摘要： Unlike earthquake frequency that was proved following the Poisson distribution, seismic hazard (the annual rate of earthquake ground motions) is assumed to be the same type of random variables without tangible support. Instead of using total-probability algorithms currently employed, this study applied Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain the probability function of seismic hazard, and then compared it to the Poisson distribution to see if it is really close to the model prediction as assumed. On the basis of a benchmark calculation, the analysis shows a very good agreement between the two, providing some evidence for the first time that seismic hazard should follow the Poisson distribution, although the relationship has been commonly employed in earthquake studies. •Evidence in support of seismic hazard following Poisson distribution.•A novel application of Monte Carlo Simulation to seismic hazard assessment.•Detailed procedure of the unique Monte Carlo Simulation. 出版者： Elsevier B.V 出版日期： 2015-04-15 出處： Physica A, 2015-04, Vol.424, p.207-216 版權： 2015 Elsevier B.V. 識別號： ISSN: 0378-4371 識別號： EISSN: 1873-2119 識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.01.026
