研發密度對分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響  - 以研發活動敍述性揭露為調節變數

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姓名

黃炳豪(HUANG,PING HAO) 查詢紙本館藏

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會計研究所

論文名稱

研發密度對分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響 - 以研發活動敍述性揭露為調節變數
(The Effect of R&D Intensity on the Accuracy of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: The Moderating Role of Narrative Disclosure of R&D Activities)

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[相關文章]

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[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

至系統瀏覽論文 (2029-7-1以後開放)

摘要(中)

本研究欲探討研發費用對分析師盈餘預測準確度之影響以及研發活動敍述性揭露是
否能消弭當研發密度較高時，存有較高資訊不對稱之問題，使分析師盈餘預測準確度提升，
起到一調節效果。本研究以2010年至2021年臺灣半導體上市上櫃公司作為研究樣本，並
以研發密度作為研發費用之代理變數。
經本研究實證結果發現，研發密度與分析師盈餘預測準度呈顯著負相關，亦即，當
公司之研發密度愈高，產生更多研發活動資訊，可能伴隨著更高的不確定性及資訊不對稱
之問題，分析師盈餘準確度因此下降。更進一步之實證結果顯示:隨研發密度之提升，分
析師盈餘預測準確度將下降之情況，當研發活動敘述揭露之可讀性愈高時，有助於削弱公
司與分析師之資訊不對稱程度，進而使研發密度對分析師盈餘預測準確度之負向影響趨弱。

摘要(英)

This study investigates the impact of R&D expenditures on the accuracy of analysts′ earnings
forecasts and examines the moderating role of the readability of R&D narrative disclosures in
alleviating the higher information asymmetry associated with greater R&D intensity, thereby
enhancing forecast accuracy. Using a sample of listed semiconductor companies in Taiwan from
2010 to 2021, R&D intensity employs R&D expenditures as a proxy for R&D expenditures. Our
empirical results reveal a significant negative correlation between R&D intensity and the accuracy
of analysts′ earnings forecasts. This finding indicates that higher R&D intensity, which generates
more R&D-related information, is likely accompanied by greater uncertainty and information
asymmetry, leading to decreased forecast accuracy. Further empirical results show that as R&D
intensity increases, the readability of R&D narrative disclosures positively moderates this adverse
impact on the accuracy of analysts′ earnings forecasts. Specifically, higher readability of R&D
narrative disclosures helps reduce the information asymmetry between the company and analysts,
thereby weakening the negative effect of R&D intensity on forecast accuracy.

關鍵字(中)

★ 研發費用
★ 研發活動敘述性揭露
★ 分析師盈餘預測
★ 文本分析
★ 半導體

關鍵字(英)

★ R&D Expenditures
★ R&D Narrative Disclosure
★ Analysts′ Earnings Forecasts
★ Textual Analysis
★ Semiconductor

論文目次

目錄
摘要 .................................................................................................................................................. i
Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ ii
致謝 ................................................................................................................................................ iii
第一章緒論 .................................................................................................................................... 1
第二章文獻回顧與假說發展 ........................................................................................................ 7
第一節研發費用與盈餘預測準確度 ........................................................................................ 7
第二節研發活動敘述性揭露可讀性 ...................................................................................... 12
第三章研究設計 .......................................................................................................................... 16
第一節資料來源及樣本篩選 .................................................................................................. 16
第二節實證模型變數定義 ...................................................................................................... 20
第四章實證結果 .......................................................................................................................... 29
第一節敘述性統計及相關係數 .............................................................................................. 29
第二節迴歸分析 ...................................................................................................................... 34
第五章研究結論、限制及建議 .................................................................................................. 37
第一節研究結論與貢獻 .......................................................................................................... 37
第二節研究限制及建議 .......................................................................................................... 37
參考文獻及資料 ........................................................................................................................... 39

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指導教授

王曉雯

審核日期

2024-7-16

推文