Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments

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Title:	Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments
Authors:	詹忠翰;Chan, Chung-Han
Contributors:	地球科學學院地球科學學系
Keywords:	Comparative analysis;Depth;Earthquake forecasting;Earthquake prediction;Earthquakes;Environment models;Forecasting;Friction;Regions;Seismic activity;Seismicity;Seismology;Subduction;Subduction (geology);Three dimensional models;Time dependence
Date:	2016-09-28
Issue Date:	2026-04-23 11:36:10 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	European Geosciences Union;Katlenburg-Lindau: Copernicus Publications
Abstract:	摘要： This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importance of depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates three-dimensional grids, is compared with an approach with two-dimensional cells. Through application to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto, it is shown that the approaches with three-dimensional grids always demonstrate a better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of depth dependency for forecasting, especially for applications to a subduction environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for forecasting models and concludes that time dependency only becomes crucial during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a large earthquake. 出版者： Katlenburg-Lindau: Copernicus Publications 出版日期： 2016-09-28 出處： Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 2016-09, Vol.16 (9), p.2177-2187 資源來源： Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection 版權： COPYRIGHT 2016 Copernicus GmbH 版權： Copyright Copernicus GmbH 2016 版權： 2016. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 識別號： ISSN: 1684-9981 識別號： ISSN: 1561-8633 識別號： EISSN: 1684-9981 識別號： DOI: 10.5194/nhess-16-2177-2016
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Earth Sciences ] journal & Dissertation

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