Geotechnical reliability analysis with limited data: Consideration of model selection uncertainty

NCUIR > Engineering College > Department of Civil Engineering > journal & Dissertation > Item 987654321/100078

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/100078

Title:	Geotechnical reliability analysis with limited data: Consideration of model selection uncertainty
Authors:	莊長賢;Zhang, J.;Huang, H.W.;Juang, C.H.;Su, W.W.
Contributors:	工學院土木工程學系
Keywords:	Applied sciences;Bayesian theory;Buildings. Public works;Computation methods. Tables. Charts;Earth sciences;Earth, ocean, space;engineering;Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics;Exact sciences and technology;Failure probability;geology;Geotechnics;Model uncertainty;Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc;prediction;Probabilistic method;Slope stability;soil;Soil mechanics. Rocks mechanics;Structural analysis. Stresses;uncertainty
Date:	2014-10-01
Issue Date:	2026-04-21 13:48:31 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Elsevier;Kidlington: Elsevier B.V
Abstract:	摘要： The limited amount of data available in geotechnical practice makes it difficult to identify a unique probability model for the joint distribution of uncertain variables. Yet, the calculated failure probability can be sensitive to the probability model used, even if different models are calibrated based on the same data. The model selection uncertainty is a poorly understood area of research in current geotechnical practice. In this study, we show how to construct candidate probability models based upon the copula theory to more realistically model the soil data with explicit consideration of the possible non-linear dependence relationship between random variables. The authors used a Bayesian method to quantify the model selection uncertainty and to compare the validity of the candidate models. A model averaging method that combines predictions from competing models was then developed to deal with the situation when the effect of model selection uncertainty cannot be neglected. Averaging over the reliability index seems more plausible than averaging over the failure probability in geotechnical reliability analyses. To reduce the computational work, models with significantly less model probabilities can be removed from the model averaging process without an obvious effect on the prediction accuracy. •Importance of geotechnical model selection uncertainty is highlighted•A versatile method is used to develop candidate probability models•Model selection uncertainty is quantified based on Bayes’ theorem•A model combination technique is used to consider model selection uncertainty. 出版者： Kidlington: Elsevier B.V 出版日期： 2014-10-01 出處： Engineering geology, 2014-10, Vol.181, p.27-37 資源來源： Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete 版權： 2014 Elsevier B.V. 版權： 2015 INIST-CNRS 識別號： ISSN: 0013-7952 識別號： EISSN: 1872-6917 識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.08.002 識別號： CODEN: EGGOAO
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Civil Engineering] journal & Dissertation

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