顧確定模型的相關參數，並收集近18年（2004-2021年）的1555組桃園市列管農地數據，應用了四種常見的演算法進行預測，其中隨機森林表現最佳，準確率為75.76%，誤差率為0.05%，顯示出模型具有一定的可靠性。此外，提出了模型的潛在應用價值，期望未來相關單位能夠利用此模型預測潛在的再污染地點，並由環保單位針對性地部署監測和控制措施，從而避免不必要的廣泛測試，以節省時間、人力和財力等資源。

摘要(英)

Taoyuan City has the second largest area of land pollution in the country. Despite the government′s active efforts over the years to remediate most of the contaminated land, the characteristics of the land continue to change, and farmland remains susceptible to potential recontamination. Currently, there is no dedicated method for predicting heavy metal recontamination specifically for Taoyuan City′s regulated farmland. Therefore, this study focuses on cadmium, copper, and zinc, three heavy metals, to establish a random forest model using Python, based on changes in soil monitoring concentrations and soil heavy metal concentration increments. A comprehensive literature review indicates the factors, followed by data collection which involves 1,555 datasets in recent 18 years (2004-2021). There are four common prediction methods applied and random forest performed the best at an accuracy of 75.76% with 0.05% of error, demonstrating a certain level of reliability. Furthermore, potential applications of the model are proposed, with the hope that relevant agencies in the future can use the constructed model to predict potential recontamination sites and enable targeted deployment of monitoring and control measures by environmental protection units, thereby avoiding unnecessary extensive testing and conserving resources such as time, manpower, and finances.

關鍵字(中)

★ 預測
★ 重金屬
★ 再汙染
★ 農地
★ 汙染

關鍵字(英)

★ Prediction
★ Heavy Metal
★ Recontamination
★ Farmland
★ Pollution

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vii
表目錄 viii
第一章緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究問題 2
1.3 研究目的 2
1.4 研究範圍與限制 2
1.5 研究流程 3
第二章文獻回顧 5
2.1 土地汙染 5
2.2 汙染預測相關文獻 8
2.3 資料探勘 11
2.3.1資料探勘定義 11
2.3.2資料探勘技術種類 12
2.3.3分類 12
2.3.4回歸分析 17
2.3.5分群分析 17
2.3.6關聯法則 19
2.4 小結 23
第三章資料蒐集與處理 24
3.1 資料蒐集 24
3.1.1 資料來源 24
3.1.2桃園市內列管農地污染資料組成與分析 24
3.2 資料前處理與模型建構 29
3.2.1資料前處理 29
3.2.2模型建構 29
第四章模型預測結果 32
4.1 土壤監測濃度變化情形之預測結果 32
4.2 土壤重金屬濃度增量之預測結果 35
4.3 模型應用 37
4.4 預測結果討論 38
第五章結論與建議 39
5.1 結論 39
5.2 建議 40
參考文獻 41

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指導教授

陳介豪(Jieh-Haur Chen)

審核日期

2023-7-12

推文