Best-Estimate Return Period of the Sanchiao Earthquake in Taipei: Bayesian Approach

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题名:	Best-Estimate Return Period of the Sanchiao Earthquake in Taipei: Bayesian Approach
作者:	王瑞斌;Wang, J. P;Chang, Su-Chin;Xu, Yun
贡献者:	工學院土木工程學系
关键词:	Technical Note;Technical Notes
日期:	2016-02-01
上传时间:	2026-04-21 14:01:49 (UTC+8)
出版者:	American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE);American Society of Civil Engineers
摘要:	摘要： AbstractIt is believed that the Sanchiao fault in Taipei, the most important city in Taiwan, has caused several major earthquakes. In the literature, one study suggested return periods of the Sanchiao earthquake of 543, 568, and 746 years, with another concluding that the active fault should have induced three major earthquakes in a period of 2,600 years in the Holocene. Therefore, like many Bayesian applications, this study aims to develop a novel Bayesian algorithm for integrating the different sources of data to develop a new Bayesian estimate for the target problem. From the analysis, a Bayesian inference suggests a return period of the Sanchiao earthquake in Taipei of 634 years, which, for example, leads to a best-estimate probability of 7.6% for the recurrence of the Sanchiao earthquake in the next 50 years in the most important city in Taiwan. 出版者： American Society of Civil Engineers 出版日期： 2016-02-01 出處： Natural hazards review, 2016-02, Vol.17 (1) 資源來源： Alma/SFX Local Collection 版權： 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers 識別號： ISSN: 1527-6988 識別號： EISSN: 1527-6996 識別號： DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000196
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