Critical parameter estimates for earthquake forecast using PI migration

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题名:	Critical parameter estimates for earthquake forecast using PI migration
作者:	陳建志;Wu, Yi-Hsuan;Rundle, John B.;Chen, Chien-chih
贡献者:	地球科學學院地球科學學系
关键词:	Civil Engineering;Earth and Environmental Science;Earth Sciences;Earthquakes;Environmental Management;Estimates;Geophysics/Geodesy;Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences;Hot spots;Hydrogeology;Intervals;Mathematical models;Migration;Natural Hazards;Optimization;Original Paper;Seismic activity;Seismic phenomena;Seismology;Statistical analysis;Statistical models
日期:	2015-01-01
上传时间:	2026-04-23 11:30:57 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Springer Netherlands;Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
摘要:	摘要： Parameters usually play a key role in statistical forecasting models and should be carefully determined because the physics of the system links to the statistical model through the parameters. To investigate the relations between parameters and pattern informatics (PI) migration, we developed a series of retrospective analyses. The results show that two parameters (i.e., cut magnitude and change interval) are essential factors of calculating PI migration. The cut magnitude is a lower cutoff magnitude applied to the catalog at the start of the analysis, and the result of the analysis shows that the PI migration hot spots are mostly distributed around the earthquakes with magnitude larger than target magnitude when the cut magnitude is 3.2–3.4 in most study regions. The change interval is a time span prior to the large event that we assumed to be the duration of the preparation process. In the retrospective analysis, the ability of PI migration hot spot to hit the target earthquake varies with change interval and the change interval that make PI migration hot spot to hit most target earthquakes varies with the study region. By using a retrospective analysis, we determined the optimal parameters for each study region, generating PI migration maps to show potential locations. 其他題名： Nat Hazards 出版者： Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands 出版日期： 2015-03-01 出處： Natural hazards (Dordrecht), 2015-03, Vol.76 (2), p.1357-1371 資源來源： Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection 版權： Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014 版權： Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015 識別號： ISSN: 0921-030X 識別號： EISSN: 1573-0840 識別號： DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1553-1
显示于类别:	[地球科學學系] 期刊論文

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