Challenges of anticipating the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami using coastal geology

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Title:	Challenges of anticipating the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami using coastal geology
Authors:	佐竹健治;Sawai, Yuki;Namegaya, Yuichi;Okamura, Yukinobu;Satake, Kenji;Shishikura, Masanobu
Contributors:	地球科學學院地球科學學系
Keywords:	2011 Tohoku earthquake;Coastal;Coastal environments;Coastal landforms;diatom;Earth sciences;Earth, ocean, space;Earthquakes;Exact sciences and technology;Geology;Jogan earthquake;Lowlands;Physical oceanography;Rupture;Sand;Seismic activity;Seismic phenomena;Seismology;Stratigraphy;tsunami deposit;Tsunamis;Weather hazards
Date:	2012-11-01
Issue Date:	2026-04-23 11:30:00 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Wiley-Blackwell;Washington, DC: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Abstract:	摘要： Can the magnitude of a giant earthquake be estimated from paleoseismological data alone? Attempts to estimate the size of the Jogan earthquake of AD 869, whose tsunami affected much of the same coast as the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, offers an excellent opportunity to address this question, which is fundamental to assessing earthquake and tsunami hazards at subduction zones. Between 2004 and 2010, examining stratigraphy at 399 locations beneath paddy fields along 180 km of coast mainly south of Sendai, we learned that a tsunami deposit associated with the AD 869 Jogan earthquake had run inland at least 1.5 km across multiple coastal lowlands, and that one of the lowlands had subsided during the Jogan earthquake and an earlier earthquake as well. Radiocarbon ages just below/above sand deposits left by the pre‐Jogan tsunamis suggested recurrence intervals in the range of 500 to 800 years. Modeling inundation and subsidence, we estimated size of the Jogan earthquake as moment magnitude 8.4 or larger and a fault rupture area 200 km long. We did not consider a longer rupture, like the one in 2011, because coastal landform and absence of a volcanic ash layer make any Jogan layer difficult to identify along the Sanriku coast. Still, Sendai tsunami geology might have reduced casualties by improving evacuation maps and informing public‐awareness campaigns. 其他題名： Geophys. Res. Lett 出版者： Washington, DC: Blackwell Publishing Ltd 出版日期： 2012-11 出處： Geophysical Research Letters, 2012-11, Vol.39 (21), p.L21309--n/a 資源來源： Wiley Online Library - AutoHoldings Journals 版權： 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 版權： 2014 INIST-CNRS 版權： Copyright American Geophysical Union 2012 識別號： ISSN: 0094-8276 識別號： ISSN: 1944-8007 識別號： EISSN: 1944-8007 識別號： DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053692 識別號： CODEN: GPRLAJ
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