財務揭露語調與預測未來盈餘能力之關聯： 以美國年度報告 10-K 為例

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姓名

李濟瑋(Lee Chi Wei) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

財務揭露語調與預測未來盈餘能力之關聯：以美國年度報告 10-K 為例
(The Relationship Between Financial Disclosure Tone and Future Earnings Prediction: A Case Study of U.S. Annual Reports 10-K)

相關論文

★ 機構投資者類型對ESG資訊揭露之影響與其財務效果

★ 外國機構投資者持股比例對ESG資訊揭露之影響與其經濟效果

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摘要(中)

美國證券交易委員會(SEC)規定上市公司必須每年提交 10-K 形式之年度報告，作為公開的揭露資訊。即使 SEC 有明確規範 10-K 報告中必須記載之事項，但仍留有寫作空間供管理層自由發揮，以至於管理層對文字的控制仍有餘地。現有的文獻普遍認為揭露中正面與樂觀文字有助於市場流動；負面與悲觀的寫作模式會對公司造成意外風險，在此前提下，本研究再度審視是否 10-K 文件中的語調管理會對未來的盈餘影響，將 10-K 報告中正面詞語扣除負面詞語後的淨正語調作為研究變數。在分析 2002至 2018 年間 1,616 家美國公司之 10-K 報告後，本研究發現公司當年度盈餘為正值，且淨正語調使用比例比起上年度更多時，當前盈餘與未來盈餘呈現負相關，但當前股價與未來盈餘呈現正相關。

摘要(英)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) mandates that publicly traded companies must submit an annual report in the form of a 10-K, which serves as publicly disclosed information. Although the SEC has specific requirements for the contents of the 10-K report, there is still some leeway for management to exercise discretion in its writing, allowing for managerial control over the language used. Existing literature generally suggests that positive and optimistic language in disclosures can enhance market liquidity, whereas negative and pessimistic writing styles may pose unforeseen risks to the company.
Against this backdrop, this study re-examines whether tone management in 10-K documents affects future earnings by using the net positive tone—calculated as the number of positive words minus negative words in the 10-K report—as a research variable. Analyzing the 10-K reports of 1,616 U.S. companies from 2002 to 2018, this study finds that when a company’s earnings for the current year are positive and the proportion of net positive tone used is higher than the previous year, current earnings are negatively correlated with future earnings, but current stock prices are positively correlated with future earnings.

關鍵字(中)

★ 揭露資訊
★ 盈餘預測
★ 管理層的操弄
★ 股價預測
★ 管理層的操弄
★ 淨正語調

關鍵字(英)

★ Disclosure Information
★ 10-K
★ Management Manipulation
★ Net Positive Tone
★ Earnings Prediction
★ Stock Price Prediction

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
表目錄 iv
符號說明 v
一、緒論 7
二、文獻回顧 9
2-1 語調對於財務揭露之影響 9
2-2 財務揭露對盈餘資訊性之關聯 11
三、假說建立 13
四、樣本選擇、變數定義、實證模型與實證結果 15
4-1 樣本選擇 15
4-2 變數定義 17
4-3 實證模型 18
4-4 實證結果 21
4-4-1 敘述統計 21
4-4-2 盈餘資訊性之回歸結果 21
4-4-3 股價資訊性之回歸結果 23
五、穩健性測試 25
六、額外測試 31
6-1 正面語調對當期盈餘與股價預測未來盈餘的能力 32
6-2 負面語調對當期盈餘與股價預測未來盈餘的能力 34
七、結論 36
參考文獻 37

參考文獻

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指導教授

曹壽民張東生

審核日期

2024-7-15

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