Evaluating the RELM test results

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題名:	Evaluating the RELM test results
作者:	李雅渟;Sachs, Michael K.;Lee, Ya-Ting;Turcotte, Donald L.;Holliday, James R.;Rundle, John B.
貢獻者:	地球科學學院地球科學學系
關鍵詞:	Atmospheric sciences;Colleges & universities;Earthquakes;Forecasting;Forecasting techniques;Geophysics;Mathematical models;Performance evaluation;Probability;Seismic activity;Seismic phenomena;Skills;Tornadoes
日期:	2012-09-17
上傳時間:	2026-04-23 11:33:15 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Hindawi Limited;Cairo, Egypt: Hindawi Limiteds
摘要:	摘要： We consider implications of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test results with regard to earthquake forecasting. Prospective forecasts were solicited for M≥4.95 earthquakes in California during the period 2006–2010. During this period 31 earthquakes occurred in the test region with M≥4.95. We consider five forecasts that were submitted for the test. We compare the forecasts utilizing forecast verification methodology developed in the atmospheric sciences, specifically for tornadoes. We utilize a “skill score” based on the forecast scores λfi of occurrence of the test earthquakes. A perfect forecast would have λfi=1, and a random (no skill) forecast would have λfi=2.86×10-3. The best forecasts (largest value of λfi) for the 31 earthquakes had values of λfi=1.24×10-1 to λfi=5.49×10-3. The best mean forecast for all earthquakes was λ̅f=2.84×10-2. The best forecasts are about an order of magnitude better than random forecasts. We discuss the earthquakes, the forecasts, and alternative methods of evaluation of the performance of RELM forecasts. We also discuss the relative merits of alarm-based versus probability-based forecasts. 出版者： Cairo, Egypt: Hindawi Limiteds 出版日期： 2012-01-01 出處： International Journal of Geophysics, 2012-01, Vol.2012 (2012), p.558-565 資源來源： Airiti Library 華藝線上圖書館版權： Copyright © 2012 Michael K. Sachs et al. 版權： Copyright © 2012 Michael K. Sachs et al. Michael K. Sachs et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 識別號： ISSN: 1687-885X 識別號： ISSN: 1687-8868 識別號： EISSN: 1687-8868 識別號： DOI: 10.1155/2012/543482
顯示於類別:	[地球科學學系] 期刊論文

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