A space-time typhoon trajectories analysis in the vicinity of Taiwan

NCUIR > Engineering College > Department of Civil Engineering > journal & Dissertation > Item 987654321/100356

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/100356

Title:	A space-time typhoon trajectories analysis in the vicinity of Taiwan
Authors:	林遠見;Lin, Yuan-Chien;Chang, Tsang-Jung;Lu, Mong-Ming;Yu, Hwa-Lung
Contributors:	工學院土木工程學系
Keywords:	Aquatic Pollution;Chemistry and Earth Sciences;climate;Climate change;Computational Intelligence;Computer Science;Cyclones;Disasters;Earth and Environmental Science;Earth Sciences;Environment;hurricanes;hydrologic models;Landslides;Landslides & mudslides;linear models;Marine;Math. Appl. in Environmental Science;Mathematical models;Mudflows;Natural disasters;Oceans;Original Paper;Pacific Ocean;Physics;Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes;rain;Rainfall;Rainfall measurement;Rainforests;Scale (ratio);sea level;Sea surface temperature;Seasons;Statistics for Engineering;summer;surface water temperature;Taiwan;Trajectories;Tropical cyclones;Typhoons;Waste Water Technology;Water Management;Water Pollution Control;wind speed
Date:	2015-10-17
Issue Date:	2026-04-21 13:58:52 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Springer New York;Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Abstract:	摘要： Tropical cyclones are one of the most serious natural disasters in northwestern Pacific Ocean. In general, an average of three to four typhoons invades the vicinity of Taiwan annually, which brings heavy rainfalls and strong winds resulting in disasters including flooding, mudflows, and landslides, leading to severe damage to economies and casualties. Studies show that different tracks of typhoon can cause distinct spatio-temporal patterns of rainfall events at different regions of Taiwan. As a result, understanding the trajectories of tropical cyclones and their relationship to climatic variables at global scale is crucial for hydrological modeling and disaster migration in Taiwan, especially under the conditions of climate change. This study applied a probabilistic curve clustering technique, which is based on a regression mixture model, to classify the best tracks of typhoons across the area within 6° around Taiwan during the period of 1951–2009. For the purposes of modeling and forecasting the typhoon trajectories, the track cluster is performed separately in different seasons due to their distinct driving forces to typhoon movements. A generalized linear model (GLM) is used to characterize the relationship between the identified typhoon tracks and the dominant climate features derived from NCEP reanalysis data. Results showed the six major typhoon tracks in the vicinity of Taiwan for different seasons respectively. The result of GLM cross validation showed that the frequency of typhoon tracks passing cross Taiwan in summer can significantly depend upon with two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of sea level pressure, and the third EOF of sea surface temperature. 其他題名： Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 出版者： Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 出版日期： 2015-10-01 出處： Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 2015-10, Vol.29 (7), p.1857-1866 資源來源： Springer Nature - Springer Journals 版權： Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014 版權： Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015 識別號： ISSN: 1436-3240 識別號： EISSN: 1436-3259 識別號： DOI: 10.1007/s00477-014-1001-5
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Civil Engineering] journal & Dissertation

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