Statistical seismic landslide hazard analysis: An example from Taiwan

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题名:	Statistical seismic landslide hazard analysis: An example from Taiwan
作者:	李錫堤;Lee, Chyi-Tyi
贡献者:	地震災害鏈風險評估及管理研究中心
关键词:	Arias intensity;data collection;Earthquake-induced landslides;engineering;geophysics;hazard characterization;Hazards;inventories;landscapes;Landslide hazard;Landslide inventory;Landslide susceptibility;Landslides;Mathematical analysis;Mathematical models;model validation;probability;regression analysis;Roughness;Seismic analysis;Slope gradients;Slopes;Taiwan;topography
日期:	2014-11-09
上传时间:	2026-04-23 11:27:07 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Elsevier;Elsevier B.V
摘要:	摘要： Following the work of Lee et al. (2008a), a statistical approach is applied to seismic landslide hazard analysis for the whole of Taiwan. All the work is done using new data sets, which include a new and carefully mapped Chi-Chi earthquake-induced landslide inventory, a 5-m DEM, and a new version of the 1:50,000-scale geologic map of Taiwan. Landslide causative factors used in the susceptibility analysis include the slope gradient, slope aspect, terrain roughness, slope roughness, total curvature, total slope height, and lithology. The corrected Arias intensity taking topographic amplification into consideration is used as a triggering factor. Firstly, a susceptibility model is built using the 1999 Chi-Chi shallow landslides as a training data set and multivariate logistic regression as the analytical tool. This model is validated by using the 1998 Jueili earthquake-induced landslide data. Then, a probability-of-failure curve is established by comparing the Chi-Chi landslide data and the susceptibility values, after which the spatial probability of landslide occurrence is drawn. The temporal probability may be accounted for with the triggering factor (the hazard level of the Arias intensity), which was obtained through regular probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Finally, the susceptibility model and the probability-of-failure curve are applied to the whole of Taiwan using the topographically corrected 475-year Arias intensity as a triggering factor to complete a seismic shallow-landslide probability map for ground-motions having a 475-year return period. •Statistical seismic landslide hazard model and mapping is introduced.•A 475-year Arias intensity with topographic correction is used in the hazard mapping.•Success rate curve is used to select effective factors for susceptibility analysis. 出版者： Elsevier B.V 出版日期： 2014-11-19 出處： Engineering geology, 2014-11, Vol.182, p.201-212 資源來源： Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete 版權： 2014 Elsevier B.V. 識別號： ISSN: 0013-7952 識別號： EISSN: 1872-6917 識別號： DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.07.023
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