Bayesian analysis on earthquake magnitude related to an active fault in Taiwan

NCUIR > Engineering College > Department of Civil Engineering > journal & Dissertation > Item 987654321/100325

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/100325

Title:	Bayesian analysis on earthquake magnitude related to an active fault in Taiwan
Authors:	王瑞斌;Wang, J.P.;Chang, Su-Chin;Wu, Yih-Min;Xu, Yun
Contributors:	工學院土木工程學系
Keywords:	Bayesian analysis;Bayesian approach;Earthquake engineering;Earthquake magnitude;Estimates;Faults;Limited observation;Prior data;Rupture;Samples;Seismic phenomena;Statistics
Date:	2015-08-01
Issue Date:	2026-04-21 13:57:37 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Elsevier BV;Elsevier Ltd
Abstract:	摘要： It is understood that sample size could be an issue in earthquake statistical studies, causing the best estimate being too deterministic or less representative derived from limited statistics from observation. Like many Bayesian analyses and estimates, this study shows another novel application of the Bayesian approach to earthquake engineering, using prior data to help compensate the limited observation for the target problem to estimate the magnitude of the recurring Meishan earthquake in central Taiwan. With the Bayesian algorithms developed, the Bayesian analysis suggests that the next major event induced by the Meishan fault in central Taiwan should be in Mw 6.44±0.33, based on one magnitude observation of Mw 6.4 from the last event, along with the prior data including fault length of 14km, rupture width of 15km, rupture area of 216km2, average displacement of 0.7m, slip rate of 6mm/yr, and five earthquake empirical models. •Bayesian analysis on earthquake magnitude related to a high-risk active fault in Taiwan.•Using prior data to compensate limited observation.•New Bayesian algorithms are given in detail. 出版者： Elsevier Ltd 出版日期： 2015-08 出處： Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering (1984), 2015-08, Vol.75, p.18-26 資源來源： Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals 版權： 2015 Elsevier Ltd 識別號： ISSN: 0267-7261 識別號： EISSN: 1879-341X 識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2015.03.025
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Civil Engineering] journal & Dissertation

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