How heterogeneous coseismic slip affects regional probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment: A case study in the South China Sea

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題名:	How heterogeneous coseismic slip affects regional probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment: A case study in the South China Sea
作者:	詹忠翰;Li, Linlin;Switzer, Adam D.;Chan, Chung‐Han;Wang, Yu;Weiss, Robert;Qiu, Qiang
貢獻者:	地球科學學院地球科學學系
關鍵詞:	case studies;China;Complexity;Computer simulation;Deformation;Earthquakes;Far fields;Geophysics;Green's function;Green's functions;Hazard assessment;hazard characterization;Marine;Ocean floor;Philippines;Probabilistic methods;Probability theory;Rupture;rupture complexity;Seismic activity;Sensitivity analysis;Size effects;Slip;South China Sea;stochastic;subduction zone;the South China Sea;Tsunami;Tsunami hazard;Tsunamis;Vietnam;Wave amplitude;Weather hazards
日期:	2016-08-01
上傳時間:	2026-04-23 11:35:26 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Wiley-Blackwell;Washington: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
摘要:	摘要： AbstractRupture complexity, typically in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution pattern, significantly affects the local tsunami wave field. However, the effect of rupture complexity is not commonly considered in any form of tsunami hazard assessment. Taking rupture complexity into account significantly increases the computational load, particularly in regional‐scaled probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs) that usually require a large number of simulations based on synthetic scenarios. In this study, we investigate how the heterogeneous slip distribution affects the regional‐scaled PTHA by taking the South China Sea (SCS) as an example. By doing this, we update PTHA for the SCS by incorporating the best available information of seismic tsunamigenic sources along the Manila megathrust. We integrate a stochastic source model into a Monte Carlo‐type simulation, in which a broad range of slip distribution patterns is generated for large numbers of synthetic earthquake events. Green's function technique is employed to efficiently calculate the nearshore tsunami wave amplitude along the SCS coastlines. Our result suggests that for a relatively small and confined region like the SCS, the commonly used approach based on the uniform slip model significantly underestimates tsunami hazard not only in the near‐source region like west Luzon, as expected, but also in the relative far field, such as south China and central Vietnam. Additionally, our sensitivity test of the patch size effects suggests that large patch size is unable to adequately resolve the details of heterogeneous seafloor deformation, and such approaches considerably underestimate the potential tsunami hazard for the SCS coasts. 出版者： Washington: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 出版日期： 2016-08 出處： Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2016-08, Vol.121 (8), p.6250-6272 資源來源： Wiley Online Library 版權： 2016. The Authors. 版權： 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 版權： 2016. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 識別號： ISSN: 2169-9313 識別號： ISSN: 2169-9356 識別號： EISSN: 2169-9356 識別號： DOI: 10.1002/2016jb013111
顯示於類別:	[地球科學學系] 期刊論文

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