摘要(英) |
In the fierce market competition, how to predict order delivery time more accurately has become crucial for enterprises. This study takes a domestic industrial computer company as an example to explore the issue of delivery forecast accuracy. The company has long used manual rules of thumb to make delivery forecasts, but the errors have been large, leading to customer complaints and communication difficulties. To solve this problem, this paper proposes an automated delivery prediction method.
The entire process starts from receiving customer requirements to predicting product delivery. By using Excel VBA for scheduling automation, factors such as production capacity, scheduling methods, scheduling rules, materials, etc. are considered to improve the accuracy of delivery forecasts. Research results show that compared to manual prediction, the VBA prediction method is more accurate and stable.
This study highlights the importance of automated tools and methods in delivery forecasting. It is also proposed to integrate the predictive model into the company′s manufacturing execution system to become the prototype of the future optimization system and contribute to the long-term development of the company. |
參考文獻 |
[1] 沈國基、呂俊德、王福川: 《進階 ERP 企業資源規劃:運籌管理》,新北市,前程文化,2006年。
[2] 陳俞安:〈穩健訂單允諾作業流程分析-以某馬達製造業公司為例〉。碩士論文,明新科技大學,2019年。
[3] 傅宏斌:〈啟發式演算法應用於記憶體模組廠SMT排程–以K公司為例〉。碩士論文,國立清華大學,2021年。
[4] 古川順平:《Excel VBA教科書》,顏志融,新北市: 博碩文化,2022年。
[5] 諶升裕:〈以VBA設計異狀處理統計系統之開發-沖床異狀案例〉。碩士論文,大葉大學,2015年。
[6] 李國鵬:〈利用VBA程式設計適合SMT產業之排程系統〉。碩士論文,輔仁大學,2021年。
[7] 陳建銘:〈多廠區緊急訂單承接評估及跨廠產能規劃探討〉。碩士論文,元智大學,2003年。
[8] Weber, C.A., Current, J.R. and Benton, W.C., “Vendor Selection Criteria and Methods,” European Journal of Operational Research,Vol.50, No1, 1991, 2-18.
[9] Kalinowski, K., Grabowik, C., Ćwikła, G., Paprocka, I., Balon, B., “Production orders planning using additional backward pass scheduling approach,” IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, Vol. 400, (6), 2018-09, p.62015
[10] Rahman, S.U., “ Theory of constraints: A review of the philosophy and its applications.,”International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 1998.
[11] Orue, A., Lizarralde, A., Apaolaza, U., &Amorrortu, I.,“Designing the process of implementing step three of the theory of constraints in a make-to-order environment: Integrating sales and operation planning.,”Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management,16(2), 205-214, 2023.
[12] Mabin, V. J.; Balderstone, S. J., “ The performance of the theory of constraints methodology: Analysis and discussion of successful TOC applications.,”International Journal of Operations&Production Management, Vol. 23, Issue: 6, p.568-595, 2003. |